ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[deltadog03]

To be honest I think the carib will be closed for bizness the rest of the season. We might see a cape storm or 2, but its going to have to be home brew IMO the rest of the year.

[Sanibel]

My guess is the northern jet will eventually settle out and cause a pocket that allows storms to form in the SW Caribbean.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Odd season in a good way, no catastrophes so far. Hard to belive though even with the pattern, that there won't be "one" that is trouble. Even in low activity years in the Atl basin, there is usually one. Not going to be Erika though

[cycloneye]

To be honest I think the carib will be closed for bizness the rest of the season. We might see a cape storm or 2, but its going to have to be home brew IMO the rest of the year.

Even in october when Western Caribbean systems tend to form?

[Derek Ortt]

you don't get that many WC storms in October of el nino years

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

000
WTNT41 KNHC 040232
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

ERIKA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ON SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR. IN ADDITION...RAOB FROM THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIKA THAT HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BY TRACING THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ON SATELLITE...ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE
THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF EVEN STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM
DECOUPLED AND WILL LIKELY REMOVE ALL THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT
COULD REDEVELOP. BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
DEFINED...CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
RISING AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED...ERIKA IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A
REMNANT LOW...AND COULD DEGENERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERIKA
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCUR.

THE REMANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD STILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 16.8N 65.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 04/1200Z 17.0N 66.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 67.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

Final advisory written.

[Macrocane]

I think that if we are going to have a Caribbean storm this season it will be on late september as it was the case with Isidore. As Derek said, during El Niño octobers the Caribbean is less active than normal.

[artist]

you know btangy pretty much called this a couple of nights ago when he spelled out all the conditions he saw and why this would not get going near its present position. Good job!

[Derek Ortt]

NEXT STORM PLEASE... AND DON'T MAKE IT ANOTHER STORM THAT FLOODS THE ISLANDS

[mattpetre]

Since wxman57 has declared this dead, I guess it's about time for me to make my completely unscientifically based statement that Erika is not dead yet and that despite Trekkie powers that I will never understand that she will still be a force to be reckoned with on the SE US coast (I'm guessing somewhere between FL and NC.) We'll see... BTW I do believe wxman has all the science and met expertise on his side, but I have a little bit of sometimes working intuition.

[Brent]

NEXT STORM PLEASE... AND DON'T MAKE IT ANOTHER STORM THAT FLOODS THE ISLANDS

Or another weak naked swirl. I am so over this waste of time season. Bring on winter!

[expat2carib]

NEXT STORM PLEASE... AND DON'T MAKE IT ANOTHER STORM THAT FLOODS THE ISLANDS

I rest my case.............. but............

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

boy I like radars.

This chart looks like its heading toward central America.

Compare it to this one. When you compare the difference, you can see the shear & shows why this is constantly getting ripped apart:


Shot at 2009-09-03

Thanks for pointing that out, now the pressures and flow patterns have kinda "klicked" some one else posted that after reading all this discussion your really do begin understanding "weather stuff" bit by bit from amateures and pros. Its cool to master a thing but knowing just a little about a lot of things is kinda cool too. As well as drying up this year maybe we'll freeze up this winter. SNOW if no rain, teh hay with the tropics.

lrak AKA karl

[kat61]

Can anyone explain the 'purpose' of a hurricane and how it assists the planet to sustain itself?
I'm a newbie and trying to understand the significance of the science. Or tell me where to ask these questions because I know it's off the topic.

[lrak]

They're big air conditioners.

basically they suck the heat off the oceans and spread that concentration up up and up into the atmosphere to cool off.

[Stormcenter]

R.I.P. Erika you never had a chance. IMO

[btangy]

Can anyone explain the 'purpose' of a hurricane and how it assists the planet to sustain itself?
I'm a newbie and trying to understand the significance of the science. Or tell me where to ask these questions because I know it's off the topic.

That's a good question and nobody really knows what role hurricanes have in Earth's climate. Why there are a certain number of them every year around the world (about 90)? Why not 900? They don't really transport much heat poleward like storms in the mid-latitudes do. One possibility is that they do affect the ocean heat transport by mixing warmer water downwards (bringing cooler water upwards), but that's a bit controversial in the science community. You've touched on a subject that has befuddled hurricane researchers for a long long time.

[kat61]

They're big air conditioners.

there are many explainations on the web but I was wondering where the best research journals could be located. OR books....Tx s much!

[deltadog03]

Can anyone explain the 'purpose' of a hurricane and how it assists the planet to sustain itself?
I'm a newbie and trying to understand the significance of the science. Or tell me where to ask these questions because I know it's off the topic.

The purpose of canes are to distribute HEAT from the tropics to the mid-lattitudes