ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET reaches 71.2W then it curves to the NE.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.08.2009

HURRICANE BILL ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 55.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.08.2009 18.2N 55.6W INTENSE
00UTC 20.08.2009 19.7N 58.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 21.2N 61.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2009 22.6N 64.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 24.5N 67.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.08.2009 26.8N 69.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.08.2009 30.1N 71.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2009 33.9N 71.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2009 38.5N 70.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2009 43.3N 66.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 24.08.2009 46.9N 59.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2009 EXTRA-TROPICAL

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

[Derek Ortt]

thats about 200 miles south of Cape Cod

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191805
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 26 20090819
175530 1917N 05648W 6969 02696 9451 +188 +064 172007 008 021 002 03
175600 1916N 05650W 6970 02691 9454 +185 +065 217004 005 018 002 03
175630 1916N 05651W 6967 02694 9457 +183 +063 193002 002 025 002 00
175700 1916N 05653W 6973 02693 9456 +189 +058 161003 003 026 002 00
175730 1916N 05655W 6969 02702 9459 +191 +059 283002 006 021 000 03
175800 1915N 05657W 6973 02701 9460 +189 +073 331011 016 020 002 00
175830 1915N 05659W 6970 02708 9470 +182 +104 333026 031 023 002 03
175900 1913N 05700W 6973 02710 9483 +179 +096 324038 040 031 003 03
175930 1911N 05700W 6968 02729 9492 +181 +106 314053 061 053 001 03
180000 1910N 05701W 6964 02751 9517 +171 +119 313063 066 068 004 00
180030 1909N 05703W 6972 02761 9526 +184 +113 307079 083 080 004 00
180100 1908N 05704W 6976 02772 9552 +169 +116 296084 087 080 004 03
180130 1907N 05705W 6957 02809 9598 +142 +131 298082 086 081 006 00
180200 1906N 05706W 6970 02820 9628 +139 +130 301083 084 079 005 00
180230 1905N 05707W 6969 02845 9657 +132 +132 305081 083 074 004 00
180300 1904N 05708W 6961 02877 9690 +128 +128 309079 080 069 004 00
180330 1903N 05709W 6983 02867 9697 +143 +108 310078 080 066 003 00
180400 1902N 05710W 6970 02901 9716 +143 +096 313074 076 065 002 00
180430 1900N 05712W 6976 02908 9731 +147 +073 311073 074 064 002 00
180500 1859N 05713W 6969 02927 9754 +137 +077 313072 073 062 003 00

[littlevince]

[Gigsley]

135 kt FL winds just found (that is 121 kt at the surface). Need a dropsonde to find out more though.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS had it spot on with its early runs when it was still a wave of africa. But took it a bit closer to the east coast than the cone is atm. One run took it right over NYC

Not to mention the multiple runs into New Orleans/Mississippi for the GFS, and the numerous hits to Florida. GFS has been consistently too far west/left with the track.

GFS took ana, not bill there.

[CrazyC83]

GFS had it spot on with its early runs when it was still a wave of africa. But took it a bit closer to the east coast than the cone is atm. One run took it right over NYC

Now that would surely be catastrophic.

[thetruesms]

I suppose it all depends on what your standard for success is. If all you care about is how closely the forecast line matches to what the actual line ends up looking like - the end result - then yeah, the EC did great. But for those who have a higher standard (those working on the model, for instance), there's got to be kind of a hollow satisfaction in taking the wrong path to get to the right destination.

We don't get any of the high-resolution EC data here - way too expensive. So all I can see is the free stuff on the ECMWF home page or on the Penn State E-wall. So it's not clear to me what you and Derek are saying about how it got the track right for the wrong reason.

My post was pretty harsh, wasn't it? I blame it on the fact that I haven't had my lunch yet. But as Derek said, it had some very persistent short-term issues early on. It seemed like run after run, it wasn't even close after 24 hours - it kind of degraded the credibility of the run as a whole. Yes, it has pegged some of the larger features that will govern the motion, but aren't these things that we knew the EC was pretty good at in the first place? But when there's a big issue in the short term, sometimes you have to wonder if it's going to be in the right spot to interact with the features it is getting well like it says it will.

Assuming the people at the ECMWF are like most/all of the modelers I know, they'll feel good about what they did get right - namely, the recurve. But they will focus more on what didn't work so well, why, and how to improve it - namely, the short term speed issues, and how that impacts when/where the recurve happens

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191815
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 27 20090819
180530 1858N 05714W 6970 02942 9777 +126 +093 313068 068 062 002 00
180600 1857N 05715W 6969 02950 9799 +114 +104 312063 067 060 002 00
180630 1856N 05716W 6968 02961 9808 +116 +102 312062 064 059 003 00
180700 1855N 05718W 6974 02968 9819 +114 +110 309059 061 057 001 00
180730 1853N 05719W 6968 02979 9828 +113 +113 307056 057 051 003 00
180800 1852N 05720W 6970 02984 9839 +110 +110 307055 055 050 004 00
180830 1851N 05721W 6967 02995 9846 +112 +103 307052 052 051 005 00
180900 1851N 05721W 6967 02995 9851 +112 +101 308050 051 051 005 00
180930 1849N 05724W 6974 02999 9864 +109 +107 309047 047 051 004 00
181000 1848N 05725W 6967 03011 9877 +103 +103 309045 045 049 005 00
181030 1846N 05726W 6973 03007 9882 +097 +097 308042 044 049 007 01
181100 1845N 05727W 6972 03016 9888 +099 +099 308042 043 049 006 00
181130 1844N 05729W 6969 03022 9891 +100 +100 309041 041 049 006 00
181200 1843N 05730W 6967 03026 9897 +101 +101 311040 040 050 007 00
181230 1842N 05731W 6969 03031 9901 +100 +100 317042 043 050 007 00
181300 1841N 05732W 6974 03029 9909 +098 +098 319040 042 050 007 00
181330 1839N 05734W 6966 03041 9915 +094 +094 326038 041 051 008 01
181400 1838N 05735W 6967 03042 9990 +092 +999 331038 042 052 009 01
181430 1837N 05736W 6968 03050 9990 +076 +999 332047 050 051 010 01
181500 1835N 05738W 6966 03058 9938 +094 +094 316043 046 050 008 00

[Stormcenter]

Let's see the EC was the "ONLY" model that showed a curve out to sea way before the other models chimed in. So IMO it did a GREAT job with Bill. It obviously saw something the other models missed.

[littlevince]

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS had it spot on with its early runs when it was still a wave of africa. But took it a bit closer to the east coast than the cone is atm. One run took it right over NYC

Now that would surely be catastrophic.

maybe a 1% CHANCE bill's eye will ever get within 100 km of NYC

[ladilan]

Wow...was just checking out the latest models are this the most recent?

[JTE50]

Comparison between Bill and Fabian in 2003 which scored a direct hit on Bermuda. Fabian was 140 mph at the initial point.

[Gigsley]

URNT12 KNHC 191819
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 19/17:57:30Z
B. 19 deg 16 min N
056 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2665 m
D. 102 kt
E. 056 deg 24 nm
F. 134 deg 135 kt
G. 055 deg 27 nm
H. 948 mb
I. 11 C / 3045 m
J. 19 C / 3047 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C32
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
P. AF303 0203A BILL OB 12
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 17:48:30Z

[CourierPR]

Wow...was just checking out the latest models are this the most recent?

What are you referring to ?

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191825
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 28 20090819
181530 1835N 05738W 6966 03058 9940 +097 +097 311043 043 046 005 00
181600 1833N 05740W 6970 03066 9944 +095 +095 310043 044 046 003 00
181630 1832N 05741W 6970 03063 9946 +095 +095 305042 042 043 003 00
181700 1831N 05742W 6967 03069 9948 +096 +096 306041 042 043 003 00
181730 1830N 05744W 6970 03073 9953 +095 +095 306041 042 044 002 00
181800 1828N 05745W 6970 03074 9958 +095 +095 308039 039 044 003 00
181830 1827N 05746W 6971 03073 9960 +095 +095 310038 038 042 002 00
181900 1826N 05747W 6970 03080 9966 +095 +095 311038 038 041 003 00
181930 1825N 05749W 6971 03079 9971 +093 +093 312038 039 041 003 00
182000 1824N 05750W 6970 03082 9974 +091 +091 310039 040 040 004 00
182030 1822N 05751W 6969 03088 9979 +090 +090 309039 040 039 004 00
182100 1821N 05752W 6969 03090 9986 +090 +090 309038 039 039 003 00
182130 1820N 05754W 6970 03093 9988 +090 +090 307039 039 038 004 00
182200 1819N 05755W 6970 03092 9990 +090 +090 313040 040 038 002 00
182230 1818N 05756W 6973 03092 9993 +090 +090 315042 043 035 003 00
182300 1816N 05757W 6971 03096 9995 +090 +090 317045 046 036 002 00
182330 1815N 05759W 6970 03099 9998 +088 +088 317047 048 035 003 00
182400 1814N 05800W 6970 03105 9992 +095 +086 318045 046 035 003 00
182430 1813N 05801W 6970 03105 9994 +098 +089 315041 044 035 003 00
182500 1812N 05802W 6969 03108 0003 +091 +091 316039 039 036 002 00

[littlevince]

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track=115kts

AL, 03, 2009081918, , BEST, 0, 193N, 569W, 115, 947, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[x-y-no]

Revised Vortex message - 947mb

----

URNT12 KNHC 191819 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 19/17:57:30Z
B. 19 deg 16 min N
056 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2665 m
D. 102 kt
E. 056 deg 24 nm
F. 134 deg 135 kt
G. 055 deg 27 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 11 C / 3045 m
J. 19 C / 3047 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C32
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
P. AF303 0203A BILL OB 12 CCA
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 17:48:30Z
;