WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

[oaba09]

It seems like it's starting to recurve

[Crostorm]

[cycloneye]

JMA 12:40 UTC Warning - 110 KTS

TY 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 26 November 2009
<Analyses at 26/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N15°50'(15.8°)
E139°40'(139.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E138°35'(138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°20'(18.3°)
E138°25'(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E138°25'(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 540km(290NM)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Crostorm]

[cycloneye]

JTWC 12:00Z Warning - 145 KTS

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.1N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.0N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.2N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.8N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.1N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 30.1N 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 139.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATLEY 330 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

maybe i just saw a wobble. the eye seemed to move more to the west, or maybe my eyes were not clear to view over the loops because of the double eyewall. even though nida has weakened, it is still one impressive STY, as far as i can remember, STY melor of this season peaked at 145kts, the intensity that STY nida holds right now.

[dexterlabio]

my bad. it is moving northwards still. haha. that's such a grim. but it's amazing that nida maintained STY status for several hours.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 NOV 2009 Time : 160100 UTC
Lat : 16:15:08 N Lon : 139:16:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 919.0mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -0.5C Cloud Region Temp : -74.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

Seems to be getting better organized again. Probably bottomed out at 1200Z at about 130 kt, and is a bit stronger now.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0922 NIDA (0922)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 16.3N 139.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 17.9N 138.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 281800UTC 18.9N 138.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 291800UTC 19.6N 138.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Derek Ortt]

I'd be surprised if this maintained cat 5 status. The Dvorak technique usually breaks down during an EWRC. I would not be surprised if it bottomed out around 105KT

[HURAKAN]

Latest. Very solid

[cycloneye]

JTWC 18:00Z Warning - 135 KTS

WTPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 139.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 139.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.5N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.6N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.5N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.7N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.0N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 27.6N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 31.4N 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 139.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE
20-NM EYE IS BEGINNING TO FILL AND BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL.
ADDITIONALLY, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE
ELONGATED WITH THE GREATEST EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES AND RJTD, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 135 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, ALBEIT IT STILL REMAINS A SUPER TYPHOON.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. FURTHERMORE, WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM'S NORTHERN
PERIPHERY IS NOW GETTING EXPOSED TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. STY NIDA
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE IT CRESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN
ACCELERATING INTO THE MID-LATITUDES AND BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU
120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RECURVATURE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE JGSM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEPICT
A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24 AND THE UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A
QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK AFTER TAU 24 BEFORE FINALLY RECURVING THE
SYSTEM LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND
272100Z.//
NNNN

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive typhoon.

[Infdidoll]

This thing is crazy...saw what looked like an ERC, last night...It was starting to look a little elliptical like it was running into upper level wind shear and weakening, but today, it's back to full strength again. I'm just hoping weather conditions will continue to make the path predictable...because I would NOT want to be in the path of this. Luckily, still doesn't look like a concern for us, right at the moment...but you never know.

[cycloneye]

JMA 00:50 UTC Warning - 105 KTS

TY 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 27 November 2009
<Analyses at 27/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N16°55'(16.9°)
E139°10'(139.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E138°35'(138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E138°35'(138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E138°35'(138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area Wide 600km(325NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC 00:00Z Warning - 130 KTS

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.0N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.0N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.8N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.8N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.6N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.5N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 139.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS
42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Hopefully it turns east before it gets to Iwo To