EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[ozonepete]

With its windfield and structure, this is certainly not headed to Wilma levels pressure-wise.

Could not agree more. Could certainly get below 900mb, but nowhere near Wilma.

[CrazyC83]

With its windfield and structure, this is certainly not headed to Wilma levels pressure-wise.

Could not agree more. Could certainly get below 900mb, but nowhere near Wilma.

882mb would translate to about 175-180 kt in the environment Rick is in. That would be a world record for winds.

[Ptarmigan]

882mb would translate to about 175-180 kt in the environment Rick is in. That would be a world record for winds.

I think Rick will have a pressure of 898 mb at most. Also, Rick is about average size and the ambient pressure is higher. 882 mb in the WPAC would be around 135 to 145 knots.

[bombarderoazul]

Amazing! a rare epac monster. Does this mean, that rick is officially the strongest cyclone so far this year in the entire world?

[MGC]

Really no need to send recon in.....why risk the crew's lives? I would task the gulfstream though. Get a good look at the upper enviroment so landfall could be better pinpointed. Amazing hurricane, glad I don't have to wake up tomorrow and pack and run like I did for Katrina.....MGC

[Ptarmigan]

Amazing! a rare epac monster. Does this mean, that rick is officially the strongest cyclone so far this year in the entire world?

Looks like it.

[Macrocane]

WOW! Beautiful! I wonder if it will be able to beat Linda's record, I think it will, if an EWRC doesn't occur. By the way Rick is now stronger than Melor thus the strongest tropical cyclone of the year.

[Ptarmigan]

WOW! Beautiful! I wonder if it will be able to beat Linda's record, I think it will, if an EWRC doesn't occur. By the way Rick is now stronger than Melor thus the strongest tropical cyclone of the year.

I saw a prediction from NHC that has Rick with 185 mph winds. That would beat Linda.

[CrazyC83]

WOW! Beautiful! I wonder if it will be able to beat Linda's record, I think it will, if an EWRC doesn't occur. By the way Rick is now stronger than Melor thus the strongest tropical cyclone of the year.

I saw a prediction from NHC that has Rick with 185 mph winds. That would beat Linda.

Actually, that would tie Linda. What was the windfield of Linda though?

[CrazyC83]

Really no need to send recon in.....why risk the crew's lives? I would task the gulfstream though. Get a good look at the upper enviroment so landfall could be better pinpointed. Amazing hurricane, glad I don't have to wake up tomorrow and pack and run like I did for Katrina.....MGC

If this was in the Gulf of Mexico, there would be serious panic setting in right now.

[Weather Watcher]

I am glad it is not in the Gulf!!

[Squarethecircle]

ADT still inching upwards:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 908.8mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.5 7.7 7.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +18.9C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

[CrazyC83]

ADT still inching upwards:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 908.8mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.5 7.7 7.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +18.9C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

T7.7 = 161 kt, so it could definitely get past Linda. Can Rick go all the way to T8.0?

[cycloneye]

Observations from the Island of Socorro.Nothing of interest right now,only the pressure is below 1005 mbs and the winds are blowing normally.It will be interesting to see the observations from this island as Rick gets closer.

Code: Select all

Estacion: Isla Socorro, Colima.
 SIA. I. MET.                 
                               
 AAAA-MM-DD-HH:MM    Dirs      Mgts     Dirmx     Mgtmx     Temp       Hr      Slp      Pcp
 2009-10-18-00:00    53.0      13.0      54.0      18.3     28.0     79.0   1003.9      0.0
 2009-10-18-01:00    48.0      10.0      53.0      15.8     27.4     82.0   1004.2      0.0
 2009-10-18-02:00    57.0      11.5      51.0      16.7     27.1     84.0   1004.7      0.0

http://meteorologia.semar.gob.mx/datos_emas/socorro.dat

[Chacor]

Remember, for its strength, Rick has a very small windfield:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES...250 KM.

[btangy]

From the SSMI and AMSUB overpasses around 01Z, it looks like an outer eyewall may be beginning to form. If so, Rick probably won't get to 160 knots in the books. You can see the cirrus to the SW of Rick is also stationary indicating there are some upper level winds there that are beginning to impinge slightly on the tremendous outflow, so there's reason to believe Rick has flexed its muscles and will begin a slow atrophy soon.

[CrazyC83]

Not done yet, but maybe it is FINALLY peaking? ADT now supports an intensity of 160 kt.

-----------------------------

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2009 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 14:57:40 N Lon : 106:06:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 905.6mb/158.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.6 7.6 7.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +19.0C Cloud Region Temp : -76.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Squarethecircle]

It is indeed very difficult for a storm to get much more intense than Rick already is. Additionally, all it takes is the beginning of an EWRC and that would be it in terms of intensification.

[ozonepete]

Looks like it's at peak and will not get stronger than Linda after all.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look very impressive