ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Stormcenter]

As of now I'll go on the record as saying I'm not impressed with
what I'm seeing right now from 90L. It still has a lot a work to do.

High resolution visible loop (12-19z)

Big file 3,7Mb, click to visualize

[KWT]

Stormcenter, it looks a lot like one of those big fat WPAC systems. I think the TCFA was a bit early myself and I'd have personally kept it at code orange for a little longer but it is slowly developing.

If it does develop a burst over the center that is deep then it'll very easily become a TD but till that happens it still probably needs another 18-24hrs yet IMO.

[wxman57]

I really dont get the TCFA being issued so early..Especially with its current structure..

It's mostly objective, based on a number of criteria. Check out the variables here:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm

[Derek Ortt]

One major problem it is having is that the convergence is not focused at the low center, it is focused south of the low center

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 7conv.html

probably no TD until Saturday at the earliest

[Ivanhater]

GFS doesn't start to wrap this up for another couple of days anyways. Seems to be following the models right now.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that the wave over Africa behind 90L is starting to catch up with 90L. On the vis loop, you can clearly see convergence and resulting blowup of storms as the NE flow from the wave collides with the S and SE flow around 90L. Wonder if this will help or disrupt organization?

[Stormcenter]

Here's the lastest GFS crystal ball view.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

[Recurve]

Hmmm. Something fairly big hits New England? And it has a pardner.

[KWT]

Does that also mean its not going to feel the weakness as much in about 60hrs time if its weaker then some of the guidence is expecting?

Also that convergence would explain why the system is struggling, thats another thing I've noticed often with big broad WPAC systems as well. From this point they usually take about 36hrs to get going, as I said I wouldn't have gone code red just yet myself but there ya go!

So a slow developer next couple of days, stronger development towards the back end of the weekend...plenty of time for this baby to explode yet anyway.

[Sanibel]

I noticed that too Emmett. It's butting up against 90L.


If they both formed close together it would drive 90L further south and west.

[Wx_Warrior]

I think you posted 12z....18z running now, which you probably take with another grain of salt.

[KWT]

Another Ne Caribbean run it seems, GFS very consistant about this and the other models bar ECM are all very close to the GFS runs.

Of course for the region even 100 miles to the north would mka e a huge difference.

The key appears to be how much northerly latitude the trough digging down into the northern Atlantic can produce between 72-96hrs. The stronger the system is the greater the chances of it getting picked up quite a lot. The ECM makes quite a strong feature out of that upper feature whilst the GFS much less so, with the rest inbetween those two.

Looks like a strong hurricane again as well...

[cycloneye]

Here is another GFS run of NE Caribbean hit.

[PTrackerLA]

Not good for the islands, I don't like the looks of that steering flow either.

[Sanibel]

I might be GFDL-casting but GFDL was accurate last year with these CV long-trackers. Right now it looks Florida-bound in a classic north of Antilles straight run. But, once again, using models before the system even develops is foolish. I've been worried about an Ike that doesn't take the anomalous south dip.

[Wx_Warrior]

6z and 18z runs I never get too excited over. They (long trackers) have been bunk for years. 0z 12z & EURO.

[KWT]

To be fair though the GFS model has been very consistant with regards with each run, the ECM has been shifting about more though to be fair the last 3 runs have been broadly similar, one of them will be wrong.

A big hit for PR this run, in the northern eyewall of probably a major I'd guess...

[Brent]

Yikes, looks like an extremely major hurricane right over PR:

[cycloneye]

If that occurs,I may be absent from storm2k for many weeks.

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW 18z GFS