ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[Evil Jeremy]

but as we know we cannot write off systems till they are inland

coughIvancough

I say, you cant write off a storm until a week after its circulation has been discarded lol. And don't come to conclusions either. Wasnt there a storm about a month or so ago that no one thought would come close to the Western Atlantic?

[Aric Dunn]

but as we know we cannot write off systems till they are inland

coughIvancough

I say, you cant write off a storm until a week after its circulation has been discarded lol. And don't come to conclusions either. Wasnt there a storm about a month or so ago that no one thought would come close to the Western Atlantic?

hehe.. yeah what was the name of that hmmmm.... I wonder lol

[Evil Jeremy]

11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 7
Location: 18.9°N 57.4°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Derek Ortt]

now it looks no different from Danny and Erika

[wxman57]

Derek,

You think this actually has 40kt sustained wind somewhere? Even 35 kt? Looks like a remnant low now. Would the NHC ever upgrade something that looks like this to a TS?

[HURAKAN]

If it doesn't flare in the next few hours, then it's doomed!

[Derek Ortt]

Derek,

You think this actually has 40kt sustained wind somewhere? Even 35 kt? Looks like a remnant low now. Would the NHC ever upgrade something that looks like this to a TS?

it probably does not have 40KT, except maybe due to a thunderstorm downdraft

even the KF CP couldn't get this thing to intensify

[wxman57]

KF CP = Kentucky Fried Chicken People? That's just what popped into my head first. Must be lunch time.

[tolakram]

I'd feel a lot better about it if the convection would poof. Still extremely deep convection SE of the center plus increasing activity in some of those inflow bands.

The other sheared systems this year could not keep this kind of deep convection going, anywhere.

Shear analysis indicates increasing shear again.



Check back in 3 hours.

[wxman57]

New shot. Don't see how this could possibly have TS winds. There's just no inflow into the center and not much of a pressure gradient to produce winds to the east and southeast. 30kts NE of the center due to the pressure gradient between Henri and the high pressure to the northeast. That's about it.

I measure a 3-hr movement of the low-level swirl to 285 deg at 16.6 kts. It's separating farther from the convection now. Time for a downgrade.

[deltadog03]

maybe they are filling there quota for the year wxman??

[cycloneye]

Is that the primary circulation or there may be another one under the convection? I ask as I see some inflow towards the convection.

[Derek Ortt]

KF CP = Kentucky Fried Chicken People? That's just what popped into my head first. Must be lunch time.

LOL

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 57.4W AT 07/1500
UTC...OR ABOUT 325 NM E OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT
13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 54W-56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 52W-57W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$
LEWITSKY/HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC WED OCT 7 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRI (AL102009) 20091007 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091007 1800 091008 0600 091008 1800 091009 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 57.8W 20.1N 60.2W 20.9N 62.1W 21.1N 63.8W
BAMD 19.1N 57.8W 20.2N 59.4W 21.1N 60.7W 21.1N 61.9W
BAMM 19.1N 57.8W 19.9N 59.8W 20.6N 61.5W 20.5N 63.1W
LBAR 19.1N 57.8W 20.4N 59.5W 21.7N 60.7W 22.5N 61.1W
SHIP 40KTS 37KTS 35KTS 34KTS
DSHP 40KTS 37KTS 35KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091009 1800 091010 1800 091011 1800 091012 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.1N 66.0W 21.2N 71.2W 22.2N 76.8W 23.7N 81.1W
BAMD 20.5N 64.1W 20.3N 70.5W 22.0N 76.6W 23.4N 80.3W
BAMM 20.2N 65.7W 20.4N 72.4W 21.8N 78.4W 23.3N 82.3W
LBAR 22.1N 61.1W 20.9N 62.1W 20.4N 65.9W 20.5N 71.9W
SHIP 38KTS 46KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 38KTS 46KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 55.6W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 53.4W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 135NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

Not bursting like yesterday

[vbhoutex]

Looks like it is falling apart to me. Agree that it appears to be time for a downgrade.

[Rainband]

Good news

[Aric Dunn]

Is that the primary circulation or there may be another one under the convection? I ask as I see some inflow towards the convection.

actually thats exactly what it is .. as you can see another vort just got spit out from the convection!! both are rotating around a mean center that is slightly closer to the convection ..