ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Thunder44]

where are the HDOBS?

Only one so far is from when they took off from Barbados this morning:

000
URNT15 KWBC 180750
NOAA3 WX03A BILL HDOB 01 20090818
075000 1304N 05930W 0058 00050 0113 +266 +239 064007 012 999 999 03

[Thunder44]

Drop 17

Code: Select all

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 12:59Z
Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Bill (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 17

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 18th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 200mb
Coordinates: 17.4N 45.0W
Location: 1019 miles (1640 km) to the ENE (73°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 041 (About)


Level
Geo. Height
Air Temp.
Dew Point
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1015mb (29.97 inHg)
Sea Level (Surface)
25.8°C (78.4°F)
24.0°C (75.2°F)
110° (from the ESE)
16 knots (18 mph)
1000mb
130m (427 ft)
24.8°C (76.6°F)
23.3°C (73.9°F)
110° (from the ESE)
20 knots (23 mph)
925mb
814m (2,671 ft)
21.8°C (71.2°F)
17.1°C (62.8°F)
160° (from the SSE)
23 knots (26 mph)
850mb
1,543m (5,062 ft)
16.4°C (61.5°F)
15.7°C (60.3°F)
150° (from the SSE)
18 knots (21 mph)
700mb
3,183m (10,443 ft)
10.4°C (50.7°F)
Approximately 5°C (41°F)
150° (from the SSE)
21 knots (24 mph)
500mb
5,900m (19,357 ft)
-5.1°C (22.8°F)
-9.3°C (15.3°F)
125° (from the SE)
19 knots (22 mph)
400mb
7,620m (25,000 ft)
-15.9°C (3.4°F)
Approximately -22°C (-8°F)
135° (from the SE)
15 knots (17 mph)
300mb
9,730m (31,923 ft)
-30.5°C (-22.9°F)
-35.3°C (-31.5°F)
135° (from the SE)
9 knots (10 mph)
250mb
11,000m (36,089 ft)
-40.3°C (-40.5°F)
Approximately -47°C (-53°F)
55° (from the NE)
2 knots (2 mph)
200mb
12,480m (40,945 ft)
-53.3°C (-63.9°F)
Approximately -64°C (-83°F)
280° (from the W)
10 knots (12 mph)


Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 12:33Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
Splash Location: 17.42N 45.06W
Splash Time: 12:48Z

Splash Location: 17.41N 45.06W
Splash Time: 12:47:57Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 21 knots (24 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 140° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 152mb to 1013mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 18 knots (21 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20801

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level
Air Temperature
Dew Point
1015mb (Surface)
25.8°C (78.4°F)
24.0°C (75.2°F)
954mb
23.6°C (74.5°F)
Approximately 19°C (66°F)
850mb
16.4°C (61.5°F)
15.7°C (60.3°F)
764mb
13.8°C (56.8°F)
Approximately 9°C (48°F)
727mb
11.6°C (52.9°F)
Approximately 7°C (45°F)
714mb
10.6°C (51.1°F)
8.0°C (46.4°F)
703mb
10.6°C (51.1°F)
Approximately 5°C (41°F)
652mb
5.8°C (42.4°F)
3.7°C (38.7°F)
610mb
2.6°C (36.7°F)
-0.4°C (31.3°F)
594mb
1.6°C (34.9°F)
0.9°C (33.6°F)
578mb
1.0°C (33.8°F)
-2.6°C (27.3°F)
495mb
-5.5°C (22.1°F)
-10.1°C (13.8°F)
474mb
-8.3°C (17.1°F)
-10.8°C (12.6°F)
459mb
-9.1°C (15.6°F)
Approximately -17°C (1°F)
451mb
-10.1°C (13.8°F)
-13.7°C (7.3°F)
444mb
-10.3°C (13.5°F)
Approximately -25°C (-13°F)
440mb
-10.7°C (12.7°F)
Approximately -27°C (-17°F)
424mb
-12.9°C (8.8°F)
-16.2°C (2.8°F)
409mb
-15.3°C (4.5°F)
-17.9°C (-0.2°F)
401mb
-15.9°C (3.4°F)
Approximately -22°C (-8°F)
386mb
-17.7°C (0.1°F)
-21.1°C (-6.0°F)
372mb
-19.1°C (-2.4°F)
-23.9°C (-11.0°F)
330mb
-25.7°C (-14.3°F)
-28.0°C (-18.4°F)
315mb
-27.9°C (-18.2°F)
Approximately -35°C (-31°F)
303mb
-30.1°C (-22.2°F)
-34.6°C (-30.3°F)
281mb
-33.9°C (-29.0°F)
Approximately -43°C (-45°F)
264mb
-37.3°C (-35.1°F)
Approximately -49°C (-56°F)
250mb
-40.3°C (-40.5°F)
Approximately -47°C (-53°F)
235mb
-43.9°C (-47.0°F)
Approximately -50°C (-58°F)
199mb
-53.5°C (-64.3°F)
Approximately -64°C (-83°F)
186mb
-57.7°C (-71.9°F)
Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F)



Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1015mb (Surface)
110° (from the ESE)
16 knots (18 mph)
976mb
125° (from the SE)
24 knots (28 mph)
934mb
155° (from the SSE)
21 knots (24 mph)
892mb
165° (from the SSE)
26 knots (30 mph)
874mb
160° (from the SSE)
20 knots (23 mph)
850mb
150° (from the SSE)
18 knots (21 mph)
800mb
125° (from the SE)
24 knots (28 mph)
749mb
130° (from the SE)
24 knots (28 mph)
703mb
150° (from the SSE)
21 knots (24 mph)
588mb
145° (from the SE)
26 knots (30 mph)
551mb
130° (from the SE)
21 knots (24 mph)
495mb
125° (from the SE)
18 knots (21 mph)
473mb
135° (from the SE)
18 knots (21 mph)
457mb
165° (from the SSE)
19 knots (22 mph)
434mb
165° (from the SSE)
18 knots (21 mph)
406mb
135° (from the SE)
14 knots (16 mph)
372mb
140° (from the SE)
16 knots (18 mph)
347mb
100° (from the E)
15 knots (17 mph)
315mb
135° (from the SE)
10 knots (12 mph)
252mb
90° (from the E)
2 knots (2 mph)
228mb
35° (from the NE)
10 knots (12 mph)
200mb
280° (from the W)
10 knots (12 mph)
179mb
280° (from the W)
22 knots (25 mph)
167mb
335° (from the NNW)
14 knots (16 mph)

[Thunder44]

Drop 18:

Code: Select all

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 13:16Z
Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Bill (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 18

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 18th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 200mb
Coordinates: 15.7N 46.0W
Location: 929 miles (1496 km) to the E (79°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 041 (About)


Level
Geo. Height
Air Temp.
Dew Point
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1013mb (29.91 inHg)
Sea Level (Surface)
26.4°C (79.5°F)
23.4°C (74.1°F)
Unavailable
1000mb
114m (374 ft)
25.4°C (77.7°F)
22.9°C (73.2°F)
160° (from the SSE)
25 knots (29 mph)
925mb
798m (2,618 ft)
21.2°C (70.2°F)
18.7°C (65.7°F)
160° (from the SSE)
36 knots (41 mph)
850mb
1,528m (5,013 ft)
17.2°C (63.0°F)
15.0°C (59.0°F)
175° (from the S)
34 knots (39 mph)
700mb
3,170m (10,400 ft)
9.0°C (48.2°F)
6.9°C (44.4°F)
150° (from the SSE)
30 knots (35 mph)
500mb
5,890m (19,324 ft)
-6.3°C (20.7°F)
-9.9°C (14.2°F)
140° (from the SE)
35 knots (40 mph)
400mb
7,610m (24,967 ft)
-15.1°C (4.8°F)
-17.8°C (-0.0°F)
155° (from the SSE)
27 knots (31 mph)
300mb
9,720m (31,890 ft)
-29.9°C (-21.8°F)
Approximately -35°C (-31°F)
125° (from the SE)
21 knots (24 mph)
250mb
10,990m (36,056 ft)
-40.3°C (-40.5°F)
Approximately -46°C (-51°F)
140° (from the SE)
14 knots (16 mph)
200mb
12,470m (40,912 ft)
-53.1°C (-63.6°F)
Approximately -64°C (-83°F)
255° (from the WSW)
15 knots (17 mph)


Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 12:48Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
Splash Location: 15.77N 45.99W
Splash Time: 13:03Z

Release Location: 15.68N 45.95W
Release Time: 12:48:48Z

Splash Location: 15.77N 45.99W
Splash Time: 13:03:23Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 29 knots (33 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 21 knots (24 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 153mb to 1011mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 163 gpm - 13 gpm (535 geo. feet - 43 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 24 knots (28 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20801

Height of the last reported wind: 16 geopotential meters

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level
Air Temperature
Dew Point
1013mb (Surface)
26.4°C (79.5°F)
23.4°C (74.1°F)
850mb
17.2°C (63.0°F)
15.0°C (59.0°F)
796mb
15.6°C (60.1°F)
13.5°C (56.3°F)
738mb
11.6°C (52.9°F)
10.4°C (50.7°F)
702mb
9.0°C (48.2°F)
7.1°C (44.8°F)
684mb
8.6°C (47.5°F)
Approximately 4°C (39°F)
612mb
4.2°C (39.6°F)
Approximately -1°C (30°F)
551mb
-0.3°C (31.5°F)
-5.2°C (22.6°F)
487mb
-8.3°C (17.1°F)
-11.4°C (11.5°F)
400mb
-15.1°C (4.8°F)
-17.8°C (-0.0°F)
314mb
-27.3°C (-17.1°F)
-31.8°C (-25.2°F)
275mb
-34.9°C (-30.8°F)
Approximately -40°C (-40°F)
234mb
-43.9°C (-47.0°F)
Approximately -50°C (-58°F)
199mb
-53.5°C (-64.3°F)
Approximately -64°C (-83°F)
189mb
-56.1°C (-69.0°F)
Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F)
177mb
-57.5°C (-71.5°F)
Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F)



Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1013mb (Surface)
Unavailable
1011mb
155° (from the SSE)
24 knots (28 mph)
960mb
150° (from the SSE)
35 knots (40 mph)
889mb
175° (from the S)
33 knots (38 mph)
850mb
175° (from the S)
34 knots (39 mph)
702mb
150° (from the SSE)
30 knots (35 mph)
619mb
165° (from the SSE)
31 knots (36 mph)
506mb
140° (from the SE)
36 knots (41 mph)
461mb
165° (from the SSE)
35 knots (40 mph)
375mb
150° (from the SSE)
28 knots (32 mph)
344mb
130° (from the SE)
23 knots (26 mph)
317mb
145° (from the SE)
23 knots (26 mph)
295mb
120° (from the ESE)
20 knots (23 mph)
271mb
145° (from the SE)
21 knots (24 mph)
251mb
135° (from the SE)
15 knots (17 mph)
225mb
175° (from the S)
3 knots (3 mph)
212mb
255° (from the WSW)
11 knots (13 mph)
191mb
265° (from the W)
13 knots (15 mph)
179mb
325° (from the NW)
18 knots (21 mph)
175mb
340° (from the NNW)
16 knots (18 mph)
160mb
350° (from the N)
14 knots (16 mph)

The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.

---

Dropsonde Diagram:

[tolakram]

from:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[KWT]

If thats not a major hurricane then nothing ever will be, looking very imressive and the NHC probably will upgrade soon based on this and the rapidly increasing T-numbers.

[WmE]

The eye is still a little ragged though. Nice mesovortices in the pic above.

[arkestra]

W - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2009 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 15:47:07 N Lon : 50:23:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 948.0mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.1 6.1 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

[btangy]

4 model grand global ensemble from 8/18/09 at 00Z. Still showing a bimodal distribution in tracks similar to the ECMWF/GFS and CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS split. Pretty much equal probability for both paths. About a 25-30% chance of Bill passing within 150km of Bermuda.

[artist]

4 model grand global ensemble from 8/18/09 at 00Z. Still showing a bimodal distribution in tracks similar to the ECMWF/GFS and CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS split. Pretty much equal probability for both paths. About a 25-30% chance of Bill passing within 150km of Bermuda.

thanks btangy. So which models I bringing it over toward the Fl coast?

[srainhoutx]

I posted this link in the Bill Model Topic, but thought that folks might like to take a peak. This has been one of my favorites for a long time for getting a good look at the big picture...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

[artist]

I posted this link in the Bill Model Topic, but thought that folks might like to take a peak. This has been one of my favorites for a long time for getting a good look at the big picture...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

I saw that srain and now have it bookmarked! Thanks!

[sandyb]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
doesnt it look like its moving west now?

[artist]

I think he is stair stepping to his next point. If you check the trop pts you can see that appears to be the case.

[Sanibel]

Think you hit the topic button instead of reply.

[Macrocane]

I agree that the eye is still ragged, the strongest convection is still not surrounding the eye, maybe not a major but very near to be one.

[btangy]

thanks btangy. So which models I bringing it over toward the Fl coast?

That's the rogue FL wishcast model. I wouldn't read too much into outliers. Probably just a bizarre model run or even problems with the vortex tracker jumping to the wrong vortex.

[KWT]

Its probably between 95-100kts right now I'd guess. The eye still isn't quite perfect but its still developing pretty wel IMO.

[artist]

thanks btangy. So which models I bringing it over toward the Fl coast?

That's the rogue FL wishcast model. I wouldn't read too much into outliers. Probably just a bizarre model run or even problems with the vortex tracker jumping to the wrong vortex.

thanks, just curious, was it the cgun and ngxi again?

[KWT]

Whats interesting is even though there are western and eastern branches they both meet up in the end anyway just past 35N.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through sonde 18: