EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)

[KWT]

Its certainly gaining nice looking banding right now, I think its well on its way to becoming a TS myself.

[senorpepr]

I'll set up the wx chart floaters on 02E as soon as I get home (roughly around 08Z)

[cycloneye]

I'll set up the wx chart floaters on 02E as soon as I get home (roughly around 08Z)

By that time,it may well be Tropical Storm Andres (02E).

[cycloneye]

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 21 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N
101.7W OR ABOUT 205 MILES S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AT 21/2100 UTC
MOVING W 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE
SHOWN THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
WITH WHAT EARLIER A TROPICAL LOW HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...SO THE
SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM E AND 75 NM W OF
CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM NE
AND 90 NM SW QUADRANTS OF CENTER. A RATHER TIGHT BANDING FEATURE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SW CONSISTS OF SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION...ABOUT 90 NM WIDE...EXTENDING FROM
13N104W TO 15N104W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL
WESTWARD
TRACK.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2205.shtml?

[HURAKAN]

21/2345 UTC 14.6N 101.6W T2.5/2.5 02E -- East Pacific

[BigA]

Spectacular new convective blowup near/to the east of the center. Should be a TS by tonight.

[cycloneye]

It should be TS Andres by the next advisory.

[srainhoutx]

Should see an upgrade at 11:00 PDT IMHO.

[cycloneye]

However,the 00 UTC Best Track leaves it as a TD with 999 mbs.

EP, 02, 2009062200, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1017W, 30, 999, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


But they can upgrade as there is plenty of time before the next advisory is out,by looking at surface observations and microwave pics.

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUN 2009 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 14:46:41 N Lon : 102:02:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.1 2.2 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -78.6C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt02E.html

[Derek Ortt]

Dvorak constraints...

[cycloneye]

What do you mean by constraints?

[Derek Ortt]

its that rule that the T numbers cannot increase too quickly

this is almost certainly a TS based upon sat imagery. Looks more like a 45-50KT TS to be honest

[cycloneye]

Why that big difference in pressure=Best Track has 999 mbs while ADT has 1008 mbs?

[brunota2003]

if you look, it says the numbers can only increase 0.2T per hour.

[Andrew92]

With this storm possibly, if not probably, a threat to land, can't they get recon in there to see how strong this thing is?

I don't think I buy that this will only reach 70 mph. I also think I noticed on the last visible satellite loop I saw that this may be heading just barely right of forecast. I really think watches and/or warnings should be posted next advisory.

And Dvorak only says it can intensify .2 per hour? Have they not heard of rapid intensification or rapid weakening?

-Andrew92

[brunota2003]

Can one of you mets overlay a 00 UTC ship report? Seems there was a ship that reported a 46 knot sustained wind (no gust) with a pressure of 29.54 (~1000.3)

Code: Select all

D      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST   
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP     S 0000  16.00 -100.40  108  44  120  46.0     - 
    1 observations reported for 0000 GMT

SHIP REPORT EDITED so it doesnt overtake S2K


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=ep2

[RL3AO]

With this storm possibly, if not probably, a threat to land, can't they get recon in there to see how strong this thing is?

They don't do recon unless its a serious threat to Mexico/Central America.

[RL3AO]

Can one of you mets overlay a 00 UTC ship report? Seems there was a ship that reported a 46 knot sustained wind (no gust) with a pressure of 29.54 (~1000.3)

Code: Select all

D      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST   
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP     S 0000  16.00 -100.40  108  44  120  46.0     - 
    1 observations reported for 0000 GMT



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=ep2

I'm not a met, but I can plot it for you.

[brunota2003]

Thanks. There was a second report of 28 knots at 13.6N and 99.6W, but that also appears to be outside of the main convection. Forgot to edit out the forward speed of the ship?

I know ship reports can be very unreliable, unfortunately.