ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)
12z ECMWF not much different from 00z,but maybe a tad left at 72 hours.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/
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WOCN31 CWHX 201800 CCA
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT
Correction to initial position and pressure.
...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 23.2 N
And longitude 62.6 W... About 310 nautical miles or 575 km
North of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 105
Knots... 194 km/h... And central pressure at 951 MB. Bill is moving
Northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
The latest track of hurricane Bill has the storm moving slightly
southeast of the previous position over Newfoundland. However
Given the fact track errors are somewhat large beyond day three
One should not focus on the exact path.
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 3.00 PM 23.2N 62.6W 951 105 194
Aug 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
Aug 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
Aug 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 transitioning
Aug 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.
Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early Friday. By Saturday approaching swell heights
near 2 m will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along
some beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.
B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.
Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed later in the forecast period.
Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.
C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.
D. Marine weather
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
End March/bowyer
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT
Correction to initial position and pressure.
...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 23.2 N
And longitude 62.6 W... About 310 nautical miles or 575 km
North of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 105
Knots... 194 km/h... And central pressure at 951 MB. Bill is moving
Northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
The latest track of hurricane Bill has the storm moving slightly
southeast of the previous position over Newfoundland. However
Given the fact track errors are somewhat large beyond day three
One should not focus on the exact path.
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 3.00 PM 23.2N 62.6W 951 105 194
Aug 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
Aug 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
Aug 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 transitioning
Aug 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.
Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early Friday. By Saturday approaching swell heights
near 2 m will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along
some beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.
B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.
Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed later in the forecast period.
Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.
C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.
D. Marine weather
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
End March/bowyer
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- thetruesms
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Re: Re:
The ULL's aren't determined by the amount of moisture present, but the flow about them. It's kind of hard to pick out in the still image, but if you play the loop, you can clearly see the cyclonic (since we're in the northern hemisphere, counter-clockwise) flow around it. It just happens that this ULL doesn't have much moisture with it, and appears black.Shaun2453 wrote:So ULL 's are represented by the black/ uncoloured areas and storms are pushed/ pulled/ move to try and find them (appreciate that may just be one of many factors)...?
As far as how that affects storm motion - absent any other forcing, low pressure systems (like Bill) will tend to move to where the pressure is falling. As the ULL moves, it causes pressures to fall, which could draw Bill towards those falling pressures. Of course, this explanation is simplified almost to the point of being wrong - there are many other factors at play that influence storm track, otherwise hurricanes would just follow these things around all over the Atlantic. But, it can be a factor that could potentially nudge Bill's track somewhat.
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Re: Re:
thetruesms wrote:The ULL's aren't determined by the amount of moisture present, but the flow about them. It's kind of hard to pick out in the still image, but if you play the loop, you can clearly see the cyclonic (since we're in the northern hemisphere, counter-clockwise) flow around it. It just happens that this ULL doesn't have much moisture with it, and appears black.Shaun2453 wrote:So ULL 's are represented by the black/ uncoloured areas and storms are pushed/ pulled/ move to try and find them (appreciate that may just be one of many factors)...?
As far as how that affects storm motion - absent any other forcing, low pressure systems (like Bill) will tend to move to where the pressure is falling. As the ULL moves, it causes pressures to fall, which could draw Bill towards those falling pressures. Of course, this explanation is simplified almost to the point of being wrong - there are many other factors at play that influence storm track, otherwise hurricanes would just follow these things around all over the Atlantic. But, it can be a factor that could potentially nudge Bill's track somewhat.
appreciate the dumbed down version best - it suits my simple (lol) mind. At the same level would the 'trough' that is being spoken about be the large band of moisture (front? depression?) over the E USA now?
Also understand that there are many other - and probably (far) more likely - things that may/will influence this storm but a guys gotta start somewhere!
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- Cainer
- Tropical Storm
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- Joined: Mon May 05, 2008 3:26 pm
- Location: Yarmouth, Nova Scotia
Our local radio station has been putting out disclaimers about Bill, advising the public to tie up loose objects, board up loose windows and prepare for a few days without power. As far as I can tell, the town is taking the threat from Bill pretty seriously, so hopefully no one will be caught unawares when Bill hits.
On a lighter note, I was looking at the website for the radio station, and their article on Bill is a little off - they have a picture of Hurricane Bill from 1997
. Here's the link if you guys wanted to check it out for yourselves: http://www.cjls.com/news.php?ID=621
As for me, our house is next to the beach, but thankfully there's a big hill and a marsh ready to stop any storm surge from reaching our house. On the other hand, our house is basically made of big windows, and falling trees are always a hazard as it is nestled in the forest. But as long as they don't fall on the house, the trees should help protect us from the strongest winds. We have our generator set up and ready for action if (or when
) its needed. I'll try my best to keep you guys updated throughout the weekend.
On a lighter note, I was looking at the website for the radio station, and their article on Bill is a little off - they have a picture of Hurricane Bill from 1997

As for me, our house is next to the beach, but thankfully there's a big hill and a marsh ready to stop any storm surge from reaching our house. On the other hand, our house is basically made of big windows, and falling trees are always a hazard as it is nestled in the forest. But as long as they don't fall on the house, the trees should help protect us from the strongest winds. We have our generator set up and ready for action if (or when

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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
looks like a bit more TRUE NW motion last few images (maybe even 320 ish) ....IMO lets see if this wiggles back WNW next
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- Category 5
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
Cainer, good luck way up there, you folks stay safe. Will be tuned into the board to hear first hand accounts from you if you are able.
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Re: ATL : BILL (03L) Recon Thread
URNT12 KNHC 201826
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 20/17:51:00Z
B. 23 deg 14 min N
062 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2652 m
D. 55 kt
E. 305 deg 76 nm
F. 009 deg 102 kt
G. 281 deg 11 nm
H. 948 mb
I. 11 C / 3078 m
J. 17 C / 3074 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0403A BILL OB 08
MAX FL WIND 134 KT NE QUAD 16:14:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 117 KT SE QUAD 17:57:50Z
;
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 20/17:51:00Z
B. 23 deg 14 min N
062 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2652 m
D. 55 kt
E. 305 deg 76 nm
F. 009 deg 102 kt
G. 281 deg 11 nm
H. 948 mb
I. 11 C / 3078 m
J. 17 C / 3074 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0403A BILL OB 08
MAX FL WIND 134 KT NE QUAD 16:14:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 117 KT SE QUAD 17:57:50Z
;
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:can we please stop frame watching
fix as of 1445: 22.78N 61.72W
fix as of 1915: 23.59N 62.78W
still moving at 305-310
Derek is spot on!
Nice tool to use for everyone to calculate distance and direction:
http://www.fcc.gov/mb/audio/bickel/distance.html
Distance between
N Latitude 22 47 0.00, W Longitude 61 43 0.00 (Point 1)
and N Latitude 23 36 0.00, W Longitude 62 47 0.00 (Point 2)
141.868 kilometers; 88.153 miles
Azimuth from point 1 to point 2 = 310.00°
Let's use vortex fixes (over 12 hours ignoring the fixes in between to get a better average)
A. 20/05:53:00Z
B. 21 deg 05 min N
059 deg 37 min W
A. 20/17:51:00Z
B. 23 deg 14 min N
062 deg 36 min W
Distance between
N Latitude 21 5 0.00, W Longitude 59 37 0.00 (Point 1)
and N Latitude 23 14 0.00, W Longitude 62 36 0.00 (Point 2)
389.211 kilometers; 241.844 miles
Azimuth from point 1 to point 2 = 308.44
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Advisories)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009
...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD...
SPREADING HIGH SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 595 MILES...
960 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1080 MILES...1735 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE 12 TO 24 HOURS...BILL STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON FRIDAY.
BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND
THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.8N 63.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2009
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT.......130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT.......225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..440NE 320SE 350SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 62.6W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.6N 65.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 120SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 49.0N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 53.5N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 63.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009
BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN SENDING VERY
VALUABLE DATA FROM HURRICANE BILL. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS
DOWN TO 948 MB AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 135 KNOTS. THE
SFMR REPORTED EARLIER A PEAK WIND OF 101 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND THE EYE IS NOW BETTER
DEFINED. IN FACT...GOES SATELLITE SUPER-RAPID SCAN SHOWS THE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL AND SEVERAL MESOVORTICES INSIDE THE
EYE...TYPICAL OF STRONG HURRICANES. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND
THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 110 KNOTS. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS ABOUT
TO ENCOUNTER THE WARMEST WATERS ALONG ITS PATH SO FAR.
FURTHERMORE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL EMBEDDED IN A WELL DEFINED
200 MB ANTICYCLONE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR RESTRENGTHENING AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STATUS AGAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BY 96 HOURS IT SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL.
THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN VERY
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTHERLY AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...INCREASING
CONSIDERABLY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SATURDAY MORNING AND BY SUNDAY...THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S.
COAST...AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE NOAA AND THE 53RD AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
AROUND HURRICANE BILL TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE 0000
UTC MODEL RUN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 23.8N 63.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 25.6N 65.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 28.3N 67.1W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 31.0N 68.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 42.5N 64.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 49.0N 49.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 25/1800Z 53.5N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009
...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD...
SPREADING HIGH SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 595 MILES...
960 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1080 MILES...1735 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE 12 TO 24 HOURS...BILL STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON FRIDAY.
BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND
THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.8N 63.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2009
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT.......130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT.......225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..440NE 320SE 350SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 62.6W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.6N 65.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 120SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 49.0N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 53.5N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 63.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009
BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN SENDING VERY
VALUABLE DATA FROM HURRICANE BILL. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS
DOWN TO 948 MB AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 135 KNOTS. THE
SFMR REPORTED EARLIER A PEAK WIND OF 101 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND THE EYE IS NOW BETTER
DEFINED. IN FACT...GOES SATELLITE SUPER-RAPID SCAN SHOWS THE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL AND SEVERAL MESOVORTICES INSIDE THE
EYE...TYPICAL OF STRONG HURRICANES. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND
THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 110 KNOTS. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS ABOUT
TO ENCOUNTER THE WARMEST WATERS ALONG ITS PATH SO FAR.
FURTHERMORE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL EMBEDDED IN A WELL DEFINED
200 MB ANTICYCLONE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR RESTRENGTHENING AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STATUS AGAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BY 96 HOURS IT SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL.
THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN VERY
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTHERLY AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...INCREASING
CONSIDERABLY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SATURDAY MORNING AND BY SUNDAY...THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S.
COAST...AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE NOAA AND THE 53RD AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
AROUND HURRICANE BILL TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE 0000
UTC MODEL RUN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 23.8N 63.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 25.6N 65.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 28.3N 67.1W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 31.0N 68.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 42.5N 64.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 49.0N 49.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 25/1800Z 53.5N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
Drezee run those from 1715 to 2015 and i bet a 3hr fix will get you 318-322
now what it does from 2015 to 2315 we will wait and see
been looking at ramdis loop and it seems like a bit of a change last 3 hours...but i don't have the exact center co-ordinates
now what it does from 2015 to 2315 we will wait and see
been looking at ramdis loop and it seems like a bit of a change last 3 hours...but i don't have the exact center co-ordinates
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- storms NC
- Tropical Storm
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:can we please stop frame watching
fix as of 1445: 22.78N 61.72W
fix as of 1915: 23.59N 62.78W
still moving at 305-310
Man you take the fun out of it. Love to see the little wibbles wobble but they don't fall down

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Heard a rumour that the trough of low pressure that is supposed to move Bill out to sea has transformed itself with a "negative tilt". I have no idea of the significance or this or even what it means in laymans terms though I'll be googling it to find out but the same personm told me that its effect may be to pull Bill closer to the shore...
Anyone else heard/ seen or have an opinion on this?
Anyone else heard/ seen or have an opinion on this?
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