ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

104730 1646N 06057W 8428 01588 0149 +129 +088 146049 051 046 033 00
104800 1648N 06057W 8429 01589 0148 +130 +087 151045 047 051 027 00
104830 1650N 06057W 8432 01588 0148 +131 +088 153043 046 049 034 03
104900 1652N 06057W 8411 01609 0148 +131 +089 157042 049 059 050 03

59kt SMFR suspect right?

The SMFR in that line is 49 knots and it's flagged

[HURAKAN]

512
URNT15 KNHC 031107
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 38 20090903
105730 1722N 06052W 8432 01595 0145 +150 +095 136031 031 029 007 03
105800 1724N 06052W 8430 01594 0144 +150 +095 132030 031 030 006 03
105830 1726N 06053W 8429 01600 0142 +152 +095 130029 029 028 007 00
105900 1727N 06054W 8428 01601 0145 +150 +096 131028 028 027 009 03
105930 1728N 06056W 8433 01593 0146 +149 +096 129028 028 027 009 00
110000 1729N 06057W 8428 01598 0149 +145 +096 127029 029 029 009 00
110030 1731N 06059W 8433 01596 0148 +149 +097 121027 028 028 008 00
110100 1732N 06100W 8430 01596 0146 +150 +096 122024 025 028 007 00
110130 1733N 06102W 8429 01599 0145 +151 +096 124025 026 029 007 00
110200 1734N 06104W 8428 01601 0145 +153 +096 122024 025 029 007 00
110230 1735N 06105W 8429 01600 0148 +146 +096 123022 024 030 007 00
110300 1736N 06107W 8428 01602 0145 +150 +096 127020 020 029 007 00
110330 1737N 06108W 8425 01601 0142 +155 +095 121021 022 027 007 03
110400 1738N 06110W 8431 01596 0141 +158 +094 115024 026 017 007 00
110430 1739N 06111W 8429 01599 0143 +155 +094 106026 026 021 007 00
110500 1740N 06113W 8436 01594 0137 +164 +095 106026 027 026 006 03
110530 1741N 06114W 8426 01602 0135 +165 +096 104027 027 028 005 00
110600 1742N 06116W 8427 01597 0134 +165 +098 106025 026 030 004 00
110630 1743N 06118W 8426 01605 0137 +167 +101 106026 026 032 004 00
110700 1745N 06119W 8426 01602 0133 +171 +105 105028 029 033 005 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

684
URNT15 KNHC 031117
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 39 20090903
110730 1746N 06121W 8432 01597 0134 +169 +109 105031 031 033 004 00
110800 1747N 06123W 8430 01598 0137 +164 +113 101031 031 031 004 00
110830 1748N 06125W 8430 01599 0137 +162 +117 100030 030 031 005 00
110900 1749N 06126W 8440 01585 0138 +155 +119 102030 031 029 004 00
110930 1750N 06128W 8421 01607 0141 +152 +119 101029 030 028 004 00
111000 1752N 06130W 8429 01600 0142 +158 +119 099028 029 030 004 00
111030 1753N 06132W 8430 01602 0143 +155 +119 099028 028 028 004 00
111100 1754N 06133W 8428 01601 0145 +153 +120 098027 028 028 003 00
111130 1755N 06135W 8432 01600 0146 +151 +120 101028 029 026 002 00
111200 1756N 06137W 8433 01595 0141 +158 +121 097029 030 027 002 00
111230 1758N 06139W 8433 01595 0146 +147 +122 105031 032 025 003 00
111300 1759N 06140W 8431 01597 0142 +157 +122 107030 031 026 004 00
111330 1800N 06142W 8429 01601 0140 +160 +120 106032 033 022 005 00
111400 1801N 06144W 8432 01598 0140 +163 +120 094028 030 021 003 00
111430 1802N 06146W 8429 01601 0137 +165 +120 093029 030 017 004 00
111500 1803N 06147W 8430 01595 0137 +162 +122 101030 031 021 004 00
111530 1805N 06149W 8427 01605 0140 +161 +124 106031 032 019 004 00
111600 1806N 06151W 8433 01602 0142 +165 +126 107028 031 019 004 03
111630 1805N 06153W 8428 01601 0138 +164 +127 103024 025 015 004 03
111700 1804N 06154W 8430 01600 0138 +161 +128 103026 027 018 003 00
$$
;

[knotimpaired]

Good morning all. Are you saying Erika may be gaining some of the strength she lost?

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Good morning all. Are you saying Erika may be gaining some of the strength she lost?

We'll know in about 20 to 30 minutes!

[HUC]

Good morning to all.I shut down my computer last night,because of the severe TStorms we had at Basse-Terre:400 strikes,92mm of rain,guists from the south around 50kh....Yes,i felt ERIKA.Be on your gyrd,eveone;small storm,but storm!!!

[HURAKAN]

926
URNT15 KNHC 031127
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 40 20090903
111730 1802N 06155W 8434 01592 0135 +160 +128 105024 027 012 004 00
111800 1802N 06155W 8434 01592 0133 +162 +128 104026 027 011 004 00
111830 1800N 06158W 8428 01597 0129 +168 +127 097028 029 011 003 00
111900 1759N 06159W 8434 01592 0132 +165 +127 104027 027 013 004 00
111930 1757N 06201W 8426 01599 0127 +170 +127 097027 027 011 004 00
112000 1756N 06202W 8433 01589 0127 +168 +127 100027 027 006 004 00
112030 1755N 06203W 8420 01604 0131 +164 +127 100027 028 011 004 00
112100 1754N 06205W 8429 01600 0131 +172 +128 105020 021 016 004 00
112130 1752N 06206W 8429 01597 0128 +175 +128 102018 020 021 003 00
112200 1751N 06208W 8431 01597 0131 +170 +130 098022 024 020 003 00
112230 1750N 06209W 8422 01608 0133 +166 +132 100024 025 018 004 00
112300 1748N 06211W 8430 01597 0129 +171 +132 096024 024 020 003 00
112330 1747N 06212W 8426 01600 0125 +177 +133 095024 024 019 004 00
112400 1745N 06213W 8433 01595 0124 +180 +133 094023 025 014 004 00
112430 1744N 06215W 8428 01599 0125 +176 +134 099019 022 012 004 00
112500 1743N 06216W 8428 01599 0125 +174 +135 099021 024 013 004 00
112530 1741N 06218W 8425 01601 0122 +178 +136 095022 023 011 003 00
112600 1740N 06219W 8432 01593 0126 +173 +136 103023 025 012 003 00
112630 1739N 06221W 8429 01598 0127 +171 +136 107025 026 010 004 00
112700 1737N 06222W 8431 01597 0126 +176 +136 110023 024 004 004 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

The GFDL & HWRF have been all over the place w/ Erika. They both continue building Erika into a strong system, why can't they see the shear ahead of them? Maybe they will be right, but I'm going w/ the NHC's confidence Erika will dissipate, I don't think they would call for it if they were not confident.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of energy. Erika is tapping on an energy source untapped before this season

[wjs3]

104730 1646N 06057W 8428 01588 0149 +129 +088 146049 051 046 033 00
104800 1648N 06057W 8429 01589 0148 +130 +087 151045 047 051 027 00
104830 1650N 06057W 8432 01588 0148 +131 +088 153043 046 049 034 03
104900 1652N 06057W 8411 01609 0148 +131 +089 157042 049 059 050 03

59kt SMFR suspect right?

The SMFR in that line is 49 knots and it's flagged

No--the SFMR is 59 Kts in that ob. It is pretty suspect, beyond the 03 flag. Surface wind is higher than FL--SFMR hates high rain rates and that 50 in the next field is a whopper.

See page G-8 and G-9 of this chapter of the NHOP:

http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/09/pdf/17-app_g-09.pdf

[HURAKAN]

203
URNT15 KNHC 031137
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 41 20090903
112730 1736N 06223W 8430 01594 0123 +181 +136 110022 024 010 003 00
112800 1734N 06225W 8429 01597 0121 +183 +135 109022 023 007 004 00
112830 1733N 06226W 8433 01595 0125 +180 +136 103025 026 999 999 03
112900 1733N 06228W 8428 01599 0123 +180 +137 096023 025 003 005 00
112930 1732N 06230W 8426 01602 0123 +180 +137 093020 022 001 005 00
113000 1732N 06232W 8430 01596 0123 +180 +138 096020 020 001 005 03
113030 1731N 06234W 8430 01595 0125 +179 +139 103021 022 000 005 03
113100 1731N 06236W 8427 01602 0127 +175 +139 110024 025 001 004 03
113130 1730N 06238W 8430 01598 0128 +172 +139 109025 026 999 999 03
113200 1730N 06240W 8429 01597 0127 +174 +138 107027 028 999 999 03
113230 1729N 06243W 8432 01595 0128 +171 +138 104027 028 999 999 03
113300 1729N 06245W 8429 01594 0122 +179 +137 093026 027 999 999 03
113330 1728N 06247W 8430 01595 0120 +180 +137 086027 027 999 999 03
113400 1728N 06249W 8429 01595 0119 +182 +137 079026 027 999 999 03
113430 1727N 06251W 8429 01597 0114 +191 +137 072024 026 999 999 03
113500 1727N 06253W 8428 01600 0115 +191 +138 073024 026 999 999 03
113530 1726N 06255W 8433 01597 0119 +189 +140 076023 026 999 999 03
113600 1725N 06256W 8443 01580 0120 +185 +141 075021 023 999 999 03
113630 1723N 06256W 8444 01578 0115 +187 +142 076020 021 999 999 03
113700 1721N 06256W 8430 01593 0110 +190 +142 084018 019 999 999 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

992
WTNT31 KNHC 031135
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...DISORGANIZED ERIKA CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF ST. KITTS...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...
GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1
WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. KITTS AND ABOUT
220 MILES...350 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND APPROACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.9N 63.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

209
URNT15 KNHC 031147
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 42 20090903
113730 1720N 06256W 8421 01602 0110 +190 +141 076020 021 999 999 03
113800 1718N 06256W 8439 01582 0106 +197 +141 087019 019 999 999 03
113830 1716N 06256W 8425 01596 0107 +195 +141 084020 021 999 999 03
113900 1715N 06256W 8428 01593 0107 +195 +141 084021 021 999 999 03
113930 1713N 06256W 8431 01589 0105 +195 +141 081021 021 999 999 03
114000 1711N 06256W 8433 01589 0107 +195 +141 080021 022 000 005 03
114030 1710N 06256W 8430 01591 0109 +190 +142 084019 020 000 004 03
114100 1708N 06256W 8429 01590 0108 +191 +142 080019 019 999 999 03
114130 1706N 06256W 8429 01592 0106 +196 +141 080019 019 999 999 03
114200 1705N 06256W 8431 01590 0108 +193 +141 080015 017 999 999 03
114230 1703N 06257W 8425 01596 0109 +191 +141 082013 014 999 999 03
114300 1701N 06257W 8430 01590 0109 +191 +141 086012 013 999 999 03
114330 1700N 06257W 8429 01593 0110 +190 +141 089010 012 000 005 03
114400 1658N 06257W 8429 01592 0111 +187 +142 087005 006 000 005 03
114430 1656N 06258W 8430 01590 0113 +183 +142 085007 009 000 005 03
114500 1655N 06258W 8428 01594 0116 +180 +142 093009 010 000 006 03
114530 1653N 06257W 8430 01590 0116 +180 +141 083005 005 001 005 03
114600 1651N 06257W 8429 01593 0115 +182 +139 088003 004 001 006 03
114630 1650N 06257W 8430 01591 0112 +187 +137 130002 002 999 999 03
114700 1648N 06257W 8430 01592 0112 +188 +136 139001 002 000 004 03
$$
;

[tailgater]

Mid level circulation forming between Guataloupe and Antigua.Check out the radar loop
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

Things are heating up in my location: constant rain showers, frequents and disorganized gustywinds blowing from ESE even SE, ligtnings over my head, thunder is rumbling! Looks like Erika is always here but... maybe much more healthy!

[knotimpaired]

I do not get it. The Weather Channel says the recon is showing winds in the 20's????