ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[weatherSnoop]

Guess there are communication troubles with AF 303

[KWT]

By the way would recon still fly when this system gets further NW closer to the east coast and Canada?

Anyway NHC map pretty much confirms this could be quite a big danger to far eastern Canada, esp if it turns NE just before it makes landfall, then it'd rake much more land that way.

I wonder if Canada would fly the storm then

I haven't a got a clue, I guess they could do if the threat was deemed big enough. A cat-1/2 hitting Canada certainly could be one such instance, lets hope this doesn't hit as hard as Juan did!

[caribepr]

Thank you, god of weather. How silly of me to imagine that science isn't always perfectly on target, despite professionals graciously saying the same. Until it is where all the models (that, hate to mention this in case it shatters your world) say it will go, we here in the islands keep a close watch. Because...THAT is how we live. Have a lovely, safe, live by the models evening.

If the storm veers to the west and hits the islands it would be nothing less than a bust of epic proportions. Personally I have more faith in the NHC than that. Of course you should keep watch but don't you think you're overreacting? I mean for the love of god all he said was "I'm surprised they're doing recon for it". It's not like he was wishing death upon everyone in the Caribbean which is essentially what you're acting like he's saying.

check your pm's

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182118
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 08 20090818
210830 1420N 05431W 6264 04043 0035 +057 +020 304019 020 006 000 00
210900 1420N 05429W 6356 03922 0038 +063 +027 310018 019 005 000 00
210930 1421N 05427W 6414 03845 0036 +069 +031 316020 021 005 000 00
211000 1421N 05425W 6412 03849 0037 +068 +029 313021 021 006 000 00
211030 1421N 05422W 6431 03826 0044 +065 +034 314020 021 008 000 00
211100 1422N 05420W 6429 03829 0039 +067 +032 308019 020 008 000 00
211130 1422N 05418W 6428 03829 0040 +067 +032 303018 019 009 000 00
211200 1423N 05416W 6428 03829 0037 +068 +032 302018 018 014 000 03
211230 1423N 05413W 6428 03829 0037 +068 +035 303018 018 013 000 03
211300 1423N 05411W 6428 03828 0041 +065 +038 301018 019 012 000 00
211330 1424N 05409W 6429 03826 0039 +066 +037 301020 020 016 000 03
211400 1424N 05407W 6428 03826 0037 +066 +038 301021 021 015 000 00
211430 1425N 05404W 6429 03825 0035 +068 +037 300020 020 013 000 00
211500 1425N 05402W 6428 03826 0034 +068 +038 300021 022 014 000 03
211530 1425N 05359W 6430 03823 0034 +067 +037 293020 021 012 000 00
211600 1426N 05357W 6430 03823 0034 +067 +037 291021 021 014 000 00
211630 1426N 05355W 6430 03822 0035 +067 +038 287021 021 017 000 03
211700 1427N 05352W 6431 03821 0036 +066 +037 286021 021 017 000 00
211730 1427N 05350W 6431 03822 0038 +064 +041 284021 022 999 999 03
211800 1429N 05349W 6421 03831 0034 +064 +046 285022 024 027 004 00

[wxman57]

Notice the northwest portion of storm not as symmetrical ... could that be some shear or dry area to its northwest? Eye and eyewall seem much closer to the storm's periphery on that side of the circulation.

It's definitely being hurt on the west and northwest side. Outflow appears restricted to the NW, and there could be some dry air intrusion on the western side. Oh and I checked and it's actually a little right of the forecast track from 24 hours ago. So it appears right on track to miss the NE Caribbean by about 250 miles. The threat to the islands appears minimal. All appears to be working out as forecast, steering current-wise.

[CrazyC83]

URNT11 KNHC 182026
97779 20254 30156 56100 73000 03023 66692 /5757
RMK AF303 0103A BILL OB 16
SWS = 28 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

The AF flight is over.

[OuterBanker]

OK, OK I was joking. Actually I guess my real question is wheather we were bugeted for it. In the last few years they have had to scrap missions because of buget shortfalls.

Personally, I think flights shlould be run on every tropical system. So we can establish the history of each. The more data we have, the more accurate projections will be.

[CrazyC83]

OK, OK I was joking. Actually I guess my real question is wheather we were bugeted for it. In the last few years they have had to scrap missions because of buget shortfalls.

Personally, I think flights shlould be run on every tropical system. So we can establish the history of each. The more data we have, the more accurate projections will be.

How would you fly out to the far eastern Atlantic? Station flights out of Cape Verde, Bermuda and the Azores?

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182128
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 09 20090818
211830 1431N 05347W 6405 03852 0030 +065 +046 283022 022 020 000 00
211900 1433N 05346W 6418 03835 0025 +069 +050 280024 026 021 000 03
211930 1435N 05345W 6443 03802 0027 +069 +047 276027 027 022 000 00
212000 1437N 05344W 6439 03806 0026 +069 +043 275027 027 019 000 03
212030 1438N 05343W 6432 03814 0029 +066 +043 276026 027 020 000 03
212100 1440N 05342W 6430 03816 0034 +062 +043 273025 025 028 000 00
212130 1442N 05340W 6425 03821 0038 +056 +048 265026 029 036 007 03
212200 1444N 05339W 6400 03849 0024 +061 +052 257029 033 033 007 03
212230 1446N 05338W 6425 03817 0028 +061 +042 270033 033 004 000 00
212300 1448N 05337W 6427 03813 0024 +063 +053 274031 032 009 000 03
212330 1450N 05336W 6430 03809 0024 +062 +062 276030 031 018 000 03
212400 1452N 05335W 6436 03800 0022 +063 +058 278030 030 020 000 00
212430 1454N 05333W 6433 03804 0021 +063 +050 284028 029 014 000 03
212500 1456N 05332W 6432 03803 0016 +067 +042 289027 027 999 999 03
212530 1458N 05331W 6432 03802 0023 +061 +041 292026 027 999 999 03
212600 1500N 05330W 6431 03803 0023 +061 +039 293026 027 999 999 03
212630 1502N 05329W 6434 03798 0012 +065 +048 301026 027 035 006 03
212700 1504N 05328W 6443 03785 0011 +062 +062 294026 030 038 002 03
212730 1506N 05327W 6430 03798 0010 +062 +062 290028 034 038 002 03
212800 1507N 05325W 6432 03794 0006 +063 +063 292024 026 034 005 03

[Derek Ortt]

I believe it is very expensive to base flights out of Bermuda. However, it has been done a few times before

[Derek Ortt]

looks like NOAA is flying at 650mb

[CrazyC83]

Conversion factor for 650mb = about 95% for flight-level winds?

[KWT]

wxman57, I noticed the northern quads has at times today been pretty thin in terms of the convection, there may well be something causing it to to be a little more ragged there.

[KWT]

I believe it is very expensive to base flights out of Bermuda. However, it has been done a few times before

Could they base it from somewhere in the north-east USA?
Also Bermuda could be an option but that could be a risk if they did get a direct hit, however unlikely by Bill?

[Derek Ortt]

Conversion factor for 650mb = about 95% for flight-level winds?

there is SFMR on board. No need to use conversion factors

[caribepr]

Notice the northwest portion of storm not as symmetrical ... could that be some shear or dry area to its northwest? Eye and eyewall seem much closer to the storm's periphery on that side of the circulation.

It's definitely being hurt on the west and northwest side. Outflow appears restricted to the NW, and there could be some dry air intrusion on the western side. Oh and I checked and it's actually a little right of the forecast track from 24 hours ago. So it appears right on track to miss the NE Caribbean by about 250 miles. The threat to the islands appears minimal. All appears to be working out as forecast, steering current-wise.

thank you...this is the sort of information I've been looking for from here...

[CrazyC83]

eh...
If I'm reading the maps right, the nogaps and euro models does actually impact Nova Scotia. Halifax, actually, is on the hot seat.

Hitting Halifax with a 90-degree angle to the harbour would be the worst in terms of storm surge, as it would send it into Halifax Harbour as opposed to the blocking shores.

[expat2carib]

Notice the northwest portion of storm not as symmetrical ... could that be some shear or dry area to its northwest? Eye and eyewall seem much closer to the storm's periphery on that side of the circulation.

It's definitely being hurt on the west and northwest side. Outflow appears restricted to the NW, and there could be some dry air intrusion on the western side. Oh and I checked and it's actually a little right of the forecast track from 24 hours ago. So it appears right on track to miss the NE Caribbean by about 250 miles. The threat to the islands appears minimal. All appears to be working out as forecast, steering current-wise.

Is the option still -like stated for some days ago - more weak, more movement to the west?

[kat61]

sounds like time for an intervention! I think EVERYONE needs to respect each others concerns.
Natural disasters are very stressful and approaching hurricanes can change course in the blink of an 'eye'(no pun intended). Science is not perfect! It's a gague to guess a scenario to keep
everyone safe based on the information. Models are NOT GODS and this is NOT a video game
where if you don't pay attention for a minute you loose POINTS. People could die. So can we support the concerns of everyone and maybe give more facts as to why thery need not worry rather than not validating their concerns.

[TheEuropean]

going down:

000
URNT15 KWBC 182138
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 10 20090818
212830 1509N 05324W 6435 03791 0007 +065 +060 297026 026 030 000 03
212900 1511N 05323W 6435 03791 0004 +068 +052 299028 030 036 001 03
212930 1513N 05322W 6434 03791 0000 +069 +058 293029 032 045 005 03
213000 1515N 05320W 6432 03793 9997 +071 +046 294031 034 043 001 03
213030 1516N 05319W 6434 03787 9994 +070 +055 295035 036 999 999 03
213100 1518N 05318W 6435 03784 9996 +069 +035 295036 037 999 999 03
213130 1520N 05317W 6434 03783 9998 +066 +041 297041 042 023 000 03
213200 1522N 05316W 6434 03780 9997 +065 +041 295042 043 023 000 03
213230 1524N 05314W 6435 03778 9996 +064 +039 293042 043 025 000 03
213300 1526N 05313W 6435 03777 9996 +063 +040 290040 040 027 000 03
213330 1527N 05312W 6436 03773 9989 +066 +046 287035 036 999 999 03
213400 1529N 05311W 6435 03773 9986 +066 +056 289036 037 999 999 03
213430 1531N 05310W 6434 03773 9986 +064 +056 293038 038 025 000 03
213500 1533N 05309W 6434 03772 9984 +065 +051 292037 038 999 999 03
213530 1535N 05308W 6435 03768 9976 +069 +055 291036 037 031 001 03
213600 1537N 05307W 6435 03765 9972 +069 +063 288037 037 034 000 03
213630 1539N 05306W 6440 03760 9971 +069 +064 288040 042 037 001 00
213700 1541N 05304W 6499 03678 9964 +074 +074 293043 045 038 001 03
213730 1542N 05303W 6609 03537 9960 +083 +082 299045 046 037 001 03
213800 1544N 05302W 6764 03341 9967 +086 +086 299044 045 039 000 03