EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[CrazyC83]

It looks like the eye is becoming more circular. It seems to be gaining strength.

The next flight isn't until tomorrow afternoon, so they would need to make judgement calls until then on whether or not to upgrade.

[margiek]

a link to today's MODIS image:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/E ... .100pc.jpg

[Macrocane]

I think that tomorrow when the recon reaches Jimena she will be on a weakening trend, so if it is going to be upgraded it will have to be tonight and based on Dvorak and satellite presentation. But the intensity is only important for us who want to have another cat 5 on history books but regardless of the intensity heavy damage could occur, hopefuly it won't.

[Cyclenall]

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR
MISSION IN JIMENA...AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 149 KT
AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS WERE 132 KT OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ALSO MEASURED 128 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
EYEWALL AND 125 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE EYEWALL. A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 135 KT...AT THE VERY HIGH END OF
CATEGORY 4 STATUS.

What flight reduction method was used for the flight level winds?

One interesting thing about the track is if it were to unexpectedly go to the far left of the track cone and remain over water the whole time, Jimena would pay a visit to southern California in some form. It's at the perfect angle but it would have to be a bit faster beyond three days. I can see a big flooding problem at the end of the forecast period regardless of where it ends up.

The eye has been getting a little better defined within the past few hours.

[srainhoutx]

[Cookie]

mother nature at her jaw dropping fiercest

[KBBOCA]

Wow! Jaw-dropping indeed!

And yet with a Cat4-Cat 5 hurricane about to hit a major resort area this thread is only at 18 pages?!? Although understandable, I always have to laugh when the slightest blob in the Atlantic generates dozens of pages of discussion and the monster storms in the Pacific go unnoticed by most...

Yet these are awesome to watch. I'm praying for all in this storm's path tonight and hope the storm will weaken or stay offshore enough to prevent terrible destruction or loss of life.

[Cookie]

Wow! Jaw-dropping indeed!

Yet these are awesome to watch. I'm praying for all in this storm's path tonight and hope the storm will weaken or stay offshore enough to prevent terrible destruction or loss of life.

I agree 100%

[jinftl]

As of the latest advisory, the windfield continues to be fairly compact, on most of the quadrants (except ne)....hurricane force winds only extend out 15 miles to the sw and 20 miles to the se and nw of the eye.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 90SW 110NW.

[CrazyC83]

Wow! Jaw-dropping indeed!

And yet with a Cat4-Cat 5 hurricane about to hit a major resort area this thread is only at 18 pages?!? Although understandable, I always have to laugh when the slightest blob in the Atlantic generates dozens of pages of discussion and the monster storms in the Pacific go unnoticed by most...

Yet these are awesome to watch. I'm praying for all in this storm's path tonight and hope the storm will weaken or stay offshore enough to prevent terrible destruction or loss of life.

It's always been that way that Atlantic blobs get far more attention than anything the rest of the world throws at us, since Atlantic storms tend to impact most of our members, and few - if any - of us here are in the path of this. Still quite a scary sight to see - hopefully those in the path of Jimena are prepared, as they could be looking at a Category 5 storm!

[Cookie]

same thing happens on a forum I use, hurricane section is tucked away in a small sub section.

all year round its just me and another guy, come the summer everyone piles in.

[srainhoutx]

seem thing happens on a forum I use, hurricanes are tucked away in a small sub section.

all year round its just me and another guy, come the summer everyone piles in.

Isn't that the truth.

[clfenwi]

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR
MISSION IN JIMENA...AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 149 KT
AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS WERE 132 KT OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ALSO MEASURED 128 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
EYEWALL AND 125 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE EYEWALL. A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 135 KT...AT THE VERY HIGH END OF
CATEGORY 4 STATUS.

What flight reduction method was used for the flight level winds?

One interesting thing about the track is if it were to unexpectedly go to the far left of the track cone and remain over water the whole time, Jimena would pay a visit to southern California in some form. It's at the perfect angle but it would have to be a bit faster beyond three days. I can see a big flooding problem at the end of the forecast period regardless of where it ends up.

The eye has been getting a little better defined within the past few hours.

If you want to think of the reduction factor in terms of (advisory winds / flight level winds) then you get 135/149=90.6%.

At one point (00Z Saturday, I think), the GFS was forecasting what I called the suicide run parallel to the California coast. It has since, of course, moved east and is part of the tight mid-term cluster, (which the CMC, apparently trying to make a forecast worse than this one is not a part of.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 312336
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

...DANGEROUS JIMENA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS...AND NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT
285 MILES...460 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE STATUS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.8N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[CrazyC83]

Still a Cat 4; more data is needed (i.e. Dvorak upgrades on SSD) to upgrade to Cat 5.

[clfenwi]

WHXX04 KWBC 312320
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE JIMENA 13E
INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 31
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 18.1 108.9 305./ 8.0
6 18.6 109.5 311./ 7.3
12 19.3 110.0 324./ 8.4
18 20.1 110.2 341./ 8.2
24 21.1 110.5 344./10.8
30 22.4 110.9 344./13.5
36 23.6 111.4 338./12.8
42 25.0 112.0 336./14.6
48 26.1 112.5 337./12.1
54 27.3 112.7 351./12.5
60 28.0 113.1 329./ 7.5
66 28.5 113.2 351./ 5.4
72 28.9 113.1 10./ 3.5
78 29.3 113.0 13./ 4.4
84 29.5 113.0 8./ 2.1
90 29.8 112.9 28./ 2.5
96 30.3 112.9 356./ 5.3
102 31.0 112.8 11./ 7.5
108 32.2 112.4 17./12.2
114 33.4 111.9 23./12.6
120 35.5 110.5 34./24.0
126 37.8 108.8 36./26.3

Full loop
There's going to be some seriously ugly rainfall totals if that verifies.
HWRF shows a similar slowdown in that time-frame, albeit a bit further up the eastern Gulf of California coast

[O Town]

Nice little movie of Jimena.

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeswest/pacific2/movie/latest.mov

[clfenwi]

01/0000 UTC 18.9N 109.2W T6.0/6.0 JIMENA -- East Pacific

No change in SAB's rating.

[HURAKAN]

Wow! Jaw-dropping indeed!

And yet with a Cat4-Cat 5 hurricane about to hit a major resort area this thread is only at 18 pages?!? Although understandable, I always have to laugh when the slightest blob in the Atlantic generates dozens of pages of discussion and the monster storms in the Pacific go unnoticed by most...

Yet these are awesome to watch. I'm praying for all in this storm's path tonight and hope the storm will weaken or stay offshore enough to prevent terrible destruction or loss of life.

Count how many posts in this thread are made by people living in Baja California and count how many posts are made in 94L's thread by people living in the eastern Caribbean and you will see why one has more posts than the other.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like this has made a definitive turn to the NNW