ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[curtadams]

The CMC is bullish, sometimes crazily so, but it's decent on track. It used to have a problem with northbound phantomcanes, but that seems to have been fixed. The performance on Bill was very impressive.

That zigzag on the track is really strange though.

[tolakram]

The CMC is bullish, sometimes crazily so, but it's decent on track. It used to have a problem with northbound phantomcanes, but that seems to have been fixed. The performance on Bill was very impressive.

That zigzag on the track is really strange though.

The Canadian had some pretty major tweaks done during the off season and is a much different beast this year. I have no idea if it's any good or not, but I think it's time people stop calling it the worst.

[otowntiger]

if there is a large spread in the BAM suite, it is because of different winds at different levels of the atmosphere

And is there a large spread in the BAM suite?

[Derek Ortt]

there are about 1000 miles apart. That is major spread

[Blown Away]

I think I'm going to like this wave. Yesterday folks were saying it's a recurve because it's to far north coming off Africa. What did 94L do, move WSW and now we are talking about a low rider. Shake the bugs off the shutters and fire up the generators, I think Erika is on her way and she has an attitude!!
j/k of course!

[cycloneye]

Will this be like the Erika 1997 in track and strengh?

[Cryomaniac]

I think Erika is on her way and she has an attitude!!
j/k of course!

The first thing that came to mind when I saw that the next name was Erika was the insanely powerful mage Erika Redmark from the Exile series of RPGs, which may not be a good thing.

[Gustywind]

Moist air should not be a problem, plenty of moisture surronding this feature...

[Stormcenter]

94L is moving so slow that it may be around Halloween
until she nears any land.

The red IR and slight curvature are the give aways. I think the board will be busy in a couple of days over this one.

[Gustywind]

94L is moving so slow that it may be around Halloween
until she nears any land.

The red IR and slight curvature are the give aways. I think the board will be busy in a couple of days over this one.

Hope you're joking but if you were living in the Lesser Antilles you won't say this type of statement when you see an Invest at very low on latitude!

[caribsue]

Gustywind ..... you read my mind, I also guessing that when they are talking about nearing land they are talking about the continental US as well.

[Gustywind]

So are the models now starting to latch onto this thing? Have they not been too bullish on it so far? What are the indications of this one being a fish? I'm sorry I have to ask because I can't easily interpret the above data.

Models suggest an approach to Lesser Antilles.See graphic that HURAKAN posted above your post.Also the models intensify to hurricane.

Something to monitor Cycloneye... i hate Invest at low latitude in late August. Given the first plots...seems that Lesser Antilles could be virtually (should it verifies first) impacted by this feature during the next couple of days, let's wait a bit the next runs to have a better idea of 94L.

[otowntiger]

there are about 1000 miles apart. That is major spread

So that translates to a lot of potential shear down the road for this system? Is that why the models have not exactly embraced 94L?

[Gustywind]

Gustywind ..... you read my mind, I also guessing that when they are talking about nearing land they are talking about the continental US as well.

yeah Caribsue ...i hope that! Whereas our friends from the USA seems to forgot the carib islanders, often first concerned, don't forget us please ...

[cycloneye]

Gustywind ..... you read my mind, I also guessing that when they are talking about nearing land they are talking about the continental US as well.

yeah Caribsue ...i hope that! Whereas our friends from the USA seems to forgot the carib islanders, often first concerned, don't forget us please ...

I think we are not forgotten at all. Gusty,you are right about the USA thing.

[artist]

I think that those that have not visited an island tend to forget they are there, but not purposely. I know you guys are always on my mind when anything is out there. Hopefully this one will be a fish for everyone!

[MGC]

Good looking wave....lets see if it holds together as it moves westward.....MGC

[AtlanticWind]

94L is moving so slow that it may be around Halloween
until she nears any land.

The red IR and slight curvature are the give aways. I think the board will be busy in a couple of days over this one.

94L is moving 10 to 15 Mph That is not slow , about average for a wave in the mid atlantic

[AtlanticWind]

there are about 1000 miles apart. That is major spread

So that translates to a lot of potential shear down the road for this system? Is that why the models have not exactly embraced 94L?

The BAMM spread is in the later periods of the run , shear is low now , the BAMMs are not that reliable in the longer periods.

[Gustywind]

Gustywind ..... you read my mind, I also guessing that when they are talking about nearing land they are talking about the continental US as well.

yeah Caribsue ...i hope that! Whereas our friends from the USA seems to forgot the carib islanders, often first concerned, don't forget us please ...

I think we are not forgotten at all. Gusty,you are right about the USA thing.

Yeah Luis you're right, tkanks for the USA thing, whereas as usual my PR friend: " let's take it easy :cheesy:"