ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[GeneratorPower]

I have heard that the 12z EURO is shifted quite a bit WEST. Definately worth watching.

[Thunder44]

I have heard that the 12z EURO is shifted quite a bit WEST. Definately worth watching.

Hits SE Newfoundland at 144hrs:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Derek Ortt]

NOGAPS has landfall near the U.S. Canadian Border

[Thunder44]

Flying into the NE Quad now:



000
URNT15 KNHC 181819
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 22 20090818
180900 1523N 05052W 6940 03145 9999 +099 +075 199063 064 046 006 00
180930 1520N 05050W 6941 03149 0002 +100 +076 200065 066 044 007 00
181000 1519N 05049W 6941 03153 0001 +103 +068 201065 066 045 001 00
181030 1518N 05048W 6941 03155 0001 +106 +062 202066 068 046 003 00
181100 1517N 05046W 6941 03158 9999 +110 +061 203066 067 045 005 00
181130 1516N 05045W 6941 03163 9997 +110 +065 201065 066 045 006 00
181200 1515N 05044W 6935 03167 9999 +111 +069 204062 064 046 006 00
181230 1514N 05043W 6939 03162 0001 +110 +066 208061 061 046 006 00
181300 1513N 05042W 6941 03162 0002 +110 +064 213059 062 046 005 00
181330 1512N 05041W 6940 03162 0004 +108 +060 216055 056 044 005 00
181400 1510N 05040W 6941 03161 0011 +105 +059 216053 054 042 002 00
181430 1509N 05038W 6940 03167 0017 +099 +063 216054 054 044 003 00
181500 1508N 05037W 6929 03183 0024 +096 +086 217055 056 043 004 00
181530 1507N 05036W 6939 03172 0027 +093 +093 220055 055 044 000 00
181600 1505N 05034W 6939 03173 0023 +097 +089 221054 055 042 000 00
181630 1504N 05033W 6936 03179 0033 +095 +065 218055 055 041 000 00
181700 1502N 05031W 6937 03183 0049 +088 +064 212052 053 041 002 00
181730 1500N 05029W 6940 03181 0054 +083 +071 208052 053 041 000 00
181800 1459N 05028W 6941 03179 0052 +087 +069 206053 053 041 000 00
181830 1457N 05026W 6942 03180 0050 +091 +060 202051 052 040 000 03
$$

000
URNT15 KNHC 181828
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 23 20090818
181900 1456N 05024W 6932 03196 0051 +094 +062 195048 049 999 999 03
181930 1458N 05022W 6940 03182 0051 +094 +062 191045 045 999 999 03
182000 1501N 05022W 6940 03188 0055 +089 +061 190042 043 034 000 03
182030 1503N 05023W 6940 03185 0054 +087 +062 192047 048 040 000 03
182100 1506N 05024W 6943 03176 0048 +088 +062 192049 049 042 000 03
182130 1509N 05025W 6939 03181 0051 +085 +057 197051 052 041 000 00
182200 1511N 05025W 6942 03173 0046 +087 +061 199054 055 042 000 00
182230 1514N 05025W 6940 03173 0037 +093 +058 196055 056 042 000 00
182300 1517N 05026W 6937 03180 0035 +092 +058 197054 055 043 000 00
182330 1520N 05026W 6943 03166 0027 +097 +052 198055 056 042 000 00
182400 1523N 05027W 6943 03165 0023 +099 +051 196056 058 043 000 00
182430 1526N 05027W 6935 03174 0020 +101 +050 199057 058 042 000 00
182500 1529N 05028W 6940 03165 0021 +099 +051 200058 058 045 000 00
182530 1532N 05028W 6940 03166 0024 +095 +059 196058 059 045 000 00
182600 1534N 05028W 6937 03168 0024 +095 +059 193059 060 046 000 00
182630 1537N 05029W 6951 03151 0022 +095 +063 193058 059 048 000 00
182700 1540N 05029W 6943 03158 0015 +100 +056 193059 059 046 002 00
182730 1543N 05029W 6941 03159 0018 +094 +063 193059 060 046 001 00
182800 1545N 05030W 6936 03164 0022 +086 +086 192060 060 047 000 00
182830 1547N 05030W 6943 03149 0020 +086 +086 192062 063 046 002 00
$$

[GeneratorPower]

I think the 00z models tonight will have ingested most of the data from the high altitude flights today. That should give us a much better picture. Will the EURO incorporate that data?

[KWT]

Seems like a real trend for a west shift and a possible hit on Newfoundland.

I really think its still possibl for this to reach the US/Canada border but we shall see...either way I think this could well be a cat-2/3 threat even that far north.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 03, 2009081818, , BEST, 0, 162N, 517W, 90, 962, HU, 34, NEQ

It was upgraded to 95 kt at 1200Z, but should probably be adjusted back down.

[KWT]

Yeah given the recon data looks like 95kts was a touch high, 90kts seems more reasonable given the data coming from the planes.

The more I see the models the more this looks like it may not be so much of a Bermuda threat, but in response it then becomes more of a threat to Canada, hopefully this doesn't end up like Juan.

[CrazyC83]

Seems like a real trend for a west shift and a possible hit on Newfoundland.

I really think its still possibl for this to reach the US/Canada border but we shall see...either way I think this could well be a cat-2/3 threat even that far north.

The Gulf of Maine is really cold though, much colder than the open Atlantic south of Cape Cod and Nova Scotia, so any hurricane that enters that would weaken much more rapidly.

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181838
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 24 20090818
182900 1550N 05031W 6944 03148 0020 +086 +086 190064 064 045 002 00
182930 1552N 05031W 6943 03153 0015 +090 +080 187062 063 045 002 00
183000 1555N 05031W 6938 03157 0011 +095 +062 183060 061 048 000 00
183030 1557N 05032W 6939 03154 0002 +102 +050 178061 062 047 001 00
183100 1600N 05032W 6941 03149 0000 +104 +050 180065 066 047 001 00
183130 1602N 05032W 6943 03150 0012 +090 +064 178066 067 047 004 00
183200 1605N 05033W 6939 03154 0003 +097 +064 173066 067 047 004 00
183230 1607N 05033W 6936 03156 0005 +097 +052 171069 070 046 003 00
183300 1610N 05033W 6940 03150 0007 +095 +057 168071 071 047 002 00
183330 1613N 05034W 6940 03148 0012 +086 +079 169070 071 045 005 00
183400 1615N 05034W 6940 03146 0010 +088 +078 168070 071 047 006 00
183430 1618N 05034W 6940 03147 0005 +091 +079 168069 070 048 004 00
183500 1620N 05035W 6938 03148 0005 +090 +085 166069 069 049 003 00
183530 1623N 05035W 6939 03145 0009 +087 +083 167071 072 050 003 00
183600 1625N 05036W 6937 03153 0007 +091 +079 166072 074 050 004 00
183630 1628N 05036W 6938 03152 0009 +083 +083 166074 076 051 007 01
183700 1630N 05036W 6942 03144 0001 +093 +083 165075 075 049 004 00
183730 1633N 05037W 6936 03152 0002 +089 +089 164074 076 047 003 00
183800 1635N 05037W 6938 03146 0004 +090 +090 165074 075 048 002 00
183830 1637N 05037W 6942 03143 0005 +089 +086 163076 076 047 003 00
$$

[KWT]

True it all depends on the speed its moving and its exact angle of attack as well so to speak.

[HurricaneBelle]

Its probably because the southern side is better formed, the northern side hasn't been looking the strongest IMO over the last few hours, a little bare.

Also looks like models are getting closer to Newfoundland each run...looks to be the biggest threat since Juan up there thats for sure.

Juan hit Nova Scotia, it didn't hit Newfoundland.

[Frank2]

Here's a good IR loop:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

KWT, the EC trough at the end of week is forecast to be September-like, so as you said it might track to the east of Bermuda...

[Derek Ortt]

for a hurricane to remain strong at Maine landfall, it is best to come from the SSE so it crosses the Gulfstream the latest

of course, a very strong trough and QG enhancement won't hurt. Michael in 2000 showed you can still get RI over very cold water with a nice trough

[cycloneye]

Hmmm,12z NOGAPS likes close to land track,close to Northern Leewards.clips Outerbanks,ends in Newfoundland/Nova Scotia.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Derek Ortt]

Here's a good IR loop:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

KWT, the EC trough at the end of week is forecast to be September-like, so as you said it might track to the east of Bermuda...

huh? East of Bermuda?

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181848
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 25 20090818
183900 1640N 05038W 6942 03141 0007 +088 +074 161076 076 047 002 00
183930 1642N 05038W 6939 03147 0009 +087 +073 159074 076 047 001 00
184000 1645N 05038W 6942 03143 0014 +084 +082 156072 073 047 003 00
184030 1647N 05039W 6938 03150 0016 +082 +082 153073 073 047 001 00
184100 1649N 05039W 6942 03148 0018 +081 +081 151072 073 048 002 00
184130 1652N 05039W 6938 03150 0008 +092 +072 151075 075 047 002 00
184200 1654N 05040W 6942 03146 0006 +093 +062 151077 078 048 002 00
184230 1656N 05040W 6943 03149 0010 +092 +065 152075 077 049 001 00
184300 1659N 05040W 6939 03154 0014 +090 +069 150070 072 050 003 00
184330 1701N 05041W 6941 03152 0013 +093 +063 148069 070 050 003 00
184400 1703N 05041W 6941 03151 0012 +095 +065 146069 070 048 003 00
184430 1706N 05041W 6940 03153 0010 +088 +078 145075 077 046 006 01
184500 1708N 05042W 6949 03146 0011 +093 +089 145075 077 043 003 00
184530 1710N 05042W 6934 03158 0014 +086 +086 145077 081 044 002 00
184600 1712N 05042W 6943 03146 0018 +087 +087 144074 076 044 008 03
184630 1715N 05043W 6935 03165 0022 +086 +086 148070 071 043 005 00
184700 1717N 05043W 6945 03152 0017 +093 +068 149071 071 043 002 00
184730 1719N 05043W 6944 03157 0023 +088 +080 145071 071 045 000 00
184800 1722N 05044W 6940 03162 0024 +090 +065 144070 071 045 000 00
184830 1724N 05044W 6945 03159 0025 +091 +070 143069 070 045 000 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Its probably because the southern side is better formed, the northern side hasn't been looking the strongest IMO over the last few hours, a little bare.

Also looks like models are getting closer to Newfoundland each run...looks to be the biggest threat since Juan up there thats for sure.

Juan hit Nova Scotia, it didn't hit Newfoundland.

Ah my bad, my geography isn't as good as it should be, I suppose I have a small excuse of being on the other side of the Atlantic!

Models really don't suggest this going east of Bermuda, they seem to have shifted westwards today.

[Thunder44]

The plane is turning around for another pass now. I don't know what happend with my sat image:



000
URNT15 KNHC 181858
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 26 20090818
184900 1726N 05044W 6944 03160 0020 +097 +057 141068 069 045 000 00
184930 1728N 05045W 6945 03162 0023 +096 +054 141067 068 046 000 03
185000 1730N 05046W 6938 03176 0027 +100 +048 139064 065 999 999 03
185030 1730N 05048W 6943 03162 0023 +097 +054 140061 062 046 003 03
185100 1728N 05049W 6942 03164 0027 +090 +068 140061 061 045 001 00
185130 1727N 05051W 6944 03156 0024 +090 +072 139062 063 045 001 00
185200 1726N 05052W 6943 03154 0020 +092 +070 138066 066 045 001 00
185230 1725N 05053W 6943 03154 0019 +090 +082 137066 067 046 001 00
185300 1724N 05055W 6944 03149 0015 +089 +089 136067 068 046 001 00
185330 1723N 05056W 6942 03146 0014 +089 +089 137070 071 048 003 00
185400 1722N 05057W 6943 03145 0014 +088 +088 139070 071 046 004 00
185430 1720N 05058W 6942 03148 0008 +091 +091 141071 073 044 003 00
185500 1719N 05100W 6942 03143 0000 +093 +089 139072 074 045 004 00
185530 1718N 05101W 6943 03144 0002 +090 +090 136068 072 046 006 00
185600 1717N 05102W 6943 03140 0000 +092 +092 135066 067 047 005 00
185630 1716N 05103W 6942 03139 0001 +090 +090 131067 068 048 004 00
185700 1714N 05105W 6945 03131 0006 +083 +083 128068 070 049 005 00
185730 1713N 05106W 6950 03123 9990 +086 +086 133069 071 049 008 01
185800 1712N 05107W 6938 03136 9990 +091 +090 134073 074 050 006 00
185830 1711N 05109W 6939 03129 9980 +093 +093 134075 077 050 006 00
$$