ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[weatherSnoop]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 02:26Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Bill2
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 2:03Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°8'N 53°28'W (17.1333N 53.4667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 496 miles (799 km) between the NE and ENE (56°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,744m (9,003ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the E (81°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 169° at 127kts (From the S at ~ 146.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the E (83°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 958mb (28.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 127kts (~ 146.1mph) in the east quadrant at 1:55Z

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT15 KWBC 190248
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 41 20090819
023830 1709N 05609W 6433 03832 0061 +060 +038 024037 038 999 999 03
023900 1707N 05610W 6435 03832 0064 +060 +037 022035 036 999 999 03
023930 1705N 05612W 6435 03831 0066 +058 +039 024034 034 999 999 03
024000 1703N 05613W 6434 03834 0069 +056 +040 023033 034 999 999 03
024030 1701N 05615W 6434 03835 0075 +053 +040 026036 036 999 999 03
024100 1659N 05616W 6434 03835 0076 +054 +038 025035 036 999 999 03
024130 1657N 05618W 6433 03838 0075 +054 +043 019035 036 999 999 03
024200 1655N 05619W 6435 03836 0071 +057 +043 021036 036 999 999 03
024230 1653N 05621W 6435 03836 0067 +060 +041 024035 035 010 000 03
024300 1651N 05622W 6435 03835 0058 +067 +029 025035 035 999 999 03
024330 1649N 05624W 6434 03836 0058 +066 +035 025032 033 999 999 03
024400 1647N 05625W 6435 03834 0065 +061 +040 017033 034 007 000 03
024430 1645N 05627W 6433 03837 0067 +058 +052 010032 033 012 000 03
024500 1643N 05628W 6433 03837 0066 +059 +052 013028 030 013 000 03
024530 1641N 05629W 6434 03836 0063 +062 +040 010027 029 999 999 03
024600 1639N 05630W 6433 03838 0062 +062 +047 009028 030 014 011 03
024630 1637N 05632W 6434 03836 0067 +060 +043 012028 028 999 999 03
024700 1635N 05633W 6435 03837 0070 +059 +044 015028 028 999 999 03
024730 1633N 05635W 6433 03841 0070 +060 +046 015028 029 999 999 03
024800 1631N 05637W 6432 03843 0069 +061 +044 016028 029 008 000 03

40 missed

[wxman57]

Has anyone seen a size estimate of Bill today?

See the latest marine advisory (forecast advisory) on the NHC page. Hurricane force winds out to 40 nautical miles. That's about 1/3 the size of Ike if you just compare 64kt radii. Bill is a little above average in size, but not huge.

[deltadog03]

I know its the nam, but possible? again, I know its the NAM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml



notice how the ridge is showing more of a nosing over the top of bill. btw, is that ana in the gom>?

[btangy]

The 00Z NAM has trended even more amplified with the trough developing in the Midwest and continues showing a split jet with a slight omega block pattern in the S stream. Highly anomalous for this time of year, but we've had some big anomalous troughs already this summer so there is recent precedent. The pattern is significantly more amplified and slower than the 12Z GFS, though the HPC is favoring the GFS longwave pattern in their model diagnostic discussion.

[sponger]

40 seems small for such a large circulation. Must be 300 miles across. Lets see how large it can grow before getting to cooler water. If it merges with the cold front or gets extra tropical we could see a much wider circulation and more wave damage for the NE

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT15 KWBC 190258
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 42 20090819
024830 1629N 05638W 6432 03843 0065 +064 +042 020030 031 008 000 03
024900 1627N 05640W 6432 03844 0064 +065 +044 021031 031 999 999 03
024930 1625N 05642W 6431 03845 0064 +065 +041 021028 029 008 000 03
025000 1623N 05643W 6432 03845 0065 +065 +041 020026 027 009 000 03
025030 1621N 05645W 6431 03846 0065 +066 +039 021027 027 006 000 03
025100 1619N 05647W 6432 03846 0070 +063 +040 024026 027 005 000 03
025130 1617N 05649W 6432 03847 0071 +063 +039 025024 026 004 000 00
025200 1615N 05650W 6431 03848 0072 +062 +039 023023 024 008 000 03
025230 1613N 05652W 6432 03849 0074 +062 +039 025023 023 005 000 03
025300 1611N 05654W 6432 03849 0072 +063 +042 023023 024 007 000 03
025330 1609N 05655W 6433 03847 0066 +067 +041 018024 025 007 000 03
025400 1607N 05657W 6432 03849 0063 +070 +038 016023 024 007 000 03
025430 1605N 05659W 6432 03849 0064 +069 +035 016022 022 005 000 03
025500 1602N 05701W 6432 03849 0064 +071 +024 019022 023 006 000 03
025530 1600N 05702W 6433 03849 0067 +069 +025 019024 024 005 000 03
025600 1558N 05704W 6433 03850 0071 +067 +027 021024 024 005 000 03
025630 1556N 05705W 6433 03851 0075 +065 +030 018022 023 004 000 00
025700 1554N 05707W 6432 03852 0071 +068 +028 012020 020 002 000 03
025730 1552N 05709W 6432 03852 0071 +068 +028 006017 018 005 000 03
025800 1550N 05710W 6432 03852 0068 +070 +027 008018 018 004 000 03

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT15 KWBC 190308
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 43 20090819
025830 1548N 05712W 6433 03852 0072 +068 +028 011018 019 999 999 03
025900 1546N 05713W 6433 03850 0070 +069 +027 014019 019 999 999 03
025930 1543N 05715W 6433 03851 0069 +070 +025 015019 019 999 999 03
030000 1541N 05717W 6433 03852 0071 +068 +026 019020 020 999 999 03
030030 1539N 05718W 6433 03851 0069 +070 +023 019020 022 999 999 03
030100 1537N 05720W 6433 03852 0071 +069 +022 021021 022 999 999 03
030130 1535N 05722W 6433 03852 0077 +066 +012 021020 020 999 999 03
030200 1533N 05723W 6432 03853 0080 +065 +000 021019 020 999 999 03
030230 1531N 05725W 6432 03854 0074 +068 +013 018017 017 999 999 03
030300 1529N 05726W 6433 03853 0078 +066 +013 021018 018 999 999 03
030330 1527N 05728W 6433 03852 0081 +066 -018 021018 018 999 999 03
030400 1525N 05730W 6433 03853 0083 +067 -060 023018 018 999 999 03
030430 1523N 05731W 6432 03853 0083 +068 -093 022016 017 999 999 03
030500 1521N 05733W 6433 03854 0083 +070 -129 020015 016 999 999 03
030530 1518N 05735W 6432 03854 0086 +067 -099 016013 013 999 999 03
030600 1516N 05736W 6432 03854 0081 +072 -148 014011 011 999 999 03
030630 1514N 05738W 6432 03854 0082 +072 -172 010010 011 999 999 03
030700 1512N 05739W 6431 03854 0081 +073 -187 012010 010 999 999 03
030730 1510N 05741W 6433 03854 0083 +071 -180 006008 009 999 999 03
030800 1508N 05742W 6432 03854 0087 +069 -178 009009 009 999 999 03

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT15 KWBC 190318
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 44 20090819
030830 1506N 05744W 6432 03854 0088 +069 -180 012011 012 999 999 03
030900 1504N 05745W 6433 03854 0089 +068 -166 014012 012 999 999 03
030930 1502N 05747W 6433 03854 0091 +066 -153 011011 011 999 999 03
031000 1500N 05749W 6432 03854 0091 +066 -146 010010 010 999 999 03
031030 1458N 05750W 6433 03854 0090 +067 -144 010010 010 999 999 03
031100 1456N 05752W 6433 03854 0092 +066 -146 012010 011 999 999 03
031130 1454N 05753W 6433 03854 0094 +065 -150 012010 010 999 999 03
031200 1452N 05755W 6433 03855 0093 +065 -146 016010 011 999 999 03
031230 1450N 05756W 6433 03856 0094 +065 -141 025012 012 999 999 03
031300 1448N 05758W 6433 03856 0093 +066 -132 022012 012 999 999 03
031330 1446N 05759W 6431 03858 0093 +066 -143 019012 012 999 999 03
031400 1444N 05801W 6433 03855 0090 +068 -154 020011 012 999 999 03
031430 1442N 05803W 6433 03855 0087 +070 -152 017012 012 999 999 03
031500 1440N 05805W 6434 03854 0087 +069 -113 009013 014 999 999 03
031530 1438N 05806W 6432 03857 0088 +063 -004 020011 013 999 999 03
031600 1436N 05808W 6433 03856 0085 +068 -042 032012 013 999 999 03
031630 1434N 05810W 6432 03858 0092 +067 -123 015009 010 999 999 03
031700 1432N 05811W 6433 03857 0091 +069 -163 006009 010 999 999 03
031730 1430N 05813W 6433 03858 0092 +068 -160 002009 009 999 999 03
031800 1428N 05815W 6434 03857 0093 +068 -160 002008 009 999 999 03

Final Report-Headin' home

[MGC]

If and when Bill has an eyewall replacement cycle, the radius of hurricane force winds will likely increase along with eye size. I think Bill has a excellent chance to hit Cat-4......MGC

[shah8]

Dude, I did some pretty whack stuff back in college, you know...neuroscience with touches of quantum mechanics (the basic stuff isn't all that hard, actually) among other things.

I still don't understand what you've said after 3 rereadings. I can't pick out the meaning of the jargon from the context.

[Macrocane]

Yes, it has a very good chance of being a cat 4, maybe we will see the strongest hurricane of the season (or at least one of the strongest). Bill is now even stronger than the most intense hurricanes of the 2006 season (Helene and Gordon).

[MWatkins]

Dude, I did some pretty whack stuff back in college, you know...neuroscience with touches of quantum mechanics (the basic stuff isn't all that hard, actually) among other things.

I still don't understand what you've said after 3 rereadings. I can't pick out the meaning of the jargon from the context.

Essentially, the 0Z NAM had an even deeper trough in the central/eastern US, and "taller" ridge to the east. This looks somewhat like a blocking pattern in the atmosphere.

While this kind of pattern has happened at least a few times recently, it typically doesn't happen at this time of year.

This would move the trough to the east more slowly than the 12Z GFS, even though the HPC believes a more progressive pattern will be in play.

Does this help?

MW

PS....Good to see BTangy posting again, great stuff!!!

[deltadog03]

The new 00z GFS has bill a little further SW at hour 66 then the 12z run did. I notice a deeper and more slower progressing trof over the midwest with the new run. Also, the STR is nosing in more on top of bill and the H5 winds are almost E-W on its north side. We shall see...

[vbhoutex]

The 00Z NAM has trended even more amplified with the trough developing in the Midwest and continues showing a split jet with a slight omega block pattern in the S stream. Highly anomalous for this time of year, but we've had some big anomalous troughs already this summer so there is recent precedent. The pattern is significantly more amplified and slower than the 12Z GFS, though the HPC is favoring the GFS longwave pattern in their model diagnostic discussion.

Ok if the trough progresses slower than expected doesn't this at least slightly increase the threat to the East coast or New England?

[RL3AO]

Could a slower trough bring the northeast into play?

[mattpetre]

Looks to me that this current job more westwardly could spell a change in the models and produce more concern by tomorrow morning.

[btangy]

Dude, I did some pretty whack stuff back in college, you know...neuroscience with touches of quantum mechanics (the basic stuff isn't all that hard, actually) among other things.

I still don't understand what you've said after 3 rereadings. I can't pick out the meaning of the jargon from the context.

Sorry, it's easy to use all the meteorological jargon without explaining it. I'm just so used to it now that it's second nature. I'll just have MW translate for me every time I post something .

[mattpetre]

Storm 2K disclaimer: I'm not a professional and don't claim to be...

I believe that by tomorrow the NE will obviously be in play and possibly even as far south as the Carolinas (even S. Carolina/Georgia) Just watch Bill jog west for a while tonight as the ridge builds temporarily and you will see what I mean.

[MWatkins]

Dude, I did some pretty whack stuff back in college, you know...neuroscience with touches of quantum mechanics (the basic stuff isn't all that hard, actually) among other things.

I still don't understand what you've said after 3 rereadings. I can't pick out the meaning of the jargon from the context.

Sorry, it's easy to use all the meteorological jargon without explaining it. I'm just so used to it now that it's second nature. I'll just have MW translate for me every time I post something .

Ah ha! The first translation is free. Additional translations cost $2.99 each.

Just kidding, glad I could help out lol!

MW