EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[CrazyC83]

18/1200 UTC 15.6N 107.8W T7.0/7.0 RICK -- East Pacific

SSD never had it at T7.5 even though other agencies did. Given the ERC hints, I would go with 145 kt for the advisory.

[mcallum177]

Can someone please post a link to the high resolution color visible satellite images.

Thanks

[cycloneye]

Can someone please post a link to the high resolution color visible satellite images.

Thanks

I think this is the one you asked.

[cycloneye]

Recon set for Monday Afternoon at 18:00z

NOUS42 KNHC 181430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SUN 18 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE RICK
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0120E RICK
C. 19/1200Z
D. 18.1N 111.4W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
ANOTHER FIX ON HURRICANE RICK ON 20/1800Z NEAR
20.7N 111.2W

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181441
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...RICK STILL A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES
...805 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EARLY
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICK IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...HOWEVER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.8N 108.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181449
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RICK APPARENTLY PEAKED BETWEEN 0200
AND 0400 UTC THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT TIME...THE WARM EYE
TEMPERATURE HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 10 AND 13 DEGREES
CELSIUS WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 1230 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A WEAKENING
OF THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND FRAGMENTS OF A DEVELOPING OUTER
RING. IF THE INNER EYEWALL WEAKENS FURTHER...RICK COULD WEAKEN MORE
QUICKLY THAN INDICATED HERE. GIVEN THAT THE OBJECTIVE ADVANCED
DVORAK INTENSITY 3-HOUR TREND SUGGESTS SLIGHT WEAKENING...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 150 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS THE
CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
SHEAR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM THROUGH DAY 5 AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
HEDGES MORE TOWARD THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/12...AS RICK IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO CENTRAL
MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE RICK TO TURN NORTHWARD. BY
48 HOURS AND BEYOND RICK SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HWRF
AND THE UKMET...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
INDICATE A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AFTER 48
HOURS BUT REMAINS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. INTERESTS IN
THAT AREA AND ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.8N 108.3W 150 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 109.8W 150 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.6N 111.1W 140 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.6N 111.7W 125 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.9N 111.6W 110 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 23.0N 110.0W 85 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
96HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 107.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Landfall at Baja California at 85kts.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.0N 110.0W...INLAND OVER BAJA PENINSULA
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

[HURAKAN]

People should invest money on trying to harness this power, not destroy it

[HURAKAN]

The western side is already being impacted

[Sanibel]

Second strongest EPAC hurricane ever recorded. Hardly anybody watching on Storm2k.


This is the second strong one in EPAC this year. EPAC strong, Atlantic weak.


Strange combination with unseasonable winter-like cold front over Florida.

[HurricaneRobert]

Can someone please post a link to the high resolution color visible satellite images.

Thanks

I think you want the ones here and here?
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/

[RL3AO]

By far the most impressive looking tropical cyclone of the year unless there was something in the southern hemisphere I'm forgetting about.

[mcallum177]

Those are the ones I was looking for, thank you. Yay for new desktop

Their website must have been down yesterday because it kept timing out.

Can someone please post a link to the high resolution color visible satellite images.

Thanks

I think you want the ones here and here?
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/

[Squarethecircle]

Rick might not be as impressive as he was yesterday, but still a very solid hurricane:



Also, convection has increased slightly on the western side, at least for now. Overall the cloud tops are still warming.

[CrazyC83]

Is there a chance that after the ERC is done it could strengthen again to extreme intensities?

[Squarethecircle]

IIRC it's moving out of insanely hot water and the shear is supposed to pick up a wee bit. Given that the NHC forecasts a slow downward trend without entirely accounting for an EWRC it doesn't seem all that likely.

[srainhoutx]

[HurricaneRobert]

Good times are over for Rick.

[jinftl]

Socorro Island lies to the NW of Rick....the island is at 18.4N 110.6W. The island is 51 sq miles and has a population of only 250 people (per wikipedia). The highest point on the island is 3800 ft (the island is a volcano which last erupted in 1993). It would appear to be in line for quite a blow from this storm....the forecast track puts it just to the right of the eyewall.

Rick might not be as impressive as he was yesterday, but still a very solid hurricane:



Also, convection has increased slightly on the western side, at least for now. Overall the cloud tops are still warming.

[srainhoutx]

Good times are over for Rick.

I would not be so sure about that. Remnants are going to be an issue in TX and points NE. Also MX will feel a powerful punch from Rick regardless.

[cycloneye]

Winds are picking up a little in the past two hours at the Island of Socorro.

Code: Select all

 Estacion: Isla Socorro, Colima.
 SIA. I. MET.                 
                               
 AAAA-MM-DD-HH:MM    Dirs      Mgts     Dirmx     Mgtmx     Temp       Hr      Slp      Pcp
 
 2009-10-18-16:00    52.0      14.8      48.0      21.1     28.4     82.0   1007.6      0.0
 2009-10-18-17:00    56.0      19.4      61.0      27.0     23.5     97.0   1008.1      0.8