WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#481 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:JMA 00 UTC Warning:

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 20 October 2009
<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°05'(20.1°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°25'(19.4°)
E126°40'(126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°10'(17.2°)
E119°30'(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

Image


Still looks bad for us.....I hope your forecast(the one missing luzon) is the one that happens for the sake of our country...
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#482 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:JMA 00 UTC Warning:

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 20 October 2009
<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°05'(20.1°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°25'(19.4°)
E126°40'(126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°10'(17.2°)
E119°30'(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

Image


Still looks bad for us.....I hope your forecast(the one missing luzon) is the one that happens for the sake of our country...
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#483 Postby metenthusiast » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:20 pm

the last two cyclones that hit us, Ketsana and Parma, were only Tropical Storms when it hit land. But I'm sure most of you saw the devastation it brought from television, if not first hand..

anyway, I just hope this baby continues to go NW until its high enough to miss Luzon...
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#484 Postby metenthusiast » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:25 pm

oaba09 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:JMA 00 UTC Warning:

Image


Still looks bad for us.....I hope your forecast(the one missing luzon) is the one that happens for the sake of our country...


Indeed. I think the last time I saw that model from JMA, the initial hit is a bit higher to the north. Now it seems that it's lower. If it will hit Wednesday night or Thursday morning (if ever it hits), it's only 2 days out.

Could we now rely on the latest forecast and model tracks as likely to occur?

Thanks guys!
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#485 Postby metenthusiast » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:28 pm

Image

Here's the latest forecast model from our local weather agency, PAGASA. You could see that the track's a bit higher than those from JMA...
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#486 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:29 pm

The 0300z JTWC warning will come out shortly.Lets see if they adjust the track a little more north or they continue to progg the strong subtropical ridge.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#487 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:30 pm

metenthusiast wrote:
oaba09 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:JMA 00 UTC Warning:

Image


Still looks bad for us.....I hope your forecast(the one missing luzon) is the one that happens for the sake of our country...


Indeed. I think the last time I saw that model from JMA, the initial hit is a bit higher to the north. Now it seems that it's lower. If it will hit Wednesday night or Thursday morning (if ever it hits), it's only 2 days out.

Could we now rely on the latest forecast and model tracks as likely to occur?

Thanks guys!


I rely on the JMA and JTWC forecast more compared to my reliance to PAGASA.......Still, I'm hoping that ozonepete's forecast is the one that the typhoon follows...
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#488 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 0300z JTWC warning will come out shortly.Lets see if they adjust the track a little more north or they continue to progg the strong subtropical ridge.


Thanks, cyclone! I can't wait to see it.
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#489 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:13 pm

JTWC site has changed it looks odd!
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Re:

#490 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:18 pm

StormingB81 wrote:JTWC site has changed it looks odd!


Yeah I just saw that. Actually it looks much better. I like it.
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Re: Re:

#491 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:20 pm

ozonepete wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:JTWC site has changed it looks odd!


Yeah I just saw that. Actually it looks much better. I like it.


Same here...It looks more organized
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#492 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:21 pm

From what I can see, another shortwave is pulling it northward again (or in effect preventing it from going due west) and it is also aiding the poleward outflow to the northeast again, thus helping it restrengthen a little once more.
Last edited by ozonepete on Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#493 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:21 pm

Still waiting for the 0300z warning.I like the new view of the site.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#494 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:Still waiting for the 0300z warning.I like the new view of the site.


Me too. Much more pro.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#495 Postby Weather_boi » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:26 pm

I agree with you ozonepete. I was surprised when I tried to view their latest prognostic reasoning this morning. :)
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#496 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:28 pm

question......what time is 0300z here in our country? It's currently 10:25 AM here....
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Re:

#497 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:29 pm

oaba09 wrote:question......what time is 0300z here in our country? It's currently 10:25 AM here....


11 AM.
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Re:

#498 Postby RattleMan » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:29 pm

oaba09 wrote:question......what time is 0300z here in our country? It's currently 10:25 AM here....


The Philippines is UTC+8, so 0300z is 11am your time.
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Re:

#499 Postby metenthusiast » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:31 pm

oaba09 wrote:question......what time is 0300z here in our country? It's currently 10:25 AM here....


+8
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Re: Re:

#500 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:
oaba09 wrote:question......what time is 0300z here in our country? It's currently 10:25 AM here....


11 AM.


Thanks!
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