ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Ptarmigan]

Bill is very impressive. I wonder if it could become a Category 5 hurricane?

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191835
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 29 20090819
182530 1810N 05804W 6968 03114 0008 +090 +089 315040 040 033 003 00
182600 1809N 05805W 6970 03113 0013 +088 +088 318041 041 033 002 00
182630 1808N 05806W 6970 03112 0014 +087 +087 320040 040 032 003 00
182700 1807N 05807W 6968 03118 0009 +092 +089 318041 042 033 003 00
182730 1805N 05809W 6972 03112 0019 +087 +087 320037 039 033 004 00
182800 1804N 05810W 6965 03123 9990 +075 +999 318033 034 035 003 01
182830 1803N 05811W 6971 03118 0022 +082 +082 313035 035 032 004 01
182900 1802N 05812W 6969 03119 0026 +085 +085 314031 032 030 002 00
182930 1801N 05814W 6970 03124 0022 +089 +089 308034 036 028 002 00
183000 1759N 05815W 6968 03123 0021 +090 +087 311038 038 027 003 00
183030 1758N 05816W 6974 03118 0025 +089 +089 314036 037 026 003 00
183100 1757N 05818W 6972 03124 0028 +089 +082 317038 040 023 002 00
183130 1756N 05819W 6941 03163 0029 +087 +076 320044 046 019 002 03
183200 1756N 05820W 6757 03392 0034 +074 +065 318043 046 024 001 00
183230 1756N 05822W 6560 03638 0040 +059 +059 311035 037 026 001 00
183300 1756N 05824W 6342 03918 0038 +046 +044 300029 030 024 003 00
183330 1756N 05825W 6125 04204 0038 +030 +029 298031 031 024 003 00
183400 1756N 05827W 5909 04465 0006 +013 +013 303034 035 024 003 01
183430 1756N 05829W 5705 04751 9990 -002 +999 312035 035 026 002 01
183500 1756N 05831W 5509 05051 0004 -013 -013 309034 034 026 005 01

[Gigsley]

URNT11 KNHC 191838
97779 18294 40180 58208 30500 31031 09098 /3087
43025
RMK AF303 0203A BILL OB 14
SWS = 29 KTS

[littlevince]

[Frank2]

Let's see the EC was the "ONLY" model that showed a curve out to sea way before the other models chimed in. So IMO it did a GREAT job with Bill. It obviously saw something the other models missed.

True, though you'd wonder why, since the GFS showed the pending weakness in the ridge as early as one week ago...

Frank

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191845
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 30 20090819
183530 1756N 05832W 5318 05328 0213 -032 +999 311033 034 027 006 01
183600 1756N 05834W 5155 05582 0233 -038 -038 311034 034 025 004 00
183630 1756N 05836W 5068 05712 0241 -044 -047 312034 034 016 001 00
183700 1756N 05838W 5055 05732 0242 -048 -054 315035 036 017 000 00
183730 1756N 05840W 5064 05722 0243 -049 -053 315036 036 014 000 00
183800 1756N 05842W 5066 05720 0245 -049 -058 312034 035 013 000 00
183830 1757N 05844W 5068 05720 0246 -049 -056 310032 032 013 000 00
183900 1757N 05847W 5070 05716 0247 -045 -062 313032 032 013 000 00
183930 1757N 05849W 5070 05714 0248 -044 -064 317032 032 013 000 00
184000 1757N 05852W 5072 05719 0251 -046 -065 319030 031 016 000 00
184030 1757N 05854W 5073 05712 0252 -042 -066 321029 030 014 000 00
184100 1757N 05857W 5073 05725 0255 -040 -066 316028 028 012 000 00
184130 1757N 05859W 5073 05721 0253 -043 -062 314027 028 018 001 00
184200 1757N 05901W 5069 05724 0252 -042 -067 315026 026 023 002 00
184230 1757N 05904W 5066 05727 0254 -045 -068 317025 025 024 001 00
184300 1757N 05906W 5066 05731 0255 -045 -073 317025 025 024 000 00
184330 1757N 05908W 5069 05729 0255 -044 -077 320025 025 025 000 00
184400 1757N 05911W 5070 05726 0257 -043 -083 325027 028 025 000 00
184430 1757N 05913W 5072 05731 0257 -045 -081 330029 029 025 000 00
184500 1757N 05916W 5072 05730 0258 -045 -085 332029 030 026 000 00

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS is much more left hitting Cape Cod,Nova Scotia and New Foundland.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[littlevince]

My last map:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12z NOGAPS is much more left hitting Cape Cod,Nova Scotia and New Foundland.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

Thats the eyewall over martha's vinyard/cape cod

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191855
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 31 20090819
184530 1757N 05918W 5072 05732 0260 -046 -089 334030 030 025 000 00
184600 1757N 05921W 5072 05732 0261 -045 -094 331030 030 022 000 00
184630 1758N 05924W 5073 05725 0262 -045 -082 331027 028 022 000 00
184700 1758N 05926W 5073 05731 0262 -045 -084 328023 023 024 000 00
184730 1758N 05929W 5073 05728 0263 -045 -090 327022 022 023 000 00
184800 1758N 05931W 5072 05727 0264 -046 -096 328022 022 022 000 00
184830 1758N 05934W 5073 05731 0266 -045 -082 338021 022 022 000 00
184900 1758N 05937W 5076 05725 0267 -045 -083 343023 024 023 000 00
184930 1758N 05939W 5074 05731 0267 -045 -077 344024 024 020 001 00
185000 1758N 05942W 5074 05731 0268 -045 -069 342022 023 022 000 00
185030 1758N 05945W 5074 05735 0267 -045 -071 339022 022 023 000 00
185100 1758N 05947W 5074 05734 0269 -045 -071 343025 026 023 000 00
185130 1758N 05950W 5074 05735 0271 -045 -097 346027 027 022 000 00
185200 1758N 05953W 5076 05736 0271 -043 -093 347028 029 022 000 03
185230 1758N 05956W 5073 05731 0272 -045 -074 350028 029 023 000 00
185300 1758N 05958W 5075 05734 0272 -049 -071 344023 025 023 000 00
185330 1758N 06001W 5073 05742 0274 -050 -116 345022 022 024 000 03
185400 1758N 06004W 5076 05736 0274 -049 -145 347023 023 023 000 00
185430 1758N 06006W 5072 05744 0275 -046 -153 351023 023 024 000 00
185500 1758N 06009W 5074 05742 0276 -045 -143 353021 022 023 000 03

[vbhoutex]

Models are starting to get somewhat worrisome for our New England friends and especially for those in the maritimes. I am hoping the trend we have seen reverses itself soon and leaves everyone with some breathing room. This wasn't totally unexpected after the discussions and models yesterday started showing the trough coming in slower.

[southerngale]

GFS had it spot on with its early runs when it was still a wave of africa. But took it a bit closer to the east coast than the cone is atm. One run took it right over NYC

Not to mention the multiple runs into New Orleans/Mississippi for the GFS, and the numerous hits to Florida. GFS has been consistently too far west/left with the track.

GFS took ana, not bill there.

GFS took "pre-Bill" into the GOM as well, not just Ana.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF hits Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[tolakram]

Nice to see Bill moving north of the islands (those close to the storm).

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 4km_visir2



Always an amazing site. Bigger than Ohio.

[Hurricaneman]

12z ECMWF hits Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

thats a HUGE shift west, im starting to get worried, but things could change

[wxman57]

Bill is very impressive. I wonder if it could become a Category 5 hurricane?

Doesn't appear likely, as it's already making the NW turn. Enhanced IR imagery showing warming cloud tops now. May be peaking today. Doesn't really look THAT big, just a bit above average in size. Way smaller than Ike as far as the core and hurricane force wind field.

I hear that there are super rapid-scan satellite images of Bill available from 19Z (now) to 23:15Z today:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... isloop.asp

[Brent]

[Gigsley]

URNT11 KNHC 191905
97779 19034 40180 60900 54600 36020 55578 /4586
RMK AF303 0203A BILL OB 15
SWS = 18 KTS
last report

[Macrocane]

That was a close call for the islands. Bill is a beautiful but dangerous hurricane. By the way, it seems that a little dry air enetered on Bill's circulation.

[shah8]

No...it's not Nova Scotia and Newfoundland that truly indicative of the euro shift. It's just how clost to Nantucket it gets. There is very little more shift north and west before we have to consider a major weather event in the US.