ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Ptarmigan]

right now, I think there may be TS winds for the USA (CC and MA). The best bet for the cane is Nova Scotia

That said, there is more forecats uncertainty than usual and is why I hate the static cone. Hopefully in about 2 years, I have a much better product ready

Let's hope so.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Bill is quite large. Looks like hurricanes that come from large tropical waves tend to be larger. Ike was above average size hurricane at its peak. When it entered the Gulf it was a monster due to its prolonged interaction with Cuba.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200345
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 13 20090820
033600 2157N 06005W 6971 03136 0041 +084 +084 070071 072 044 007 00
033630 2156N 06004W 6962 03143 0037 +085 +081 069071 072 047 007 00
033700 2155N 06003W 6969 03126 0029 +089 +082 067069 071 048 006 00
033730 2154N 06002W 6968 03128 0022 +093 +082 066063 065 049 007 00
033800 2153N 06001W 6965 03132 0024 +090 +090 065057 058 049 009 00
033830 2151N 05959W 6970 03121 0027 +086 +086 064062 065 048 011 00
033900 2150N 05958W 6968 03126 0026 +084 +084 065068 069 048 010 00
033930 2149N 05957W 6973 03117 0024 +082 +082 068076 080 050 010 01
034000 2148N 05956W 6967 03116 0020 +083 +083 069083 083 049 008 01
034030 2147N 05955W 6971 03110 0013 +081 +081 073080 081 050 009 01
034100 2146N 05954W 6964 03116 9990 +072 +999 073079 082 055 010 01
034130 2145N 05953W 6967 03104 9990 +080 +999 079085 087 055 008 01
034200 2144N 05952W 6968 03108 9996 +090 +090 078084 085 055 008 03
034230 2143N 05951W 6967 03102 9995 +086 +086 077087 089 056 008 00
034300 2142N 05950W 6970 03091 9989 +089 +089 076092 094 058 008 00
034330 2141N 05949W 6969 03091 9990 +077 +999 074091 093 057 009 01
034400 2140N 05948W 6960 03095 9990 +070 +999 075086 087 059 010 01
034430 2139N 05947W 6971 03079 9990 +073 +999 081087 090 058 011 01
034500 2138N 05946W 6965 03082 9990 +074 +999 082088 090 059 010 01
034530 2138N 05946W 6967 03074 9990 +077 +999 082087 090 061 009 01
$$
;

[cpdaman]

maybe starting more NW/NNW move

[HURAKAN]

[JTD]

00z GFS coming in right now. Looks slightly further west than 12Z was. Not sure if I'm just reading too much into it or not but this run certainly bears careful watching. The ridge is slightly stronger and the trough slightly deeper. More likely than not, it'll end up with the same solution as 12z and 18z but let's see...

[Cainer]

If Bill does hit Nova Scotia aren't the buildings there constructed to stand up to this kind of storm pretty well or maybe I'm thinking of Bermuda?

From what I can tell (although I'm not an expert on these things by any means) the buildings around Halifax are built relatively well to withstand hurricanes; when Juan slammed through downtown Hali there wasn't really much structural damage, just unavoidable things like smashed windows and the occasional blown down roof. On the other hand, the smaller towns potentially in Bill's path aren't so well prepared, as most of them were not constructed with a hurricane strike in mind. Here in Yarmouth, for example, we had a windstorm just before Christmas last year that probably had near-hurricane force winds, and there was quite a bit of damage around town; a gas station's overhang had collapsed, trees had smashed into roofs, a few roads were nearly washed out (the power came back on on Christmas Eve, thankfully!). So really, in terms of building integrity, it all depends on where you go. Generally, Halifax is probably better prepared for a hurricane, and the fact that we felt barely any effects from Noel and Kyle, I'm afraid people might be a little complacent around here. Maybe Bill won't be any different from those two storms, but hopefully people are still prepared for the worst.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200355
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 14 20090820
034600 2137N 05945W 6967 03072 9990 +085 +999 084083 084 060 008 01
034630 2136N 05944W 6969 03066 9948 +095 +095 083079 081 060 008 00
034700 2135N 05943W 6967 03065 9946 +091 +091 081077 079 060 006 01
034730 2134N 05942W 6963 03070 9943 +095 +095 081075 075 061 006 00
034800 2132N 05941W 6969 03048 9929 +096 +096 079076 076 063 005 00
034830 2131N 05940W 6969 03045 9915 +102 +102 080078 080 064 004 00
034900 2130N 05939W 6966 03042 9908 +104 +104 077082 083 064 004 00
034930 2129N 05938W 6968 03038 9910 +094 +094 079083 084 063 004 01
035000 2128N 05937W 6972 03026 9902 +100 +100 080080 081 064 004 00
035030 2127N 05937W 6966 03032 9903 +096 +096 080082 083 064 007 00
035100 2126N 05936W 6965 03025 9895 +099 +099 075081 082 064 006 00
035130 2125N 05935W 6966 03022 9882 +104 +104 075079 079 066 006 00
035200 2123N 05934W 6964 03014 9871 +107 +106 074083 083 066 008 00
035230 2122N 05933W 6972 03004 9871 +102 +102 074085 087 065 006 00
035300 2121N 05932W 6964 03004 9858 +105 +105 076089 092 066 008 00
035330 2120N 05931W 6970 02987 9990 +095 +999 077094 095 067 010 01
035400 2119N 05931W 6962 02991 9990 +096 +999 075093 095 069 009 01
035430 2118N 05930W 6967 02971 9831 +105 +105 076091 093 069 006 00
035500 2117N 05929W 6963 02968 9990 +100 +999 077093 094 071 009 01
035530 2115N 05928W 6969 02952 9990 +095 +999 075090 091 075 013 01
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[weatherSnoop]

OT, I know. The board has slowed so I would like to welcome you back, Hurakan.

[lonelymike]

Just had a look at the 00z Dynamic Hurricane Models. Cape Cod it'll be close but Nova Scotia and Newfoundland batten down the hatches The majority of the models keep Bill off of the East Coast but are unanimous in taking Bill over the Canadian Maritimes.

[Derek Ortt]

no real change in 0Z GFS compared with 18Z

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200405
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 15 20090820
035600 2114N 05927W 6974 02934 9990 +089 +999 078100 102 074 016 01
035630 2113N 05927W 6971 02926 9990 +094 +999 081102 103 074 015 01
035700 2112N 05926W 6967 02919 9990 +099 +999 085107 109 074 013 01
035730 2111N 05925W 6959 02917 9990 +107 +999 085102 105 078 012 01
035800 2110N 05924W 6972 02886 9990 +111 +999 086098 100 078 009 01
035830 2109N 05924W 6963 02890 9715 +118 +118 084096 099 079 008 01
035900 2108N 05923W 6969 02871 9697 +120 +120 080090 091 081 006 00
035930 2107N 05922W 6970 02856 9678 +126 +126 076090 092 084 009 00
040000 2106N 05921W 6964 02845 9663 +122 +122 072094 097 082 013 00
040030 2105N 05920W 6963 02824 9636 +127 +127 073098 100 084 025 03
040100 2104N 05920W 6980 02781 9615 +120 +120 072107 115 085 026 05
040130 2103N 05919W 6946 02811 9990 +102 +999 074095 098 092 029 01
040200 2101N 05918W 6988 02733 9990 +119 +999 066073 081 098 016 01
040230 2100N 05917W 6958 02769 9546 +142 +142 069062 064 097 006 03
040300 2058N 05916W 6963 02737 9526 +140 +140 071061 062 079 007 03
040330 2057N 05916W 6969 02714 9503 +150 +129 077053 057 051 003 03
040400 2055N 05915W 6963 02709 9476 +164 +121 083043 047 036 003 03
040430 2053N 05915W 6976 02684 9463 +171 +121 088031 035 028 004 03
040500 2052N 05915W 6970 02690 9463 +166 +117 101019 023 022 001 03
040530 2050N 05915W 6971 02689 9464 +165 +117 112013 014 018 002 03
$$
;

Double maxima developing - ERC seems to be starting. 115 kt FL, 98 kt SFMR in NW quad.

[brunota2003]

1150 pm EDT update from Buoy 41044

Sustained winds of 56.3 knots
Winds Gusting to 71.9 knots
Wave height of 38.7 feet
Pressure of 993 millibars and falling rapidly

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
12:28 am ADT - 64.3 kts

[HURAKAN]

OT, I know. The board has slowed so I would like to welcome you back, Hurakan.

Thanks. Glad to be back.

[brunota2003]

What is interesting to note is that you can clearly see the two separate maxima's on the FL Data, but it doesn't show up at all on the surface winds (for now).

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200415
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 16 20090820
040600 2048N 05915W 6969 02690 9461 +167 +118 121006 009 013 001 03
040630 2047N 05916W 6967 02694 9463 +168 +114 234002 004 006 001 03
040700 2047N 05916W 6967 02694 9467 +166 +126 306011 017 008 001 03
040730 2043N 05917W 6968 02705 9478 +164 +115 282022 024 013 002 03
040800 2042N 05915W 6967 02711 9485 +162 +116 269028 030 023 002 00
040830 2040N 05914W 6969 02719 9503 +154 +122 263037 040 033 003 00
040900 2039N 05912W 6966 02733 9520 +149 +123 259043 045 042 002 03
040930 2038N 05911W 6973 02737 9535 +149 +127 253053 057 052 002 00
041000 2036N 05909W 6971 02756 9550 +154 +131 248065 069 062 002 00
041030 2035N 05908W 6956 02804 9576 +153 +130 243076 083 066 003 00
041100 2034N 05906W 6976 02804 9615 +142 +123 239090 096 068 003 00
041130 2032N 05905W 6971 02835 9635 +152 +104 241094 095 069 001 00
041200 2031N 05903W 6967 02858 9658 +150 +106 237093 093 068 004 00
041230 2030N 05902W 6985 02854 9692 +135 +115 233092 093 067 003 00
041300 2029N 05901W 6967 02891 9716 +128 +118 224092 095 065 004 00
041330 2028N 05859W 6966 02904 9737 +122 +109 223097 099 066 006 00
041400 2027N 05858W 6962 02927 9757 +118 +101 221096 096 064 006 00
041430 2026N 05857W 6969 02930 9767 +121 +100 218096 096 062 005 00
041500 2026N 05857W 6969 02930 9778 +122 +100 216093 094 061 004 00
041530 2023N 05855W 6963 02959 9797 +115 +103 215092 093 059 004 00
$$
;

Pressure 946mb. Broad maxima in SE quad.

Someone else please take over.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm

[btangy]

08/20/09 00Z GFS: 00Z GFS handles the upper level lows to the N of Bill reasonably well in the short term maintaining a narrow trough axis Bill's NW while ejecting the other upper level low toward the NE in agreement with WV imagery. After 36 hours, the southern end of the narrow trough axis closes off and moves faster toward the SW than the 12Z run.

Details of the Midwest trough also begin to change from the 12Z GFS run after 36 hours. GFS continues to trend deeper with more energy rounding the base of the trough and is more in agreement with the NAM. By 72 hours the trough begins to open up again and Bill follows a similar path as forecasted previously, albeit slightly to the right of the 12Z track, targeting Nova Scotia.

Comment on the 12Z and 18Z GEFS members: The ensemble appears to be having problems within the first 0-12 hours with the movement of Bill with the majority of the members being to the left of the recent motion. I believe this initial error is biasing the members from the get go instead of there being structural disagreement with how the trough is being handled. The ensemble envelope is biased heavily toward the W as a result.

[bayoubebe]

Can some pro or mod comment on this(Bill) thread please?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106268

To amateurs,like myself, this can be confusing.
If there's no truth to this, can someone clear it up or maybe delete it?