ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

So your guess would be hold Bill at 95kts then Derek?

[Derek Ortt]

I may even hold it at 90KT for the evening nwhhc forecast. waiting for some more data before making my decision

[Cyclenall]

Have you never heard of a governer of a car? It keeps or LIMITS the speeds below a certain limit???

I have never heard of it . I was thinking of the "govern" that is used for overseeing.

[wxman57]

interesting that the new ECMWF is much closer to the NE U.S. than before, just grazing Cape Cod and Maine. Canadian is similar. Now the GFS is the far right model.

[Thunder44]

Turning around to the SE for another pass

000
URNT15 KWBC 182348
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 23 20090818
233830 1903N 05358W 6429 03842 0059 +064 +035 082053 054 034 000 03
233900 1903N 05400W 6431 03840 0060 +064 +033 081051 052 031 000 03
233930 1903N 05403W 6429 03841 0061 +063 +035 082050 050 033 000 03
234000 1904N 05406W 6429 03842 0058 +065 +037 082051 052 999 999 03
234030 1904N 05409W 6431 03840 0056 +067 +032 083051 052 999 999 03
234100 1904N 05411W 6429 03843 0055 +069 +030 082050 051 030 000 03
234130 1904N 05414W 6429 03843 0052 +071 +024 083052 052 999 999 03
234200 1904N 05417W 6431 03839 0050 +071 +022 082050 051 999 999 03
234230 1902N 05419W 6430 03839 0053 +069 +028 080048 049 999 999 03
234300 1900N 05418W 6432 03837 0058 +065 +034 079046 047 999 999 03
234330 1858N 05417W 6430 03839 0061 +062 +039 075048 049 999 999 03
234400 1856N 05416W 6430 03839 0064 +059 +037 075051 052 999 999 03
234430 1854N 05415W 6430 03838 0064 +059 +035 073052 053 999 999 03
234500 1852N 05414W 6431 03835 0060 +060 +035 071053 053 999 999 03
234530 1851N 05413W 6429 03836 0059 +061 +028 076052 052 999 999 03
234600 1849N 05412W 6431 03833 0058 +061 +029 078052 053 030 000 00
234630 1847N 05411W 6430 03832 0055 +062 +029 077051 052 999 999 03
234700 1845N 05409W 6432 03829 0052 +063 +025 077050 051 032 000 03
234730 1843N 05408W 6432 03827 0050 +064 +028 075049 049 999 999 03
234800 1842N 05407W 6431 03826 0050 +062 +033 075048 048 999 999 03

[CrazyC83]

121 kt translated to 109 kt at the surface. The SFMR was 90 kt at its highest. I'd blend them to an intensity of 100 kt.

[CrazyC83]

The ADT has gone way off the deep end tonight - thinks it is a high-end Cat 4 (almost Cat 5), when it obviously isn't:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2009 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 16:57:36 N Lon : 52:29:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 928.8mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.8 7.0 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +10.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Derek Ortt]

you cannot blend flight level data with surface data!

if you did that, Isabel would have been a cat 3 at landfall!

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 182358
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 24 20090818
234830 1840N 05406W 6433 03823 0049 +060 +041 073046 047 999 999 03
234900 1838N 05405W 6432 03823 0050 +058 +045 072048 050 037 000 03
234930 1837N 05404W 6430 03823 0045 +060 +046 071054 055 037 000 03
235000 1835N 05403W 6430 03823 0046 +059 +052 076053 055 039 000 03
235030 1833N 05402W 6430 03821 0039 +061 +053 078054 055 039 001 03
235100 1832N 05401W 6432 03816 0039 +059 +058 081054 055 043 001 03
235130 1830N 05359W 6432 03814 0032 +062 +058 084053 054 043 002 00
235200 1828N 05358W 6432 03813 0025 +065 +059 079057 059 999 999 03
235230 1827N 05357W 6400 03852 0028 +058 +058 069054 056 049 017 03
235300 1825N 05356W 6368 03888 0026 +057 +057 078059 062 050 010 00
235330 1823N 05355W 6389 03862 0033 +054 +053 075063 064 046 006 03
235400 1821N 05354W 6402 03845 0021 +063 +037 076064 065 041 000 03
235430 1820N 05353W 6408 03835 0036 +053 +039 074066 067 999 999 03
235500 1818N 05352W 6422 03815 0030 +056 +042 073068 069 999 999 03
235530 1816N 05351W 6421 03812 0023 +056 +054 071068 069 999 999 03
235600 1815N 05350W 6420 03810 0027 +052 +045 075065 066 999 999 03
235630 1813N 05349W 6420 03807 0022 +055 +037 079065 067 041 000 03
235700 1811N 05348W 6420 03805 0021 +052 +042 080066 068 039 000 03
235730 1810N 05347W 6422 03799 0021 +049 +044 079066 067 999 999 03
235800 1808N 05346W 6422 03796 0010 +055 +047 080064 064 041 000 03

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 190008
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 25 20090818
235830 1807N 05344W 6421 03795 9998 +060 +053 079061 063 999 999 03
235900 1805N 05343W 6420 03792 0002 +055 +055 078062 065 045 001 03
235930 1803N 05342W 6444 03763 9990 +062 +062 078066 067 999 999 03
000000 1802N 05341W 6565 03606 9978 +078 +073 077066 069 999 999 03
000030 1800N 05340W 6697 03436 9974 +089 +079 080070 071 999 999 03
000100 1759N 05339W 6866 03226 9980 +096 +082 076077 080 999 999 03
000130 1757N 05338W 6955 03116 9979 +098 +094 071078 081 050 007 03
000200 1755N 05337W 6958 03107 9974 +100 +088 073072 074 999 999 03
000230 1754N 05336W 6958 03104 9963 +106 +084 073076 077 999 999 03
000300 1752N 05335W 6957 03102 9962 +104 +087 074078 078 999 999 03
000330 1751N 05334W 6960 03096 9957 +105 +088 073077 078 999 999 03
000400 1749N 05333W 6958 03094 9951 +105 +098 069076 078 999 999 03
000430 1748N 05332W 6960 03087 9947 +103 +099 069074 076 999 999 03
000500 1746N 05331W 6959 03084 9945 +102 +098 068074 075 056 001 00
000530 1745N 05329W 6959 03079 9935 +104 +104 067076 076 058 006 00
000600 1743N 05328W 6958 03073 9920 +110 +108 064076 078 058 005 00
000630 1741N 05327W 6959 03068 9916 +109 +108 065077 078 058 007 03
000700 1740N 05326W 6956 03065 9911 +107 +105 065083 086 060 009 00
000730 1738N 05325W 6962 03047 9899 +109 +109 068085 088 060 011 03
000800 1736N 05324W 6966 03038 9891 +108 +108 070090 091 064 012 03

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 190018
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 26 20090819
000830 1735N 05323W 6949 03049 9882 +106 +106 073095 096 065 011 03
000900 1733N 05322W 6948 03040 9869 +110 +110 073094 095 066 009 03
000930 1731N 05321W 6964 03015 9862 +110 +109 070094 095 067 007 00
001000 1730N 05321W 6954 03016 9855 +106 +106 067101 104 071 008 03
001030 1728N 05320W 6957 03000 9843 +104 +104 067106 108 071 006 03
001100 1726N 05319W 6979 02957 9825 +106 +106 067106 107 074 003 00
001130 1725N 05318W 6981 02942 9804 +111 +111 065108 109 076 013 00
001200 1723N 05317W 6945 02971 9782 +113 +112 063111 112 082 024 03
001230 1721N 05316W 6960 02933 9761 +112 +112 058115 120 087 043 03
001300 1720N 05315W 6927 02935 9733 +100 +100 067118 121 094 050 03
001330 1718N 05314W 6883 02967 9690 +109 +109 075106 110 099 043 03
001400 1716N 05314W 6835 03010 9659 +119 +119 080083 089 099 021 00
001430 1715N 05313W 6876 02947 9642 +125 +125 075065 068 099 012 03
001500 1713N 05312W 6922 02879 9629 +132 +132 063058 061 094 012 00
001530 1711N 05311W 6967 02816 9608 +147 +123 060052 056 058 002 03
001600 1709N 05310W 6962 02812 9588 +160 +102 059045 047 053 001 03
001630 1707N 05309W 6962 02804 9578 +162 +096 061037 040 043 000 03
001700 1705N 05308W 6963 02798 9571 +163 +096 070025 028 999 999 03
001730 1703N 05307W 6963 02796 9564 +167 +094 083021 022 999 999 03
001800 1701N 05307W 6961 02793 9557 +170 +094 076012 016 999 999 03

121 kt FL, 99 kt SFMR, 956mb and falling.

[CrazyC83]

Undisputed Cat 3 now - latest SFMR supports 100 kt.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track=100 kts

No surprise the upgrade from best track to cat 3.Official at 11 PM advisory.

AL, 03, 2009081900, , BEST, 0, 169N, 528W, 100, 960, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cpdaman]

looks like a cat 3

movement appears to be bending now back toward wnw from a wnw/nw heading earlier

is bill's movement suppose to slow down or speed up

[Thunder44]

you cannot blend flight level data with surface data!

if you did that, Isabel would have been a cat 3 at landfall!

But that's what NHC see did to get 95kts, for their last advisory. They obviously don't want to soley rely on the SFMR.

[CrazyC83]

you cannot blend flight level data with surface data!

if you did that, Isabel would have been a cat 3 at landfall!

But that's what NHC see did to get 95kts, for their last advisory. They obviously don't want to soley rely on the SFMR.

A lot of the SFMR readings have been flagged too. But even the reliable SFMR readings now support Cat 3 (100 kt). 110 kt (what the FL winds support) might be pushing it though.

In the case of Isabel, it made more sense since it was a broad, relatively shallow storm at landfall.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track=100 kts

No surprise the upgrade from best track to cat 3.Official at 11 PM advisory.

AL, 03, 2009081900, , BEST, 0, 169N, 528W, 100, 960, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

Quoting myself as it was the last post of the previous page.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 190028
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 27 20090819
001830 1659N 05307W 6962 02789 9546 +179 +089 067009 010 999 999 03
001900 1657N 05306W 6960 02790 9541 +184 +085 053005 008 999 999 03
001930 1655N 05305W 6964 02787 9545 +181 +086 058002 003 010 000 03
002000 1654N 05303W 6960 02790 9542 +182 +097 271006 009 008 000 03
002030 1652N 05302W 6964 02789 9535 +190 +102 260015 018 999 999 03
002100 1650N 05301W 6964 02796 9542 +192 +107 259030 038 999 999 03
002130 1648N 05300W 6962 02812 9558 +192 +105 258058 065 050 000 03
002200 1646N 05259W 6968 02829 9607 +167 +116 256075 078 063 000 03
002230 1644N 05258W 6958 02868 9625 +174 +111 256083 086 068 000 03
002300 1642N 05257W 6958 02896 9644 +186 +096 245081 083 079 000 03
002330 1641N 05256W 6969 02899 9688 +164 +099 234088 090 078 000 03
002400 1639N 05255W 6967 02921 9730 +143 +112 230084 085 075 000 03
002430 1637N 05254W 6962 02947 9764 +129 +124 231083 084 071 004 00
002500 1636N 05253W 6954 02979 9783 +131 +125 231084 086 071 005 00
002530 1634N 05252W 6957 02991 9804 +131 +111 231084 084 067 003 03
002600 1633N 05251W 6963 02998 9824 +126 +105 232081 082 063 003 03
002630 1631N 05250W 6979 02989 9837 +127 +102 230079 081 060 002 00
002700 1629N 05249W 6950 03034 9850 +125 +095 228075 076 058 000 00
002730 1628N 05248W 6956 03036 9861 +124 +094 229069 071 054 000 03
002800 1626N 05247W 6953 03051 9877 +121 +085 229067 068 054 000 03

Pressure 954mb.

[OuterBanker]

Yep, 8:30 update declared it a cat three.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 190030
TCUAT3
HURRICANE BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
830 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT BILL HAS
STRENGTHENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR. BILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0030.shtml