ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[wxman57]

If you take out the garbage "models" like cliper, lbar, BAMs, and the extrapolate track, there's amazing model agreement with Erika. The outliers are the HWRF, which always seems to be way right of all the other models, the GFDL, which is also way right of the other models, and the GFS, which doesn't see Erika well, apparently.

Can't rule out an East U.S. Coast hit, but I wouldn't be making comparisons to Andrew or Hugo at this point. There isn't anything to suggest a strong ridge building north of Erika beyond 5 days - yet.

[HURAKAN]

Is RECON going in tonight anytime?

04z

[marciacubed]

She is a huge storm. She looks the size of Fl

[UpTheCreek]

Here I was, just enjoying the storm....but this is an onimous change of events! Are we looking at early next week should some of these models pan out?

[mf_dolphin]

If you take out the garbage "models" like cliper, lbar, BAMs, and the extrapolate track, there's amazing model agreement with Erika. The outliers are the HWRF, which always seems to be way right of all the other models, the GFDL, which is also way right of the other models, and the GFS, which doesn't see Erika well, apparently.

Can't rule out an East U.S. Coast hit, but I wouldn't be making comparisons to Andrew or Hugo at this point. There isn't anything to suggest a strong ridge building north of Erika beyond 5 days - yet.

Did you have to use the word YET?

[Ivanhater]

If you take out the garbage "models" like cliper, lbar, BAMs, and the extrapolate track, there's amazing model agreement with Erika. The outliers are the HWRF, which always seems to be way right of all the other models, the GFDL, which is also way right of the other models, and the GFS, which doesn't see Erika well, apparently.

Can't rule out an East U.S. Coast hit, but I wouldn't be making comparisons to Andrew or Hugo at this point. There isn't anything to suggest a strong ridge building north of Erika beyond 5 days - yet.

Yeah wxman, there was good agreement with Ike as well to turn east of Florida. The trough is not very strong and there is evidence of a ridge building back in after the weakness lifts out, not saying it will happen, but I'm always looking for every scenario

[tailgater]

Still doesn't look stacked, LLC on NW edge.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
No banding showing up yet but as I said before this storm could easily deepen quickly with CAT 2 possible by this time tomorrow. IHMAO

[hurricanetrack]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

It makes all the waiting and the negative Nancy comments over the last few days so worth while. Now, on to round two....

[otowntiger]

If you take out the garbage "models" like cliper, lbar, BAMs, and the extrapolate track, there's amazing model agreement with Erika. The outliers are the HWRF, which always seems to be way right of all the other models, the GFDL, which is also way right of the other models, and the GFS, which doesn't see Erika well, apparently.

Can't rule out an East U.S. Coast hit, but I wouldn't be making comparisons to Andrew or Hugo at this point. There isn't anything to suggest a strong ridge building north of Erika beyond 5 days - yet.

But you've got to admit that there does seem to have been trend to the west even with all those models that are in such good agreement at this time, right?

[Evil Jeremy]

which models?

Pretty much all of them.

To sum up the latest model run, the 00z BAM's have shifted significantly north (but they don't really count in the first place lol). The 00z CMC is virtually identically to the 18z run, which is very close to the center of the NHC cone. the 18z GFDL and HWRF have shifted south and west, and the 18z NOGAPS seems to be more north but more west than the previous run. The 18z GFS is the southern outlier, taking it into the (south part of the) Northern Bahamas. Overall, the TVCN, which represents the average of all the models above combined, has shifted a little south and west.

[expat2carib]

The shear is very low to the south of it and slight stronger to it's north, may be it's why the cloud mass is expanding southward and westward

Sounds logical to me. My concern is what will be the impact in the next 24 hours for the islands west of her. Any ideas?

[Evil Jeremy]

I think we will see a nice wind field expansion at the 11 PM advisory.

[curtadams]

Why are the floaters running 3 hours behind? They were fine this morning.

[lonelymike]

I said long ago just after it came off Africa that I had a feeling about this one for the NE Carib Islands and the CONUS!

Uh-huh

[HURAKAN]

[bahamaswx]

Could be a fairly significant rain event in the islands at this rate. Getting pretty close.

[otowntiger]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

It makes all the waiting and the negative Nancy comments over the last few days so worth while. Now, on to round two....

That is quite a blow up. But you've gotta admit this thing has been as fickle as they come over the last 5-6 days. It kept toying with us with a big blow up, then itd whimp out. Even Derek Orrt was saying this morning that the fat lady was about to sing when he noted that it had just spit out 4 outflow boundaries. So you can't convince me that you so sure this intensification would happen just 12 hours ago. By the way, since Erica has been so unpredictable who's to say she won't be getting sheared apart and significantly diminish tomorrow?

[otowntiger]

That's funny! Look at poor little ole Danny. He looks like he was the "special one" in the family with serious "developmental" issues. Pun intended.

[Ivanhater]

[O Town]

Good one !