ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[jrpsuper123]

HWRF invest90l 2009081306
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[lonelymike]

Anyone got a historical map for 90L?

[KWT]

Looks to me like thats a pretty decent run in terms of track, though its hard to tell about the strength forecast it has to be said.

Still models this morning suggesting a lower chance of a Ne Caribbean hit, I still think the models are weakening the high a touch too quickly, something they tend to do quite often as well.

[KWT]

Looks like most models now trying to take this WNW before the Caribbean which would spare the islands...still too early to know if that will happen, esp given the models overdid the last weakness as well.

[Gustywind]

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
13/1145 UTC 11.3N 22.6W T1.0/1.0 90L

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL site:
11 UTC 11,5 N 22,0 W 1009 hpa 25 KTS

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[KWT]

The estimates aren't that far apart really, still thats about where Qscat was suggesting the center to be.

Its got quite an interesting structure, two feeder bands but nothing really over the center.

Will also be interesting to see the motion it has over the next 12-24hrs, as the ECM suggests there won't be much if any at all...which seems to have happened over the last 6hrs...if so then that relaly does lend a huge amount of weight to the recurve idea.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track.

AL, 90, 2009081312, , BEST, 0, 116N, 225W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Derek Ortt]

the latest models do give me some pause about this developing now (what was that about nothing really until the end of August...)

Still... we need more model runs to be sure

[ronjon]

TAFB 72 hr forecast. Almost to 40W by then.

[cycloneye]

989
WHXX01 KWBC 131247
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC THU AUG 13 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090813 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090813 1200 090814 0000 090814 1200 090815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 22.5W 12.5N 25.1W 13.0N 28.5W 13.5N 32.3W
BAMD 11.6N 22.5W 12.0N 25.1W 12.3N 27.9W 12.4N 30.8W
BAMM 11.6N 22.5W 12.2N 25.0W 12.5N 27.9W 12.7N 31.2W
LBAR 11.6N 22.5W 12.0N 24.6W 12.2N 27.3W 12.4N 30.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090815 1200 090816 1200 090817 1200 090818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 36.6W 15.5N 47.2W 19.0N 59.9W 22.9N 69.5W
BAMD 12.5N 34.0W 12.9N 41.1W 13.5N 48.5W 13.8N 55.1W
BAMM 12.9N 34.7W 13.6N 42.6W 14.6N 51.5W 15.7N 60.7W
LBAR 12.6N 33.8W 13.4N 42.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 66KTS 71KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 66KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 22.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 21.1W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 19.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Moving west at 7kts and models start to go up in latitud from 96 hours.

[AtlanticWind]

Hwrf has it as a pretty much just north of due west across the atlantic, What i can see on the Gfdl as it drops it early than picks it up again is about the same westerly track . I would discount the Gfs for now.

[KWT]

the latest models do give me some pause about this developing now (what was that about nothing really until the end of August...)

Still... we need more model runs to be sure

All the models are still developing something its just the 06z GFS threw a very strange run out, can't decide what center it wants to form.

The ECM forms this still just stalls it south of the Cape Verde islands till tomorrow morning.

So most do still form it (even the 06z GFS) it just they disagree about placement of it, not surprising given its a broad ole thing. The only one that doesn't is the 06z GFDL but with a very baffling 06z GFS run thats not all that shocking.

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS indicates a blast of northerly shear at the end of the run

[Derek Ortt]

Guys... take a look at 950mb vorticity... it is forming 90L, but splits it into 2 cyclones

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

not sure how believable this is

[Derek Ortt]

see the model thread, GFS splits this into 2 cyclones (shaded of some NOGAPS runs from 2004)

[KWT]

Yeah its a very odd run from the GFS indeed, it seems like it can't quite decide what region to develop. I'm guessing the fact its a broad low isn't helping matters.

Thats why I said to discard the 06z run till we see what the 12z does.

[cycloneye]

I dont see the blast of above 30kt shear in the run.Right now 21kt shear according to SHIP and by the end is at 17kts.

Code: Select all

 ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED        *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL902009  08/13/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120

SHEAR (KT)        21    22    15     9    12    17    14    11    17    13    21    13    17


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

[wxman57]

certainly is a very odd run I have to admit, its closer to the ECM mind you with the system heading further north and also a good deal slower then the 0z run.

Very interesting run if nothing else!

All you're looking at on that plot is the BAM, a non-dynamic trajectory model. It won't be aware of how the atmosphere might be changing in the path of the storm. The dynamic models will be a better guide as to where this storm will go.