NE of Azores Islands : INVEST 92L

[senorpepr]

Interestingly, NHC has estimated the pressure has dropped 6 hPa in the last 12 hours...

AL, 92, 2009060200, , BEST, 0, 408N, 242W, 35, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2009060206, , BEST, 0, 417N, 237W, 40, 999, LO, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009060212, , BEST, 0, 428N, 237W, 45, 995, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[cycloneye]

IMO,I dont think a models thread is needed in this case because this will go soon,so we can post any model information in here.

WHXX01 KWBC 021315
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1315 UTC TUE JUN 2 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090602 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090602 1200 090603 0000 090603 1200 090604 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 42.8N 23.7W 44.3N 23.7W 45.3N 24.2W 45.8N 24.7W
BAMD 42.8N 23.7W 44.5N 24.1W 45.2N 24.9W 44.6N 24.4W
BAMM 42.8N 23.7W 44.4N 24.0W 45.3N 24.7W 45.2N 24.6W
LBAR 42.8N 23.7W 45.1N 23.8W 47.2N 26.0W 48.1N 27.7W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090604 1200 090605 1200 090606 1200 090607 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 45.5N 24.3W 43.3N 19.6W 39.5N 11.7W 37.7N 4.4W
BAMD 42.7N 21.2W 40.1N 8.0W 45.0N 7.4E 50.4N 23.3E
BAMM 44.0N 22.7W 41.0N 13.1W 42.7N .5W 46.7N 9.9E
LBAR 48.9N 27.0W 54.2N 28.7W 46.4N 18.1W 42.9N 5.5W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 42.8N LONCUR = 23.7W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 40.8N LONM12 = 24.2W DIRM12 = 25DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 39.2N LONM24 = 25.5W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[DanieleItalyRm]

12 UTC:

[wxman57]

No question it's a big low pressure system with 35-45 kt winds. But it's over SSTs in the upper 50s now (and dropping). Nothing tropical about it in the least. Let's hope the NHC doesn't waste a name on a cold core winter-type low pressure area.

[senorpepr]

Here's the 02/12Z analysis from the USAF / 21 OWS

UK Met Guidance shows slow progression toward the UK through the next four days.

[DanieleItalyRm]

Let's hope the NHC doesn't waste a name on a cold core winter-type low pressure area.

A cold core winter-type low pressure area?
Many anomaly north Atlantic tropical cyclones some degrees below temperatures when Karl, Charly, Epsilon, Zeta, Vince etc. and derived from a non tropical low, cut off or cold core cyclones..
K.Emanuel " cut off cold core is an ideal embryon in wich a tropical like cyclones can be produced"..
These phenomeno occured in Mediterranean sea,but on warmer whaters.

12 UTC:




and not cold core.. it's warm core:

[CrazyC83]

Remnants of TD1?

[cycloneye]

NRL finnally is fixed with 92L there.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[littlevince]

Let's hope the NHC doesn't waste a name on a cold core winter-type low pressure area.

Hi wxman57. Although I agree that probably is a waste using a name on this and you are my preferred user in this board , you and some others do a great and invaluable work in this board, can I kindly ask you something?

If GFS has a vertical profile of temperature with a warm zone over the center in almost all layers of the atmosphere (till 450hPa) why should this be a cold core ?







Is this a absolute wrong approach to detect a possible warm core ? I know models are not reality, unfortunately CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit is still not available to this system to confirm a warm core.

[HURAKAN]

An hour ago.

[wxman57]

Phase diagram says cold core today. Models hint at nearing warm core tomorrow before becoming symmetric cold core on Thursday. Nothing worth naming.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/11.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

to me it looks alot like ANA now

[DanieleItalyRm]

[JonathanBelles]

If I am reading ATCF right (which I only do half of the time), this thing has 52mph winds.

[senorpepr]

If I am reading ATCF right (which I only do half of the time), this thing has 52mph winds.

Yup, 45KT

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

235
ABNT20 KNHC 021733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES
ISLANDS HAS ACQUIRED SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



The circle keeps going north!!!

[cycloneye]

The 12 UTC surface analysis shows the pressure dropping a bit more now at 994 mbs

[KWT]

This looks like a TC to me and it may already be warm cored...did Vince teach us nothing at all when it comes to these sorts of systems. My bet is its probably 50-55kts if its warm cored.

[hurricanefloyd5]

this is ANA IMHO