ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[tgenius]

I'd just think that the media would be disappointed if this fizzled as they wouldn't be able to hype things; Even this morning I saw on the local news (Granted its channel 7) showing the spaghetti models for 90L and how they are all pointing in the westerly direction of S.FL

[Gustywind]

Here is an interresting post by one of our niciest member of the Tent this morning Msbee about 90L. viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&p=1902830#p1902830

I wonder when our good friend Derek Ott is going to start making some comments on Invest 90.
is it too early?
what do you think of this discussion from Rob at crownweather.com

Invest 90L Located South-Southwest Of The Cape Verde Islands:

I am closely monitoring Invest 90L, which is located about 175 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Convection has increased overnight and some nice banding has also developed around 90L. All of the latest forecast guidance continues to forecast significant intensification over the next few days. Based on the satellite appearance this morning, I suspect that 90L will be upgraded to a tropical depression either sometime today or at the latest on Saturday.

The overall track model guidance is forecasting a due west course over the next couple of days with a turn more to the west-northwest by early next week. The track model guidance are all in agreement that 90L poses a threat to the northeastern Caribbean, especially the Lesser Antilles from the islands of Guadeloupe and Dominica and points north and west on Wednesday or Thursday. It should be noted that the GFDL model is forecasting a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday morning and the HWRF model is forecasting that 90L may be a Category 3 hurricane by Wednesday morning.

As for the global models, the GFS model is forecasting an eventual track into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend (Weekend of August 22) after raking the Lesser and Greater Antilles late next week. The European model on the other hand forecasts that 90L will curve into the open Atlantic near 55 West Longitude and miss the Antilles altogether. One thing to note about the European model runs is that it is forecasting that 90L will be near 13 North, 37 West on Sunday night and it is near 28 West right now. So, basically I think the Euro is too slow in its forecast track of 90L and I am discounting the curve out into the open Atlantic near 55 to 60 West Longitude.

So, the idea of a nearly due west track over the next 3 to 4 days seems reasonable given the strength of the high pressure system to the north. After that, a turn a little more to the west-northwest is possible. As for strength, steady strengthening is likely over the next several days and I suspect that this will be classified as a depression within the next 24 to at most 36 hours and then a tropical storm (Ana?) by sometime on Sunday or Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday at the very latest. I expect 90L/Ana to be a major threat to the eastern and especially northeastern Caribbean by Wednesday or Thursday. All interests in the Caribbean Islands, especially from Guadeloupe and Dominica and points north and west should start getting yourselves ready for this potential hurricane around the middle of next week.

Beyond that, it is still way too early to tell exactly where or even if this potential major hurricane will be a threat to the United States. The forecast guidance is still forecasting that a trough of low pressure will be in place over the eastern United States in the day 6 to 10 time period, so Invest 90L/Ana may be pulled northwestward towards the United States. Therefore, this system has the potential to threaten the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida and the East Coast. So, anyone with a vested interest in these areas should keep very close tabs on the progress of this system as it has the potential to make headlines over the next 10 days or so.

[Gustywind]

Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 14, 2009 5:03 am ET
ATLANTIC

[b]A well developed low pressure continues to get better organized in the western tropical Atlantic. As of early this morning it was located around 175 miles southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with this low pressure this morning, and environmental conditions remain favorable for it to become a tropical depression at some point today. If this occurs, it would likely continue moving in a westward direction, but would be no threat to any land for several days.
It remains possible that this low pressure could become the first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which would be Ana.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[jrpsuper123]

another video from accuweather
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... 20Possible

[KWT]

The things I see that might prevent this system from being upgraded today is if the easterly shear over it now increases. Most of the convection this morning appears to be west of the center. Also the center still looks broad and not entirely closed on the QS.

Good observation. That's what I see. Shear is hitting it - the same shear that ripped TD 2 apart. The center is east of the convection. And that convection is still rather weak. I don't think it'll be classified as a TD today unless some major changes occur during the day. And I'm starting to wonder if it'll survive the shear.

We aren't at that stage yet though it is being sheared thats perfectly plain to see for all but its not quite as bad as it was for TD2, not yet anyway.

The 06z GFS does suggest an upper high forming and its possible that is inflicting shear on the system from the east as the upper high starts to form just tothe west of the system.

If it did die, it'd be probably one of the biggest busts I've ever seen, only Chris 2006 would come close to comparing.

[wxman57]

That would be wonderful news. Isn't this (shear) typical of a El Nino type season?

No, not easterly shear in the east Atlantic. This is not related to El Nino.

[tgenius]

The things I see that might prevent this system from being upgraded today is if the easterly shear over it now increases. Most of the convection this morning appears to be west of the center. Also the center still looks broad and not entirely closed on the QS.

Good observation. That's what I see. Shear is hitting it - the same shear that ripped TD 2 apart. The center is east of the convection. And that convection is still rather weak. I don't think it'll be classified as a TD today unless some major changes occur during the day. And I'm starting to wonder if it'll survive the shear.

We aren't at that stage yet though it is being sheared thats perfectly plain to see for all but its not quite as bad as it was for TD2, not yet anyway.

The 06z GFS does suggest an upper high forming and its possible that is inflicting shear on the system from the east as the upper high starts to form just tothe west of the system.

If it did die, it'd be probably one of the biggest busts I've ever seen, only Chris 2006 would come close to comparing.

Thunder44.. unless you are audioslave on Jeff Marsters blog they copied you word for word.:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1278
post 3491

[Frank2]

Definitely doesn't look as impressive as it did yesterday (tons of cool-dry air strato-cu to it's north and northwest):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/vis-l.jpg

[Sanibel]

It seems to be dealing with the same dry air fuel mix problem as TD2.

[StormClouds63]

If it did die, it'd be probably one of the biggest busts I've ever seen, only Chris 2006 would come close to comparing.

Another major bust was Earl from 2004 ... looked like a major hurricane forming in the eastern Caribbean and then poof!

[crm6360]

can someone post a shear map?

[Frank2]

That's it...

Earl is the one that I was trying to think of yesterday - I had mentioned a similar very large wave about 5 years ago that peetered out, and that must be the one you just mentioned...

Hmm...

[Frank2]

Yes, Sanibel, I agree - lettuce hope it stays at 87 octane...

LOL

[KWT]

Yes Earl was another one but at least those made it to TS status, if this one dies from shear then that would be shocking forecasting form the models, esp given nearly every single one makes this a hurricane down the line!!

HWRf maybe on to something as it barely has this at TS strength in 60hrs...

[Thunder44]

Thunder44.. unless you are audioslave on Jeff Marsters blog they copied you word for word.:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1278
post 3491

That's not my quote. It's wxman57's.

Good observation. That's what I see. Shear is hitting it - the same shear that ripped TD 2 apart. The center is east of the convection. And that convection is still rather weak. I don't think it'll be classified as a TD today unless some major changes occur during the day. And I'm starting to wonder if it'll survive the shear.

[Stormcenter]

Ah yes Chris now that was a MAJOR bust.

The things I see that might prevent this system from being upgraded today is if the easterly shear over it now increases. Most of the convection this morning appears to be west of the center. Also the center still looks broad and not entirely closed on the QS.

Good observation. That's what I see. Shear is hitting it - the same shear that ripped TD 2 apart. The center is east of the convection. And that convection is still rather weak. I don't think it'll be classified as a TD today unless some major changes occur during the day. And I'm starting to wonder if it'll survive the shear.

We aren't at that stage yet though it is being sheared thats perfectly plain to see for all but its not quite as bad as it was for TD2, not yet anyway.

The 06z GFS does suggest an upper high forming and its possible that is inflicting shear on the system from the east as the upper high starts to form just tothe west of the system.

If it did die, it'd be probably one of the biggest busts I've ever seen, only Chris 2006 would come close to comparing.

[JPmia]

How much shear is getting from the east?

[Bocadude85]

Well what are the chances of this just poofing?

[tgenius]

Thunder44.. unless you are audioslave on Jeff Marsters blog they copied you word for word.:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1278
post 3491

That's not my quote. It's wxman57's.

Good observation. That's what I see. Shear is hitting it - the same shear that ripped TD 2 apart. The center is east of the convection. And that convection is still rather weak. I don't think it'll be classified as a TD today unless some major changes occur during the day. And I'm starting to wonder if it'll survive the shear.

wxman... they are then taking your words verbatim.

[MWatkins]

While there is some easterly shear, there is plenty of moisture in the envelope. In addition, the size and structure of the wave envelope is larger and much better defined than TD2 (which, by the way, doesn't look bad).

Unfortunately I don't see this one dissapating.

MW