ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[btangy]

8/19/09 12 NAM: It shears the upper level low to the E of NC having one section diving S and another piece merging with the other upper level low to its E. The piece diving S is quite a bit different than progged the 00Z run, but current water vapor imagery does show the upper low beginning to elongate. It will play a role in the steering pattern and vertical wind shear over Bill.

With regards to the Midwest trough, it has backtracked a bit on the strength and has the northern part of the trough lifting out faster. In fact, the entire jet pattern in the mid-latitudes appears to have been displaced further N in this run. However, it has more energy hanging back S along the MS River resulting in an elongated, positively tilted orientation. Hard to say if this will lead to Bill getting closer or farther from New England.

[thetruesms]

This trend is disturbing indeed. I'm liking the model probability graphic a lot, though. Nice little bit of programming, btangy

[cpdaman]

281.25-303.75 is wnw

303.75-326.25 = nw so basically it is moving wnw/nw

[tolakram]

[thetruesms]

8/19/09 12 NAM: It shears the upper level low to the E of NC having one section diving S and another piece merging with the other upper level low to its E. The piece diving S is quite a bit different than progged the 00Z run, but current water vapor imagery does show the upper low beginning to elongate. It will play a role in the steering pattern and vertical wind shear over Bill.

With regards to the Midwest trough, it has backtracked a bit on the strength and has the northern part of the trough lifting out faster. In fact, the entire jet pattern in the mid-latitudes appears to have been displaced further N in this run. However, it has more energy hanging back S along the MS River resulting in an elongated, positively tilted orientation. Hard to say if this will lead to Bill getting closer or farther from New England.

Hmm, intuitively, it seems to me like that might allow it to take a more westward track in the short term, but then result in a more dramatic swing away from the coast later in the period. That would all be contingent on how severe that positive tilt is, and how much more quickly it lifts out, though.

[TheEuropean]

Deleted

[KWT]

Still looking very good on that Sat.picture tolakram. Its pretty much moving on a NW heading now based on that 306.

[CrazyC83]

Is there any chance this could turn into something similar to the 1938 hurricane?

[Frank2]

The WV loop seems to verify what btangy is saying - the progress of systems (per the TCD's of the past few days) doesn't seem as straight-forward as the NHC had hoped...

Frank

[Gigsley]

This is 9

URNT15 KNHC 191515
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 09 20090819
150530 1916N 05943W 4862 06088 0308 -066 -073 044029 029 036 007 00
150600 1918N 05941W 4865 06081 0308 -065 -071 054030 031 038 006 00
150630 1919N 05939W 4864 06078 0307 -063 -073 051030 031 037 007 00
150700 1920N 05937W 4861 06086 0308 -061 -078 052028 028 036 005 00
150730 1921N 05935W 4863 06085 0306 -065 -066 050027 028 036 005 00
150800 1922N 05933W 4862 06090 0305 -066 -066 038024 027 034 001 00
150830 1923N 05931W 4862 06084 0306 -065 -065 035027 028 033 002 00
150900 1924N 05929W 4859 06089 0306 -065 -067 039027 029 034 002 00
150930 1925N 05927W 4860 06088 0307 -065 -073 049031 032 035 001 00
151000 1926N 05925W 4863 06085 0307 -061 -086 051030 030 034 000 03
151030 1927N 05923W 4861 06084 0306 -065 -082 040029 030 033 000 00
151100 1929N 05921W 4861 06081 0306 -066 -080 039027 028 033 000 03
151130 1930N 05919W 4861 06088 0304 -071 -086 039028 028 033 000 00
151200 1931N 05917W 4857 06090 0306 -074 -082 035030 031 033 000 00
151230 1932N 05915W 4863 06078 0305 -067 -099 038029 030 032 000 00
151300 1933N 05913W 4865 06076 0305 -065 -100 035028 029 032 000 00
151330 1934N 05911W 4865 06080 0306 -065 -086 039031 032 033 000 00
151400 1935N 05908W 4866 06081 0305 -063 -089 037032 032 034 000 00
151430 1937N 05906W 4864 06082 0304 -064 -098 036033 033 034 000 00
151500 1938N 05904W 4872 06070 0302 -058 -102 036034 034 036 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Now we await for the rest of the models in the 12z package to see any shift more west.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191525
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 10 20090819
151530 1939N 05902W 4863 06077 0300 -058 -090 037033 034 037 000 00
151600 1940N 05900W 4861 06076 0300 -062 -076 048034 035 036 000 00
151630 1941N 05858W 4863 06078 0300 -060 -075 051035 036 036 000 00
151700 1941N 05858W 4863 06078 0299 -063 -072 048036 036 037 000 03
151730 1943N 05854W 4863 06070 0298 -065 -070 045037 039 037 000 03
151800 1944N 05852W 4865 06071 0298 -065 -070 043040 041 037 000 03
151830 1945N 05850W 4865 06072 0297 -063 -070 041039 040 037 000 00
151900 1946N 05848W 4863 06069 0295 -060 -075 038038 039 036 000 03
151930 1946N 05846W 4863 06070 0296 -060 -071 038037 037 037 000 00
152000 1947N 05844W 4860 06081 0295 -059 -072 044040 041 037 000 03
152030 1948N 05842W 4864 06071 0293 -054 -075 045040 041 036 000 00
152100 1949N 05840W 4860 06074 0294 -057 -073 043044 045 037 000 00
152130 1950N 05838W 4860 06076 0294 -062 -070 039046 047 037 000 00
152200 1951N 05837W 4861 06074 0294 -065 -065 039044 044 038 000 00
152230 1952N 05835W 4859 06074 0294 -062 -073 043044 044 038 000 00
152300 1953N 05833W 4861 06077 0293 -065 -066 049042 043 038 000 00
152330 1953N 05831W 4860 06076 0292 -063 -068 050039 041 038 000 00
152400 1954N 05829W 4859 06074 0292 -060 -076 050040 040 039 000 03
152430 1955N 05827W 4860 06074 0291 -061 -072 052041 041 039 000 00
152500 1956N 05826W 4859 06077 0291 -061 -071 052043 043 040 000 03

000
URNT15 KNHC 191535
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 11 20090819
152530 1957N 05824W 4861 06073 0290 -060 -072 050042 043 041 000 03
152600 1958N 05822W 4859 06075 0290 -055 -075 047044 045 042 000 00
152630 1959N 05820W 4862 06075 0290 -057 -075 047045 045 043 000 03
152700 1959N 05818W 4862 06068 0290 -064 -069 054042 044 043 000 00
152730 2000N 05816W 4859 06071 0289 -065 -069 055042 042 043 000 00
152800 2001N 05815W 4859 06071 0287 -061 -064 057044 044 042 000 00
152830 2002N 05813W 4861 06066 0286 -060 -063 058044 044 042 000 00
152900 2003N 05811W 4860 06064 0287 -060 -060 058043 044 042 000 00
152930 2004N 05809W 4861 06067 0286 -058 -059 056043 043 042 000 00
153000 2004N 05807W 4859 06072 0287 -057 -059 055043 044 040 000 00
153030 2005N 05805W 4857 06065 0285 -056 -061 056042 043 040 000 00
153100 2006N 05804W 4857 06074 0286 -056 -060 058043 043 041 000 00
153130 2007N 05802W 4861 06067 0284 -058 -059 060041 041 040 001 00
153200 2008N 05800W 4861 06063 0284 -060 -060 059042 042 040 005 03
153230 2009N 05758W 4866 06058 0283 -060 -060 055042 043 999 999 03
153300 2011N 05757W 4861 06061 0287 -060 -060 054044 045 999 999 03
153330 2013N 05758W 4860 06071 0291 -060 -060 054048 049 999 999 03
153400 2014N 05801W 4992 05868 0282 -051 -051 053047 048 999 999 03
153430 2013N 05803W 5409 05234 0244 -021 -021 053044 045 999 999 03
153500 2010N 05804W 5808 04661 0062 +005 +005 054042 043 999 999 03

[cycloneye]

A very busy squadron in the next few days.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 19 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE BILL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 20/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0403A BILL
C. 20/1430Z
D. 22.5N 62.0W
E. 20/1600Z TO 20/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 21/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0503A BILL
C. 20/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73
A. 21/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0603A BILL
C. 20/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 24,000 TO 30,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 21/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0703A BILL
C. 21/0200Z
D. 24.4N 64.4W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.
A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 22/0000Z.

[cycloneye]

They will be very busy.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 19 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE BILL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 20/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0403A BILL
C. 20/1430Z
D. 22.5N 62.0W
E. 20/1600Z TO 20/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 21/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0503A BILL
C. 20/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73
A. 21/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0603A BILL
C. 20/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 24,000 TO 30,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 21/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0703A BILL
C. 21/0200Z
D. 24.4N 64.4W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.
A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 22/0000Z.

[storms NC]

It is but it will jump back to the west for a few then back to About 300-305.

It is a short path that Bill will have to get into. With the High on left and the ULL to the right. That is going to be close if he can make it in time. If he don't I think you will see a stall till he can fine his way. JMO only.
take a look here. Check the NWS fronts

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191545
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 12 20090819
153530 2008N 05803W 6190 04155 0076 +039 +015 062044 047 999 999 03
153600 2008N 05801W 6387 03885 0079 +044 +042 062053 055 999 999 03
153630 2008N 05759W 6712 03477 0077 +069 +039 068054 055 999 999 03
153700 2009N 05757W 6967 03164 0075 +086 +039 065055 058 043 000 03
153730 2010N 05756W 6989 03139 0080 +085 +039 065059 060 042 000 03
153800 2009N 05754W 6966 03161 0076 +082 +039 062060 060 038 002 03
153830 2008N 05753W 6970 03153 0071 +083 +039 061060 061 040 001 00
153900 2007N 05752W 6971 03152 0071 +082 +039 062060 061 039 000 00
153930 2006N 05751W 6971 03145 0065 +085 +039 063057 057 039 001 00
154000 2005N 05750W 6969 03148 0058 +086 +062 063057 058 038 000 00
154030 2004N 05748W 6974 03139 0050 +089 +071 063057 059 038 001 00
154100 2003N 05747W 6971 03142 0051 +087 +084 063059 060 039 002 00
154130 2002N 05746W 6969 03144 0048 +088 +083 063059 060 038 003 00
154200 2001N 05745W 6969 03146 0045 +088 +085 064059 061 038 003 00
154230 1959N 05744W 6972 03139 0045 +086 +086 063059 061 041 004 00
154300 1958N 05742W 6967 03143 0044 +087 +083 062058 058 039 005 00
154330 1958N 05741W 6973 03135 0041 +084 +083 062062 065 040 009 00
154400 1957N 05740W 6963 03143 0058 +077 +022 060065 067 043 007 00
154430 1956N 05739W 6970 03128 0048 +083 +020 059064 065 042 005 00
154500 1955N 05737W 6969 03132 0043 +088 +020 057062 063 043 002 00

[storms NC]

From the 11:00 AM update
moving at 300.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.7N 56.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB

[Frank2]

True, though the 00Z runs should be even more interesting...

Frank

[Thunder44]

The 12z/19 GFS looks closer to New England out to 90 hours so far here:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_ ... opnew.html

Still a miss for New England but it hits SW Nova Scotia this time by 108hrs.

[TheEuropean]

On route to the center

000
URNT15 KNHC 191555
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 13 20090819
154530 1954N 05736W 6972 03126 0039 +090 +020 056063 064 045 001 00
154600 1953N 05735W 6968 03130 0035 +090 +020 055064 064 046 001 00
154630 1952N 05733W 6972 03126 0041 +085 +020 057066 067 049 001 00
154700 1951N 05732W 6970 03121 0042 +080 +020 056070 071 049 001 00
154730 1951N 05731W 6973 03115 0037 +082 +020 056068 069 049 000 00
154800 1950N 05730W 6971 03121 0033 +083 +020 057066 066 049 002 00
154830 1949N 05728W 6965 03114 0037 +076 +020 056069 071 049 004 00
154900 1948N 05727W 6970 03113 0027 +082 +020 061077 080 048 005 00
154930 1947N 05726W 6968 03104 0017 +085 +020 062081 081 050 004 00
155000 1946N 05725W 6969 03106 0017 +085 +020 061080 080 051 005 00
155030 1946N 05724W 6974 03093 0016 +081 +020 060079 081 051 006 00
155100 1945N 05722W 6975 03093 0014 +081 +020 059077 080 053 005 00
155130 1944N 05721W 6974 03092 0013 +079 +020 059074 075 053 005 00
155200 1943N 05720W 6972 03091 0005 +083 +020 056078 078 053 004 00
155230 1942N 05719W 6970 03096 9995 +083 +083 060076 077 054 004 00
155300 1941N 05717W 6969 03089 9982 +090 +090 062071 072 054 003 00
155330 1941N 05716W 6968 03086 9971 +096 +096 060069 071 054 005 00
155400 1940N 05715W 6972 03076 9964 +099 +099 061070 071 056 005 00
155430 1939N 05714W 6970 03075 9968 +093 +093 064073 074 055 006 00
155500 1938N 05713W 6975 03068 9955 +098 +098 067071 073 056 008 00