ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#2421 Postby Macrocane » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:42 pm

:eek: It's not just a cat 3 but a strong one.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#2422 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:43 pm

Another best track update bumping the winds to 110 kts.

AL, 03, 2009081900, , BEST, 0, 169N, 528W, 110, 958, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
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#2423 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:47 pm

URNT15 KWBC 190038
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 28 20090819
002830 1624N 05246W 6954 03059 9895 +115 +093 230063 065 052 000 03
002900 1623N 05245W 6957 03064 9906 +114 +088 229061 062 048 000 03
002930 1621N 05244W 6955 03073 9914 +113 +091 227061 062 047 000 03
003000 1619N 05243W 6956 03076 9925 +108 +096 229060 061 999 999 03
003030 1618N 05242W 6957 03081 9924 +114 +091 230061 062 999 999 03
003100 1616N 05241W 6957 03085 9932 +112 +094 231057 058 999 999 03
003130 1614N 05240W 6955 03091 9939 +109 +094 234056 056 999 999 03
003200 1613N 05239W 6953 03100 9945 +108 +097 235057 057 999 999 03
003230 1611N 05238W 6954 03104 9953 +106 +102 236056 058 999 999 03
003300 1609N 05237W 6953 03109 9954 +111 +095 231054 054 999 999 03
003330 1607N 05236W 6957 03107 9965 +104 +096 229053 053 999 999 03
003400 1606N 05235W 6955 03112 9969 +103 +098 228053 053 999 999 03
003430 1604N 05234W 6956 03113 9969 +106 +096 230053 053 999 999 03
003500 1602N 05233W 6955 03118 9972 +104 +101 231052 052 999 999 03
003530 1601N 05232W 6944 03134 9976 +102 +102 231050 051 999 999 03
003600 1559N 05231W 6946 03131 9989 +093 +093 232046 049 058 028 03
003630 1557N 05230W 6965 03109 9987 +095 +095 227043 045 050 012 03
003700 1555N 05229W 6906 03192 9991 +096 +095 223044 044 999 999 03
003730 1554N 05228W 6729 03409 9991 +088 +085 225043 044 999 999 03
003800 1552N 05227W 6572 03607 9991 +079 +069 226042 042 999 999 03
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#2424 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:47 pm

Macrocane wrote::eek: It's not just a cat 3 but a strong one.


Thankfully Bill is not thought to be a threat to any island, or the CONUS to Canadian Maritimes at least directly....for now.
I hope that Bill is not one of those 'canes that does things it's way.
Just saying not -removed- at all.
Last edited by jaxfladude on Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

#2425 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:48 pm

we're going 100KT
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#2426 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:48 pm

Wow thats quite a big upgrade at that, up 15kts, certainly higher then I thought they would go.

Ah well first 'major' hurricane of the season!
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Re:

#2427 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:51 pm

KWT wrote:Wow thats quite a big upgrade at that, up 15kts, certainly higher then I thought they would go.

Ah well first 'major' hurricane of the season!


I was expecting either 100 or 105 kt. I guess they think the SFMR data was suspect?
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Re:

#2428 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:52 pm

KWT wrote:Wow thats quite a big upgrade at that, up 15kts, certainly higher then I thought they would go.

Ah well first 'major' hurricane of the season!


And may it be the only one.
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#2429 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:52 pm

Yeah I was thinking probably 100kts like Derek but to go that high, indeed they must be thinking something is suspect and going with the FL data instead.
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#2430 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:54 pm

URNT15 KWBC 190048
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 29 20090819
003830 1550N 05226W 6446 03771 9995 +068 +067 230041 041 999 999 03
003900 1549N 05224W 6430 03790 0004 +062 +062 223043 047 999 999 03
003930 1547N 05223W 6438 03784 0009 +062 +060 212048 049 999 999 03
004000 1545N 05223W 6416 03815 0010 +062 +056 203050 051 999 999 03
004030 1544N 05222W 6433 03797 0017 +060 +060 208050 051 999 999 03
004100 1542N 05221W 6418 03818 0019 +060 +059 207050 052 999 999 03
004130 1540N 05220W 6427 03806 0022 +058 +058 207049 050 999 999 03
004200 1539N 05218W 6425 03811 0024 +058 +057 206051 052 999 999 03
004230 1537N 05217W 6429 03807 0020 +063 +051 204049 050 999 999 03
004300 1535N 05216W 6428 03810 0019 +065 +047 202051 052 999 999 03
004330 1534N 05215W 6428 03812 0020 +066 +047 199051 052 041 005 03
004400 1532N 05215W 6428 03814 0020 +068 +049 204052 054 999 999 03
004430 1530N 05214W 6427 03818 0016 +072 +045 202052 053 999 999 03
004500 1529N 05213W 6429 03817 0016 +073 +049 202050 050 999 999 03
004530 1527N 05212W 6429 03819 0017 +073 +052 201050 051 999 999 03
004600 1526N 05211W 6428 03821 0024 +070 +051 203052 053 999 999 03
004630 1524N 05210W 6428 03823 0030 +068 +048 200051 052 999 999 03
004700 1522N 05209W 6428 03825 0029 +071 +040 198049 050 999 999 03
004730 1521N 05208W 6429 03827 0029 +073 +032 199048 048 999 999 03
004800 1519N 05207W 6429 03828 0030 +073 +036 200047 047 999 999 03
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Re: ATL : BILL (03L) Recon Thread

#2431 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:56 pm

Thanks to all who work hard to provide the data.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#2432 Postby sevenleft » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:56 pm

I don't think 110 knots is unreasonable. The SFMR hit 99 (100?) knots in the NW quad, with flight level winds over 120 knots. Given the satellite presentation, 110 knots is believable. We'll see what the NE eyewall looks like on the next pass.
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#2433 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:56 pm

My name is BIG BILL, i'm a cat 3 cane...crossing far away from the Leewards Islands :)
Image
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#2434 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:58 pm

Notice despite the winds increasing that the pressure hasn't fallen a whole lot - from 962mb this afternoon to somewhere between 954 and 958mb now.
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#2435 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:00 pm

125mph is seems quite a bit generous to me. I agree with Ortt on this one with 115mph, but still a Category 3 Major Hurricane.
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Re: ATL : BILL (03L) Recon Thread

#2436 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:00 pm

New dropsonde has a MBL wind of 123kts. It says "dropped in eye", but it appears to be really in the NW eyewall.

Code: Select all

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 00:27Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Bill2
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 09

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 19th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 17.3N 53.2W
Location: 517 miles (833 km) between the NE and ENE (56°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 042 (About)


Level
Geo. Height
Air Temp.
Dew Point
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
968mb (28.59 inHg)
Sea Level (Surface)
25.2°C (77.4°F)
25.2°C (77.4°F)
5° (from the N)
96 knots (110 mph)
1000mb
-290m (-951 ft)
Other data not available.
925mb
396m (1,299 ft)
22.4°C (72.3°F)
22.4°C (72.3°F)
20° (from the NNE)
133 knots (153 mph)
850mb
1,132m (3,714 ft)
19.4°C (66.9°F)
19.4°C (66.9°F)
45° (from the NE)
131 knots (151 mph)
700mb
2,796m (9,173 ft)
13.8°C (56.8°F)
13.8°C (56.8°F)
85° (from the E)
75 knots (86 mph)


Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:14Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Release Location: 17.26N 53.22W
Release Time: 0:14:15Z

Splash Location: 17.17N 53.33W
Splash Time: 0:18:55Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 15° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 123 knots (142 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 108 knots (124 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 684mb to 966mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 161 gpm - 11 gpm (528 geo. feet - 36 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 5° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 108 knots (124 mph)

Height of the last reported wind: 11 geopotential meters

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level
Air Temperature
Dew Point
968mb (Surface)
25.2°C (77.4°F)
25.2°C (77.4°F)
958mb
24.2°C (75.6°F)
24.2°C (75.6°F)
905mb
21.4°C (70.5°F)
21.4°C (70.5°F)
727mb
15.0°C (59.0°F)
15.0°C (59.0°F)
709mb
14.2°C (57.6°F)
14.1°C (57.4°F)
684mb
12.4°C (54.3°F)
12.4°C (54.3°F)



Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
968mb (Surface)
5° (from the N)
96 knots (110 mph)
961mb
5° (from the N)
108 knots (124 mph)
950mb
10° (from the N)
115 knots (132 mph)
939mb
20° (from the NNE)
134 knots (154 mph)
925mb
20° (from the NNE)
133 knots (153 mph)
919mb
20° (from the NNE)
141 knots (162 mph)
910mb
25° (from the NNE)
133 knots (153 mph)
902mb
20° (from the NNE)
141 knots (162 mph)
893mb
25° (from the NNE)
123 knots (142 mph)
890mb
25° (from the NNE)
125 knots (144 mph)
885mb
25° (from the NNE)
138 knots (159 mph)
883mb
25° (from the NNE)
140 knots (161 mph)
875mb
35° (from the NE)
132 knots (152 mph)
869mb
40° (from the NE)
132 knots (152 mph)
862mb
40° (from the NE)
119 knots (137 mph)
856mb
45° (from the NE)
130 knots (150 mph)
828mb
50° (from the NE)
149 knots (171 mph)
818mb
50° (from the NE)
126 knots (145 mph)
810mb
60° (from the ENE)
140 knots (161 mph)
684mb
75° (from the ENE)
71 knots (82 mph)

The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.
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#2437 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:00 pm

I'd guess given the extrap of about 954mbs and the strength of the system the lower range of that estimate is most likely. Still its not quite as low as I thought it would be.

Despite that I think we are now seeing some faster strengthening, IR looking near perfect bar the NW quad so I think category-4 is only a matter of time.
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#2438 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:01 pm

Dropsonde: 123 kt at the mean boundary layer (supports 105 kt). Pressure was 968mb with that drop, so 956mb appears to be the best actual pressure estimate so far.

I'd go 105 kt for the intensity after seeing that drop.
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#2439 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:03 pm

URNT15 KWBC 190058
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 30 20090819
004830 1517N 05206W 6429 03829 0031 +073 +037 200045 046 999 999 03
004900 1516N 05205W 6427 03833 0034 +072 +037 201045 045 999 999 03
004930 1514N 05204W 6427 03835 0040 +070 +039 204044 044 999 999 03
005000 1512N 05203W 6428 03836 0042 +069 +037 204043 043 999 999 03
005030 1511N 05202W 6428 03837 0045 +069 +034 202041 042 999 999 03
005100 1509N 05201W 6429 03837 0048 +068 +035 200039 040 999 999 03
005130 1507N 05200W 6427 03840 0052 +066 +034 199039 039 999 999 03
005200 1505N 05159W 6428 03840 0056 +065 +034 199038 038 999 999 03
005230 1504N 05158W 6428 03841 0054 +066 +032 202039 040 999 999 03
005300 1502N 05157W 6428 03842 0055 +066 +036 202040 040 999 999 03
005330 1500N 05156W 6430 03840 0059 +063 +040 200040 042 999 999 03
005400 1459N 05155W 6429 03841 0059 +064 +038 201041 042 999 999 03
005430 1457N 05154W 6428 03842 0057 +064 +046 202039 041 999 999 03
005500 1455N 05153W 6424 03848 0051 +066 +064 201037 039 999 999 03
005530 1453N 05152W 6431 03841 0052 +068 +049 207036 038 999 999 03
005600 1452N 05151W 6419 03855 0047 +069 +063 205033 036 999 999 03
005630 1450N 05150W 6432 03841 0061 +064 +041 211037 039 999 999 03
005700 1449N 05148W 6430 03842 0057 +068 +020 207040 040 999 999 03
005730 1449N 05146W 6431 03841 0056 +070 +009 205040 041 999 999 03
005800 1451N 05145W 6430 03843 0058 +070 +006 204042 042 999 999 03

Someone else take over for now.
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#2440 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:06 pm

Yeah 105 seems pretty reasonable. It probably won't matter much anyway because this one looks like its strengthening so 110kts should be reasonable soon enough I'd imagine.
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