ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Evil Jeremy]

In that case, what kind of implications do you think that would have on the track of Erika? I know the answer is "alot", but what will be the biggest changes lol?

[Sanibel]

If it tracks into the Caribbean and stays down we have to allow the word (GOM) to be mentioned.

[deltadog03]

Your right, could be a lot, but as Derek said earlier this evening...Erika could try to strengthen a little bit atleast. The mid shear is only around 10kts and that really is not that bad considering this has been fighting nearly 30-40kts today.

[Evil Jeremy]

Your right, could be a lot, but as Derek said earlier this evening...Erika could try to strengthen a little bit atleast. The mid shear is only around 10kts and that really is not that bad considering this has been fighting nearly 30-40kts today.

How would a reformation to the north effect the future path of Erika? Would it still smash through mountainous terrains or something else?

[deltadog03]

I think it could just skirt the islands on the north side... **again, thats if it re-devlops up there**

[caribsue]

Winds still gusting pretty good here in Barbados SSE more so than a couple hours ago.... seems like she doesn't wanna go away.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks to be a little stronger on the 00z GFS run

[vbhoutex]

How often do TC's undergo Mitosis? (for the lack of a better word)

That is exactly what it looks like. LOL!!! I don't think I know of any TC ever doing that though.

[deltadog03]

A little better upper air pattern depicted by GFS tonight so far. Actually has a nice depiction of Erika on there. But, here is the 200mb chart, nice little high sitting on top of it. atleast 1 ouflow jet possibly.

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS off the SE FL coast at 138 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

138h

[caribsue]

How often do TC's undergo Mitosis? (for the lack of a better word)

That is exactly what it looks like. LOL!!! I don't think I know of any TC ever doing that though.

Dont think that this counts cause it was a wave that split... interesting reading though

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Nate_(2005)

[deltadog03]

Well, I think we have a new and improved LLC. Run the loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html
Speed that up a bit, (helps) and this is what I see...

[Bocadude85]

Well, I think we have a new and improved LLC. Run the loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html
Speed that up a bit, (helps) and this is what I see...

Very interesting delta.. I was wondering if a new llc would develop up there.

[Ivanhater]

It would make sense with the GFS

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree; a relocation of the center more northward would probably be the only chance Erika has currently. Also it would probably help it by not having the storm impact any islands except perhaps Puerto Rico. However in a season like this I could see the storm getting decoupled again in the Atlantic and fall apart...but either way Erika is trying to make baby steps to survive the shear...like most storms will do. A tenacious system will find a way. We should know that by now.

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS has been sniffing out the Florida Straits forecast for two days and i'm thinking if this thing can reform the center and miss DR it may just make that forecast because I believe the Westward movement is very much enforced by the storm meandering.

[Bocadude85]

It would make sense with the GFS

Yes it would and would explain why the GFS is a little stronger this run.

[AtlanticWind]

I am a little perplexed by the intensity forecsat by the NHC, ships takes the up to 60 mph, HWRF goes crazy , nogaps seems to have a pretty strong system , gfdl has it at 1002 mb before hitting the D.R.. it seems the nhc forcast should at least mantain mid tropical storm strengh until they are sure the circulation is gone.

[Evil Jeremy]

Very interesting Delta, and it is looking like the reformation is the case. Nice call. If this reformation pans out, it would save Erika from the sheary grave ahead, and possibly mountainous terrain ahead.