ATL : INVEST 93L

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hey Ed the models say this will get west of 90w.This looks like a WGOM system.Its your turn to get a system instead of Florida.This is only true if it stays together.

Maybe, but the Canadian, the first global to pick up on this, has liked the Florida Panhandle/Alabama area for two runs in a row.


I'm not on an East or West of 90ºW horse yet, and the odds on "Bastardi's Storm", 25:1 yesterday, are unofficially down to 9:1.

Waiting for the new JB video, the NAM runs yesterday had given him renewed optimism, it seems, that his 2 month forecast for Gulf trouble late June might actually verify.


Staring at my customized super-zoom visible floater I made for myself, new storms firing near where NHC center (see WxMan 57's red "x") is, but I see nothing indicative of a surface or near surface closed low.

[Kennethb]

I am not so sure how a July front might affect such a system vs a late August - September front, provided that an official front makes it to the Gulf Coast. Should be a fun weekend.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is the wrong wind direction if there was much, if any, of a closed low...

Code: Select all

Current Weather Conditions:
Puerto Lempira, Honduras 
(MHPL) 15-13N 083-48W 13M 

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Conditions at  Jun 26, 2009 - 11:00 AM EDTJun 26, 2009 - 10:00 AM CDTJun 26, 2009 - 09:00 AM MDTJun 26, 2009 - 08:00 AM PDTJun 26, 2009 - 07:00 AM ADTJun 26, 2009 - 06:00 AM HDT
2009.06.26 1500 UTC 
Wind  from the S (180 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  partly cloudy 
Weather  Towering cumulus clouds observed 
Temperature  84 F (29 C) 
Dew Point  75 F (24 C) 
Relative Humidity  74% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa) 
ob  MHPL 261500Z 18003KT 9999 SCT030TCU 29/24 Q1012 TCU TD HZ 

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[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS tracks towards the west Florida Penninsula coast.But is a weak feature.See loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Floater is over 93L.

[Brent]

My interest is peaked for the first time this season. Definitely bears watching.

[Nimbus]

The convection has been picking up again just off the coast of the Honduras and this definitely looks like it has potential. Earlier this morning it just looked like another tropical wave blob. Those early recon estimates are often pretty good. 23N 90W would put it in a very favorable area for development per WXman57's analysis.

[fci]

Hey Ed the models say this will get west of 90w.This looks like a WGOM system.Its your turn to get a system instead of Florida.This is only true if it stays together.

Maybe, but the Canadian, the first global to pick up on this, has liked the Florida Panhandle/Alabama area for two runs in a row.


I'm not on an East or West of 90ºW horse yet, and the odds on "Bastardi's Storm", 25:1 yesterday, are unofficially down to 9:1.

Waiting for the new JB video, the NAM runs yesterday had given him renewed optimism, it seems, that his 2 month forecast for Gulf trouble late June might actually verify.

Staring at my customized super-zoom visible floater I made for myself, new storms firing near where NHC center (see WxMan 57's red "x") is, but I see nothing indicative of a surface or near surface closed low.

I apologize for going slightly off subject but I have a request, Ed.

Since we are just starting the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, can we get a moratorium on the "JB nailed it", "JB is great", "JB this" and "JB that"?
I know I am interested in his prognotications as I am of ANY Pro Mets' opinion (and that of several of our S2K well-informed amatuers); but the "scorecard" and "congratulations to JB" that goes on for the entire season REALLY wears thin on me (and maybe of others too).
I am in NO WAY being critical of Mr. Bastardi but only of the "hero worship" reserved for JB and ONLY JB.

I am officially off of my soapbox and I apologize to those who are bored by the "off-topicness" of this and especially to Mods who do not need to warn me as I will not repeat my plea over and over (promise!)

fci

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS tracks towards the west Florida Penninsula coast.But is a weak feature.See loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

This morning's 00z Canadian run also targeted western Florida.

Edit: Ed just pointed out the same thing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12z GFS tracks towards the west Florida Penninsula coast.But is a weak feature.See loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

With both the Canadian and GFS, despite different intensities, seeing somewhere in Florida, I'd be leaning Florida, if I were a betting man. IF anything even develops.

[Ed Mahmoud]

You know who hasn't nailed anything, yet...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Heat content is high over the gulf.
Like Wxman57 said it could support cat 3.

But I hope that other factors keep it much weaker than
cat 3.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

Hopefully this becomes no more than a messy
minimal tropical storm that brings beneficial rains
to drought stricken Texas- but without causing sudden
flooding like allison of course...



Just enough
rain to ease the drought there.

At worst I expect cat 1, but not higher. Still kinda sheary.

[Comanche]

I'll put Lindner up against JB any day. Not only better skill, but no militant attitude to deal with either.

[gboudx]

I'll put Lindner up against JB any day. Not only better skill, but no militant attitude to deal with either.

Same. Jeff has been $$$$ ever since I've been getting his emails. Though I didn't get the one that KatDaddy posted.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll put Lindner up against JB any day. Not only better skill, but no militant attitude to deal with either.

I am close to 100% agreement with JB on AGW, but he now does rants on that almost exclusively, and doesn't post written threads in the detail he used to, on his mid range forecast ideas.

Back on topic

Still looks like a disorganized blob to me.

[Derek Ortt]

new CMC shows NOTHING

likely nothing to see it appears. Afternoon satellite imagery also trends toward that direction

[Derek Ortt]

12Z CMC has nothing at all

[Dean4Storms]

Persistence is key, I'm not sold on anything here yet myself!

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z CMC has nothing at all

A tiny little thing at 850 mb, very, very weak, that sort of heads for Florida.


If the new Canadian doesn't like it, the odds on he who shall not be named's April prediction of a late June storm is back to 30:1, unofficially.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I see lower convergence, upper divergence, warm enough SST's, Some (but not that much) vorticity, It's got coriolis. Shear is a bit high, but if she moves NWerly she'll reduce current shear into a reducing shear environment. Convection is quite healthy but I don't see it continuing just yet. Yesterday had her with a ton of impressive convection that sort of died out and collapsed. Now I see it starting again (presumably due to heating). It's there, just not yet. Bears watching. Could go either way. I'm uncomfortable with this system and my planned move the end of next week.....