EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[baitism]

Could this shoot up the Gulf of California and impact the US Southwest heavily?

It could impact the US SW with some heavy rain and flooding. But, it will not be a wind event by then.

[btangy]

12Z ECMWF ensemble and operational run is right in line with the consensus forecast showing landfall less than 36 hours from now around the Isla Santa Margarita. Track is high confidence. Considerable impact to Cabo San Lucas and La Paz, especially if there is any deviation to the right of the forecast track.

[Cyclenall]

Post season upgrade to cat 5.

It's pretty much certain, perhaps on 2 occasions. I believe it was Cat 5 for a while yesterday as well. I'm sure some at the NHC wanted to bump this up to 140 kt for the advisory, but it is tough to break that psychological barrier.

I agree, Saturday I think it was around 145-150 knots at 13:30 UTC and a weak category 5 hurricane yesterday around 23:00 UTC (140 knots). I was glad to see the NHC state it could have been one today, I feel confident that a post-season upgrade will happen.

30% of a category 5 on the wind speed probability table in the next 12 hours...that's impressive. It must be because of the forecast for 135 knots still.

[fasterdisaster]

Could this shoot up the Gulf of California and impact the US Southwest heavily?

It could impact the US SW with some heavy rain and flooding. But, it will not be a wind event by then.

Actually, San Diego is in the cone. It's possible it could hit there as a Category 1. Not likely by any means but not out of the realm of possibility.

[fasterdisaster]

So what are Jimena's chances of being retired?

[RL3AO]

Could this shoot up the Gulf of California and impact the US Southwest heavily?

It could impact the US SW with some heavy rain and flooding. But, it will not be a wind event by then.

Actually, San Diego is in the cone. It's possible it could hit there as a Category 1. Not likely by any means but not out of the realm of possibility.

A hurricane would never survive to San Diego. The water is just too cold.

[Derek Ortt]

you'd need an unusually strong trough to get a cane into California

or the el nino of 1997 wher ethe 80F isotherm extended most of the way up the Baja

[Cyclenall]

So what are Jimena's chances of being retired?

The storm hasn't hit yet. You also can't count on this storm being retired for intensity only because we know what happened with Emily from 2005.

[fasterdisaster]

A hurricane would never survive to San Diego. The water is just too cold.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_Hurricane

Never say never.

[RL3AO]

Fine, rarely.

[Derek Ortt]

a cat 3 hitting the WC of Mexico usually is NOT retired

John and Lane were not retired in 2006. There have been many other cat 3s not retired that have struck Mexico

[somethingfunny]

Also don't forget whose name is coming up after Kevin. It's very uncommon to see a retirement in the EPAC. But we'll have to see what happens with Jimena.

[fasterdisaster]

Also don't forget whose name is coming up after Kevin. It's very uncommon to see a retirement in the EPAC. But we'll have to see what happens with Jimena.

Linda didn't hit land though (other than Socorro Island)

[bob rulz]

A hurricane would never survive to San Diego. The water is just too cold.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_Hurricane

Never say never.

There is no chance (Repeat: NO CHANCE) that a hurricane could survive in the current conditions all the way north to the Channel Islands or even San Diego. You would have to have an exceptionally powerful El Nino.

[bob rulz]

On another note, this has the potential to be one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to make landfall in Baja California. I'm sure the residents there are taking this very seriously, and I hope so too, for their sake.

[HURAKAN]

Surprised they kept the intensity at 155 mph because it looks a lot less organized

[HURAKAN]

Pinhole eye no more

[Chacor]

Recon pass is scheduled for 1500z.

[Chacor]

URNT15 KNHC 011025
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 08 20090901
101530 2938N 09312W 3923 07710 0390 -195 -394 309015 016 999 999 03
101600 2938N 09315W 3925 07708 0390 -195 -411 316017 017 999 999 03
101630 2938N 09317W 3923 07710 0389 -195 -400 316016 017 999 999 03
101700 2938N 09320W 3923 07710 0389 -195 -402 313016 016 999 999 03
101730 2938N 09323W 3923 07709 0389 -191 -409 313016 017 999 999 03
101800 2938N 09325W 3923 07710 0390 -191 -389 311016 016 999 999 03
101830 2938N 09328W 3923 07712 0391 -194 -405 308016 016 999 999 03
101900 2938N 09331W 3923 07712 0390 -195 -433 306015 015 999 999 03
101930 2938N 09333W 3923 07709 0390 -195 -427 303015 015 999 999 03
102000 2938N 09336W 3923 07710 0389 -193 -397 303015 015 999 999 03
102030 2938N 09339W 3923 07710 0390 -191 -397 303015 015 999 999 03
102100 2938N 09341W 3922 07712 0390 -195 -413 305016 016 999 999 03
102130 2938N 09344W 3923 07710 0390 -195 -413 307015 015 999 999 03
102200 2938N 09347W 3923 07708 0389 -195 -407 308014 014 999 999 03
102230 2938N 09349W 3923 07709 0388 -195 -399 307014 015 999 999 03
102300 2938N 09352W 3923 07708 0387 -191 -394 311017 018 999 999 03
102330 2939N 09355W 3923 07709 0388 -191 -358 311016 017 999 999 03
102400 2939N 09357W 3923 07709 0388 -195 -370 307014 014 999 999 03
102430 2939N 09400W 3923 07709 0389 -195 -415 304013 013 999 999 03
102500 2939N 09403W 3923 07710 0390 -195 -428 303013 013 999 999 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

Jimena could put an end to the fires in California