WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the list of the Super-Typhoons that occured in the history of the WPAC on November?

[CrazyC83]

I'd need to really research that, but I don't think it is all that uncommon and even in December there have been monsters (like Paka in 1997).

[cycloneye]

JMA 18:40 UTC Warning - 115 KTS - 905 Mbs

TY 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 25 November 2009
<Analyses at 25/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N13°35'(13.6°)
E141°25'(141.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Intense
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E139°30'(139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Intense
Center position of probability circle N18°00'(18.0°)
E139°00'(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E138°50'(138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 460km(250NM)

[Crostorm]

Does anyone has the list of the Super-Typhoons that occured in the history of the WPAC on November?

2003-11-18 12:00:00 UTC Typhoon Lupit Minimum Pressure 915 (hPa)Maximum Wind 100 (knots)



1983-11-01 00:00:00 UTC Typhoon Marge 895 (hPa) 110 (knots)
December
2001-12-16 18:00:00 UTC Typhoon FAXAI 915 (hPa) 105(knots)
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/dt/se ... np&mtype=s

Here is the list off all typhoon in november
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/dt/se ... np&mtype=s

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 183200 UTC
Lat : 13:48:57 N Lon : 141:13:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.8 / 869.6mb/164.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.7 7.7 7.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +18.6C Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 160 knots

[RattleMan]

Code: Select all

26W       NIDA 091125 1800  13.6N  141.4E WPAC  160   903

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a 7.5+ to me. CDO not quite symmetric enough for the perfect 8.0

[P.K.]

Remember JTWC is not official. JMA currently have this at 115kts (10 min average) which equals TY Jangmi last year. Jangmi had recon fly into it and if I remember rightly 125kt equivalent surface winds (10 min) were record. P.K please correct me if I'm wrong.

Done a quick check and it was 159kt FL which is about 125kts (Ten min mean) surface.

[RattleMan]

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 141.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 141.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.7N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.5N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.5N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.4N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.8N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.8N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 141.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST OF
GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS STY 26W HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-
DEFINED, SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION SHOWING A
WELL-DEFINED 20-NM EYE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 160 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FIX OF T7.5 FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES AN AREA OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72, IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST
THE RIDGE AXIS AN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH THE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF UKMET AND JGSM. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A
DRASTIC DEVIATION TO THE THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE TOWARDS THE
PHILIPPINES AFTER TAU 24. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS
45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//

[Aslkahuna]

Typhoons with 1 minute winds of 130kt or greater which is the criterion for a Super according to JTWC are actually not at all uncommon-in fact, Guam's worse ever typhoon was STY Karen in November 1962. STY June at 875 mb was a late November storm as was STY Gay (BTW on that list should be noted that pressures indicated for years after 1990 are only estimates). Paka as noted was a December storm which actually originated in Cenpac (it was with Paka that JTWC realized that winter STYs tend to have higher pressures due to higher ambient pressures). The all time most famous December STY was Bull Halsey's storm in 1944 which mauled the US Fleet. Another BTW, it is not true that all JTWC personnel are military-there are a number of Civilian Mets as well and JT is located close to the University of Hawaii which (obviously) has a good Trop Met section. JT has been working with the University since at least 1966.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Typhoons with 1 minute winds of 130kt or greater which is the criterion for a Super according to JTWC are actually not at all uncommon-in fact, Guam's worse ever typhoon was STY Karen in November 1962. STY June at 875 mb was a late November storm as was STY Gay (BTW on that list should be noted that pressures indicated for years after 1990 are only estimates). Paka as noted was a December storm which actually originated in Cenpac (it was with Paka that JTWC realized that winter STYs tend to have higher pressures due to higher ambient pressures). The all time most famous December STY was Bull Halsey's storm in 1944 which mauled the US Fleet. Another BTW, it is not true that all JTWC personnel are military-there are a number of Civilian Mets as well and JT is located close to the University of Hawaii which (obviously) has a good Trop Met section. JT has been working with the University since at least 1966.

Steve

Thanks Steve for the answer to my November question and a little more info there.

[CrazyC83]

Last storm ANYWHERE to have 160 kt (1-min) winds was Hurricane Wilma. I think it peaked at 165 kt (at 1200 through 1800Z) as it looked even better than anything we have seen this year. It has probably weakened a bit since, so 155 kt would be my guess for the current intensity.

It was likely nowhere near Tip pressure-wise though - ambient pressure in the area is higher than normal and it isn't a huge storm. Probably in the 885-895mb range. In fact, in terms of central pressure, Melor might have been higher even if the winds weren't as strong.

[Crostorm]

[CrazyC83]

25/2032 UTC 14.0N 141.0E T7.0/7.5 NIDA -- West Pacific

Starting to come down, but still exceptionally intense.

[JTE50]

Just back from checking out the surf on the west side of Guam. The offshore wind just flattened any swells generated from Nida. There is a small break left but I thought there would be more than what we have. The sun is peaking out. So the max wind was 185 mph 1 min. average???

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

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[Crostorm]

[oaba09]

160 kts 1 minute average and 125 kts 10 minute average....wow.....amazing system...