ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Gustywind]

Good news in my island of Guadeloupe, yellow alert has been disrupted...so we're back to green code
Tkanks all my friends on this board, i appreciate all of your nice thoughts and prayers.
Time to say that i'm glad to be here since 2 years as i'm first reply was on the 3rd of September 2007, nice " BIRTHDAY" hopefully ERIKA heared me and prefers to stay modest and i'm proud to see that nothing too bad affected Guadeloupe.
Here is my official date of "BIRTHDAY" Board presence Gustywind:
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007
Nice regards from Guadeloupe, Gustywind
Hope that my presence could bring good infos, friendly links and humor

This is the best part of Storm2K! Congrats, Gusty, and Happy Birthday!!

typo

Tkank you very much i appreciate my US friend. It's a pleasure to discuss the weather here with all my friends...in spite of our differents roots, hope that we could sincerely developp friendly links here

[Typhoon_Willie]

Glad to see you are doing ok there Gustywind!

[Gustywind]

Good news in my island of Guadeloupe... back to green code ... first reply was on the 3rd of September 2007,

Glad you gotten through another one Gustywind ... thanks again for all your input
and information sharing from your up close and personal viewpoint ..... Salute to your anniversay here on the board ... may you have many many more years of storm tracking analysis

smiling post that's pretty nice to read that and i appreciate sincerely. I try to do my best, i'm pushing my self everytime as possible to give you more infos in the islands as many of our carib members: Cycloneye, Msbee, HUC, Fego, Expat2carib, Abajan, HurricaneMasterPr, CaribPr, Firebird, Caribsue...and the others. They're a part of me when i discovered this board there's two years ago. My "birthday" is a long way to improve my analysis on the weather forecast not easy but surely fascinating.
Tkanks Cuber

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

boy I like radars.

This chart looks like its heading toward central America.

[Gustywind]

Glad to see you are doing ok there Gustywind!

Oh yeah tkanks very nice to be here and glad to see all these infos in live...it's the BIG WEATHER FAMILY i tkink afterwards

[ddad040]

Depression in the Caribbean. New set of rules. Shear very much more defined. Now maybe she will go through a normal progress of development. Then again maybe not.

[Sanibel]

Just waiting for that convection to expand into a giant crows nest shape...

[ddad040]

D Max is going to be interesting tonight. Baby has been kicked out of the nest.

[wzrgirl1]

Even TD's can cause issues. I would still pay attention if you are near the threat area. Can't count anything out until it's officially dead...which it isn't yet. Stranger things have happened.

[Sanibel]

[wzrgirl1]

looks like an alien

[Aric Dunn]

the circ is collapsing it appears..

not sure what its going to do..

[jasons2k]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

boy I like radars.

This chart looks like its heading toward central America.

Compare it to this one. When you compare the difference, you can see the shear & shows why this is constantly getting ripped apart:


Shot at 2009-09-03

[Sanibel]

Admittedly it should be expanding faster by now. Could be on an Ana poof run.

[jasons2k]

And notice the difference in the Bahamas (the flows are parallel)

[ddad040]

It appears the llc is trying to break off the mid level circulation. Will and can the llc survive on its own? Then what will happen to the mid level circulation?

[Aric Dunn]

pretty sure its over everyone.. till maybe a couple days

radar signature is falling apart along with the circ on sat..

[jasons2k]

It appears the llc is trying to break off the mid level circulation. Will and can the llc survive on its own?

Not without any deep convection forming around it.

Then what will happen to the mid level circulation?

It depends. It could work to the surface or it could slowly die off.

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, it looks mighty weak, but there is still a closed circulation if you believe the QScat:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 1_06as.png

[wxman57]

Hard to tell, but I think the weak LLC is gone now. Convection around the MLC is weakening. NHC may call it dissipated in the next hour.