ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
The Eye Wall wrote:WHOA!
At least it is nowhere near valid. SSD is more reasonable but a bit high still.
18/2345 UTC 17.1N 52.7W T6.0/6.0 BILL -- Atlantic
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weatherSnoop
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000
URNT15 KWBC 190208
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 37 20090819
015830 1710N 05311W 6951 02830 9596 +155 +129 176060 066 999 999 03
015900 1709N 05313W 6973 02794 9571 +173 +108 167047 049 999 999 03
015930 1709N 05315W 6972 02790 9558 +180 +095 162041 044 999 999 03
020000 1709N 05317W 6964 02793 9545 +187 +091 159031 033 999 999 03
020030 1708N 05319W 6967 02784 9538 +187 +092 160025 029 999 999 03
020100 1707N 05321W 6976 02763 9528 +188 +106 152017 018 999 999 03
020130 1706N 05323W 6965 02776 9516 +198 +100 181014 018 007 000 03
020200 1705N 05325W 6970 02772 9515 +205 +093 245009 010 999 999 03
020230 1706N 05327W 6970 02776 9530 +193 +099 305007 009 999 999 03
020300 1708N 05328W 6970 02781 9543 +182 +104 063005 008 999 999 03
020330 1709N 05329W 6970 02782 9545 +185 +085 078014 015 999 999 03
020400 1710N 05331W 6970 02789 9554 +182 +087 052014 015 999 999 03
020430 1710N 05333W 6975 02781 9560 +176 +093 021014 015 999 999 03
020500 1710N 05336W 6965 02803 9573 +169 +096 004019 021 999 999 03
020530 1710N 05338W 6968 02806 9587 +162 +097 353026 028 999 999 03
020600 1710N 05340W 6969 02809 9590 +164 +105 347032 037 999 999 03
020630 1710N 05342W 6987 02793 9601 +158 +126 351043 046 075 004 03
020700 1710N 05344W 6962 02832 9610 +152 +137 351051 056 077 004 03
020730 1710N 05346W 6956 02853 9657 +122 +122 359060 066 079 019 03
020800 1711N 05348W 6913 02937 9685 +125 +125 004077 081 068 036 03
URNT15 KWBC 190208
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 37 20090819
015830 1710N 05311W 6951 02830 9596 +155 +129 176060 066 999 999 03
015900 1709N 05313W 6973 02794 9571 +173 +108 167047 049 999 999 03
015930 1709N 05315W 6972 02790 9558 +180 +095 162041 044 999 999 03
020000 1709N 05317W 6964 02793 9545 +187 +091 159031 033 999 999 03
020030 1708N 05319W 6967 02784 9538 +187 +092 160025 029 999 999 03
020100 1707N 05321W 6976 02763 9528 +188 +106 152017 018 999 999 03
020130 1706N 05323W 6965 02776 9516 +198 +100 181014 018 007 000 03
020200 1705N 05325W 6970 02772 9515 +205 +093 245009 010 999 999 03
020230 1706N 05327W 6970 02776 9530 +193 +099 305007 009 999 999 03
020300 1708N 05328W 6970 02781 9543 +182 +104 063005 008 999 999 03
020330 1709N 05329W 6970 02782 9545 +185 +085 078014 015 999 999 03
020400 1710N 05331W 6970 02789 9554 +182 +087 052014 015 999 999 03
020430 1710N 05333W 6975 02781 9560 +176 +093 021014 015 999 999 03
020500 1710N 05336W 6965 02803 9573 +169 +096 004019 021 999 999 03
020530 1710N 05338W 6968 02806 9587 +162 +097 353026 028 999 999 03
020600 1710N 05340W 6969 02809 9590 +164 +105 347032 037 999 999 03
020630 1710N 05342W 6987 02793 9601 +158 +126 351043 046 075 004 03
020700 1710N 05344W 6962 02832 9610 +152 +137 351051 056 077 004 03
020730 1710N 05346W 6956 02853 9657 +122 +122 359060 066 079 019 03
020800 1711N 05348W 6913 02937 9685 +125 +125 004077 081 068 036 03
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superfly
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
The Eye Wall wrote:I think 125 mph is generous. I agree with Derek. The structure is ok, but has many flaws. Ragged eye, shear encrouching on the west side. Definitely a major, but not high end IMO. I literally drew a line, as shown, on the western flank. The structure is marginal at best. Also pointing out again, as said earlier, that it will soon start a more northerly course as being indicated by the clouds being pulled off to the north (the arrows). That's always a good indication of future direction. Bill should become very elongated eventually.
That's not shear on the west side, that's just Bill pushing up against the high to its northwest.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
Excellent look at the swell forecast from fnmoc ww3
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ww3_cgi/cgi-bin/ww3_loop.cgi?color=w&area=natl&prod=swl_wav_ht
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ww3_cgi/cgi-bin/ww3_loop.cgi?color=w&area=natl&prod=swl_wav_ht
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brunota2003
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The Eye Wall
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
superfly wrote:The Eye Wall wrote:I think 125 mph is generous. I agree with Derek. The structure is ok, but has many flaws. Ragged eye, shear encrouching on the west side. Definitely a major, but not high end IMO. I literally drew a line, as shown, on the western flank. The structure is marginal at best. Also pointing out again, as said earlier, that it will soon start a more northerly course as being indicated by the clouds being pulled off to the north (the arrows). That's always a good indication of future direction. Bill should become very elongated eventually.
That's not shear on the west side, that's just Bill pushing up against the high to its northwest.
Shear, High, Dry Air, Tomato, Tamato.
(just kidding)
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TCmet
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Re:
[quote="weatherSnoop"]000
URNT15 KWBC 190208
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 37 20090819
020200 1705N 05325W 6970 02772 9515 +205 +093 245009 010 999 999 03
extrap 951.5 is the lowest pressure reading so far.
Bill continues to undergo impressive RI.
URNT15 KWBC 190208
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 37 20090819
020200 1705N 05325W 6970 02772 9515 +205 +093 245009 010 999 999 03
extrap 951.5 is the lowest pressure reading so far.
Bill continues to undergo impressive RI.
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weatherSnoop
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000
URNT15 KWBC 190218
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 38 20090819
020830 1711N 05350W 6933 02942 9709 +134 +131 007078 079 081 026 03
020900 1711N 05353W 6954 02936 9742 +127 +127 012084 092 081 021 03
020930 1711N 05355W 6948 02964 9760 +127 +127 015092 094 999 999 03
021000 1711N 05357W 6948 02977 9792 +117 +116 016090 092 072 003 03
021030 1711N 05359W 6950 02993 9811 +116 +113 017093 095 067 005 03
021100 1711N 05402W 6938 03021 9824 +116 +116 017095 098 065 007 03
021130 1711N 05404W 6948 03024 9850 +111 +111 017088 091 063 009 03
021200 1711N 05406W 6968 03015 9871 +108 +108 015079 083 062 012 03
021230 1711N 05408W 6980 03015 9881 +114 +113 017074 076 061 011 03
021300 1711N 05411W 6909 03110 9884 +115 +111 013066 069 057 001 03
021330 1711N 05413W 6685 03393 9892 +099 +089 010063 065 999 999 03
021400 1711N 05415W 6497 03635 9899 +085 +077 010059 060 999 999 03
021430 1711N 05418W 6453 03700 9915 +077 +074 011058 059 999 999 03
021500 1711N 05420W 6453 03705 9916 +079 +074 009058 059 999 999 03
021530 1711N 05422W 6441 03725 9919 +080 +068 006056 058 050 003 03
021600 1711N 05424W 6437 03734 9931 +074 +073 002053 054 999 999 03
021630 1711N 05427W 6434 03745 9935 +075 +074 003052 052 999 999 03
021700 1711N 05429W 6435 03748 9942 +075 +069 006052 053 999 999 03
021730 1711N 05431W 6433 03755 9952 +071 +069 007049 051 999 999 03
021800 1711N 05433W 6436 03754 9956 +073 +052 009048 049 999 999 03
URNT15 KWBC 190218
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 38 20090819
020830 1711N 05350W 6933 02942 9709 +134 +131 007078 079 081 026 03
020900 1711N 05353W 6954 02936 9742 +127 +127 012084 092 081 021 03
020930 1711N 05355W 6948 02964 9760 +127 +127 015092 094 999 999 03
021000 1711N 05357W 6948 02977 9792 +117 +116 016090 092 072 003 03
021030 1711N 05359W 6950 02993 9811 +116 +113 017093 095 067 005 03
021100 1711N 05402W 6938 03021 9824 +116 +116 017095 098 065 007 03
021130 1711N 05404W 6948 03024 9850 +111 +111 017088 091 063 009 03
021200 1711N 05406W 6968 03015 9871 +108 +108 015079 083 062 012 03
021230 1711N 05408W 6980 03015 9881 +114 +113 017074 076 061 011 03
021300 1711N 05411W 6909 03110 9884 +115 +111 013066 069 057 001 03
021330 1711N 05413W 6685 03393 9892 +099 +089 010063 065 999 999 03
021400 1711N 05415W 6497 03635 9899 +085 +077 010059 060 999 999 03
021430 1711N 05418W 6453 03700 9915 +077 +074 011058 059 999 999 03
021500 1711N 05420W 6453 03705 9916 +079 +074 009058 059 999 999 03
021530 1711N 05422W 6441 03725 9919 +080 +068 006056 058 050 003 03
021600 1711N 05424W 6437 03734 9931 +074 +073 002053 054 999 999 03
021630 1711N 05427W 6434 03745 9935 +075 +074 003052 052 999 999 03
021700 1711N 05429W 6435 03748 9942 +075 +069 006052 053 999 999 03
021730 1711N 05431W 6433 03755 9952 +071 +069 007049 051 999 999 03
021800 1711N 05433W 6436 03754 9956 +073 +052 009048 049 999 999 03
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
sponger wrote:Excellent look at the swell forecast from fnmoc ww3
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ww3_cgi/cgi-bin/ww3_loop.cgi?color=w&area=natl&prod=swl_wav_ht
nice swell....i would like to watch it from the cliff walk that overlooks ruggles (newport , ri)
so far thou the alignment of the low level ridge isn't generating that much of a fetch toward the NW .....the best fetch has been alligned from NE-SW out in front of bill. but you will get something from bill's winds in saint auggie.
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weatherSnoop
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000
URNT15 KWBC 190228
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 39 20090819
021830 1711N 05436W 6434 03760 9956 +075 +048 008043 044 999 999 03
021900 1711N 05438W 6434 03762 9959 +076 +047 012043 044 999 999 03
021930 1711N 05440W 6434 03764 9962 +075 +051 014045 046 999 999 03
022000 1711N 05442W 6433 03770 9965 +075 +061 010048 050 999 999 03
022030 1711N 05445W 6432 03773 9975 +070 +057 007047 048 999 999 03
022100 1711N 05447W 6435 03769 9977 +069 +063 010047 047 999 999 03
022130 1711N 05449W 6433 03775 9983 +066 +065 015048 051 999 999 03
022200 1711N 05452W 6434 03780 9989 +066 +062 015046 046 999 999 03
022230 1711N 05454W 6434 03782 9996 +065 +055 015044 044 999 999 03
022300 1711N 05456W 6434 03783 0002 +062 +055 015044 045 999 999 03
022330 1711N 05459W 6434 03786 0009 +059 +059 016044 044 999 999 03
022400 1711N 05501W 6435 03787 0010 +060 +057 017041 042 999 999 03
022430 1711N 05503W 6435 03788 0014 +059 +056 019040 040 999 999 03
022500 1711N 05505W 6435 03790 0015 +060 +050 021042 043 999 999 03
022530 1711N 05508W 6435 03791 0021 +057 +051 023044 046 999 999 03
022600 1711N 05510W 6434 03794 0021 +059 +050 024045 046 999 999 03
022630 1711N 05512W 6432 03799 0017 +063 +046 020043 043 999 999 03
022700 1711N 05515W 6433 03801 0023 +062 +040 018042 043 999 999 03
022730 1711N 05517W 6433 03803 0027 +061 +039 016043 044 999 999 03
022800 1711N 05519W 6434 03804 0030 +060 +036 015045 046 999 999 03
URNT15 KWBC 190228
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 39 20090819
021830 1711N 05436W 6434 03760 9956 +075 +048 008043 044 999 999 03
021900 1711N 05438W 6434 03762 9959 +076 +047 012043 044 999 999 03
021930 1711N 05440W 6434 03764 9962 +075 +051 014045 046 999 999 03
022000 1711N 05442W 6433 03770 9965 +075 +061 010048 050 999 999 03
022030 1711N 05445W 6432 03773 9975 +070 +057 007047 048 999 999 03
022100 1711N 05447W 6435 03769 9977 +069 +063 010047 047 999 999 03
022130 1711N 05449W 6433 03775 9983 +066 +065 015048 051 999 999 03
022200 1711N 05452W 6434 03780 9989 +066 +062 015046 046 999 999 03
022230 1711N 05454W 6434 03782 9996 +065 +055 015044 044 999 999 03
022300 1711N 05456W 6434 03783 0002 +062 +055 015044 045 999 999 03
022330 1711N 05459W 6434 03786 0009 +059 +059 016044 044 999 999 03
022400 1711N 05501W 6435 03787 0010 +060 +057 017041 042 999 999 03
022430 1711N 05503W 6435 03788 0014 +059 +056 019040 040 999 999 03
022500 1711N 05505W 6435 03790 0015 +060 +050 021042 043 999 999 03
022530 1711N 05508W 6435 03791 0021 +057 +051 023044 046 999 999 03
022600 1711N 05510W 6434 03794 0021 +059 +050 024045 046 999 999 03
022630 1711N 05512W 6432 03799 0017 +063 +046 020043 043 999 999 03
022700 1711N 05515W 6433 03801 0023 +062 +040 018042 043 999 999 03
022730 1711N 05517W 6433 03803 0027 +061 +039 016043 044 999 999 03
022800 1711N 05519W 6434 03804 0030 +060 +036 015045 046 999 999 03
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Brent
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Advisories)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
...BILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES...
895 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 53.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0300 UTC WED AUG 19 2009
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 53.4W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 210SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 53.4W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 52.9W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.4N 55.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 75SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 175SE 100SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.8N 60.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 175SE 100SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.8N 62.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 175SE 100SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 160SE 100SW 175NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 35.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 42.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 53.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH
MISSION IN BILL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT BILL
HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND IS NOW A MAJOR
HURRICANE. HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 126 KT AT
700 MB...WITH THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952 MB AT 0202 UTC.
THE HIGHEST SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 100 KT. THE LATEST
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHILE UW CIMSS
OBJECTIVE ADVANCED DVORAK VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 7.0.
BLENDING THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT-LEVEL...SFMR...AND DROPSONDE WINDS
WITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...WHICH ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...MAY PRODUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...BILL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TAKING A TOLL. AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AROUND
96 HOURS...WITH A MORE DECIDED RATE OF WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 295/13...REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT
CHANGED. BILL IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD INTO A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHERE IT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.2N 53.4W 110 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 18.4N 55.4W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 20.0N 58.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 21.8N 60.5W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 23.8N 62.9W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 29.0N 67.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 35.0N 68.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 42.0N 64.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
...BILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES...
895 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 53.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0300 UTC WED AUG 19 2009
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 53.4W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 210SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 53.4W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 52.9W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.4N 55.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 75SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 175SE 100SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.8N 60.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 175SE 100SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.8N 62.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 175SE 100SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 160SE 100SW 175NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 35.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 42.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 53.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH
MISSION IN BILL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT BILL
HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND IS NOW A MAJOR
HURRICANE. HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 126 KT AT
700 MB...WITH THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952 MB AT 0202 UTC.
THE HIGHEST SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 100 KT. THE LATEST
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHILE UW CIMSS
OBJECTIVE ADVANCED DVORAK VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 7.0.
BLENDING THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT-LEVEL...SFMR...AND DROPSONDE WINDS
WITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...WHICH ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...MAY PRODUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...BILL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TAKING A TOLL. AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AROUND
96 HOURS...WITH A MORE DECIDED RATE OF WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 295/13...REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT
CHANGED. BILL IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD INTO A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHERE IT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.2N 53.4W 110 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 18.4N 55.4W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 20.0N 58.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 21.8N 60.5W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 23.8N 62.9W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 29.0N 67.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 35.0N 68.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 42.0N 64.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
0 likes
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
cpdaman wrote:sponger wrote:Excellent look at the swell forecast from fnmoc ww3
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ww3_cgi/cgi-bin/ww3_loop.cgi?color=w&area=natl&prod=swl_wav_ht
nice swell....i would like to watch it from the cliff walk that overlooks ruggles (newport , ri)
so far thou the alignment of the low level ridge isn't generating that much of a fetch toward the NW .....the best fetch has been alligned from NE-SW out in front of bill. but you will get something from bill's winds in saint auggie.
Absolutely! With his fast forward speed our winds should switch offshore on Sat leaving glassy overhead swell well into Sunday! I have surfed Narragansett In RI and found it to be a good break!
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weatherSnoop
- S2K Supporter
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000
URNT12 KWBC 190226
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/0203Z
B. 17 DEG 8 MIN N
53 DEG 28 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2744 M
D. 85 KT
E. 081 DEG 26 NM
F. 169 DEG 127 KT
G. 083 DEG 29 NM
H. 958 MB
I. 12 C/3058 M
J. 21 C/3045 M
K. 8 C/NA
L. OPEN S
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 OB 16
MAX FL WIND 127 KTS E QUAD 0155Z
URNT12 KWBC 190226
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/0203Z
B. 17 DEG 8 MIN N
53 DEG 28 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2744 M
D. 85 KT
E. 081 DEG 26 NM
F. 169 DEG 127 KT
G. 083 DEG 29 NM
H. 958 MB
I. 12 C/3058 M
J. 21 C/3045 M
K. 8 C/NA
L. OPEN S
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 OB 16
MAX FL WIND 127 KTS E QUAD 0155Z
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-
The Eye Wall
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
I think I just got the updated track here at work. Our system updates quickly. It appears, to me, that the cone has been shifted ever so slightly east...nicking Cape Cod. Please don't hold me to that.
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