ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[KWT]

For sure Derek this is most likely 48-72hrs from getting going given the shear that is present at the moment, though the models do seem to indicate it will get itself into some better conditions by Thursday.

[x-y-no]

Plenty of surface obs in the region. Definitely just a wave axis. No surface turning.

Yeah, I don't see anything remotely close to a surface circulation, only a moderate wave axis.

[Dean4Storms]

CMC is showing a major headed up the east coast from the 12z run. One thing for sure, the CMC has been pretty bullish and consistent with this being more than just a weak closed low. Kudo's to the CMC if it turns out to be correct.

[otowntiger]

Plenty of surface obs in the region. Definitely just a wave axis. No surface turning.

Thanks wxman57. That means there is nothing really to see just yet. I would assume that since there is not much of a surface feature or "center" of any sort that any models trying to predict its future motion and development are pretty much just conjecture, right?

[HURAKAN]

505
AXNT20 KNHC 241737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 18
KT. AN INVERTED-V FEATURE IS APPARENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 52W-58W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 82W-89W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW AND S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AND A 1007 MB LOW
OVER PANAMA NEAR 8N78W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W IS BRINGING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ATLC NEAR 26N63W AND AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH TO E NEAR 19N45W. EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
ALONG 56W TO REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDS FROM 29N81W TO
31N80W CONTINUING NNE AS A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AFFECTING THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N63W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 19N45W
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-26N
BETWEEN 60W-67W. SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE E OF THIS AREA IS
SUPPORTED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W...SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH NEAR 36N48W.

$$
WALTON

[Blown Away]

For days these models have been consistent keeping 92L East of Florida. So I would think the odds of 92L going into SFL and GOM are pretty low for now.

[Dean4Storms]

For days these models have been consistent keeping 92L East of Florida. So I would think the odds of 92L going into SFL and GOM are pretty low for now.

Correct on that. The only way I can think of for a threat to FL would be for it to develop further south and/or a stall.

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1757.shtml

[jlauderdal]

For days these models have been consistent keeping 92L East of Florida. So I would think the odds of 92L going into SFL and GOM are pretty low for now.

plenty of agreement on runs but if we are going to go with early model runs then think about all the times florida is in the bullseye early on, using past history, bill comes to mind along with a bag full of others then stay tuned.

[HURAKAN]

Here is what Derek is talking about.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Quite impressive! Fortunately it's quite early.

[cycloneye]

Clearly must have been preparing behind the scenes in case something got going in this region. Makes sense I suppose given the track will probably be towards the northern Bahamas region.

After they worked a lot on Bill,I am sure they are more than ready to start flying again to this new system.

[OuterBanker]

Geeze, CMC went from bad to worse between the 00 and 12 z runs.

Hoping both are dead wrong

[sandyb]

Geeze, CMC went from bad to worse between the 00 and 12 z runs.

Hoping both are dead wrong

personally I do hope we get some of it here on the nc coast line,

[otowntiger]

This system does seem to have a lot of convection to it. If it only had the organization of some of our convectionless systems out east this would certainly be a player. We've had some really organized disturbances with very distict swirls but no convection and they of course went poof. Now we have convection but with no organization. Go figure! I suspect as long as that convection continues to fire like that there will be some surface low develop in the next day or so.

[cycloneye]

OuterBanker,CMC is not alone as NOGAPS has this tracking towards Outerbanks,but more weak.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is more agressive on this system,Tracks towards Carolinas and then rides up the coast.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[SEASON_CANCELED]

ouch. watch out Long island

[otowntiger]

OuterBanker,CMC is not alone as NOGAPS has this tracking towards Outerbanks,but more weak.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

But surprisingly making it pretty strong off the Maine coast. That part to me makes that a little less believeable. If its not going to be that strong down in the tropics or even off the Carolinas, how's it supposed to deepen so rapidly way up by Maine?

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 92, 2009082418, , BEST, 0, 170N, 580W, 20, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

18 UTC BAM Models

SHIP is very bullish as it makes it a hurricane in 96 hours.

169
WHXX01 KWBC 241907
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1907 UTC MON AUG 24 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090824 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090824 1800 090825 0600 090825 1800 090826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 58.0W 18.9N 61.7W 21.2N 64.9W 23.1N 67.2W
BAMD 17.0N 58.0W 19.0N 60.4W 21.0N 62.6W 22.9N 64.4W
BAMM 17.0N 58.0W 18.8N 61.1W 20.8N 63.7W 22.4N 65.6W
LBAR 17.0N 58.0W 18.6N 61.0W 20.4N 63.8W 22.0N 66.4W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090826 1800 090827 1800 090828 1800 090829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.0N 69.4W 28.5N 72.6W 31.5N 73.9W 35.4N 71.8W
BAMD 24.4N 65.9W 26.5N 68.5W 28.1N 70.2W 30.9N 71.0W
BAMM 23.9N 67.4W 26.3N 70.4W 28.6N 72.1W 32.1N 71.6W
LBAR 23.4N 68.5W 25.7N 71.5W 27.7N 72.9W 30.2N 72.6W
SHIP 44KTS 56KTS 67KTS 75KTS
DSHP 44KTS 56KTS 67KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 58.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 50.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM