EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[HURAKAN]

For someone who knows very little about that area can anyone tell me. Is the baja peninsula low lying and densely populated at all? That storm looks like it will push a massive storm surge in to the inlet.

[cycloneye]

Plan of the day for Jimena

First mission tommorow at 2 PM EDT.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0113E JIMENA
C. 31/1315Z
D. 19.0N 108.8W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: JIMENA FIX MISSION FOR
01/1800Z NEAR 22.5N 110.8W.

[cycloneye]

First mission will be tommorow with plane departing at 9:15 AM EDT.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0113E JIMENA
C. 31/1315Z
D. 19.0N 108.8W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: JIMENA FIX MISSION FOR
01/1800Z NEAR 22.5N 110.8W.

[KWT]

Then we will get a true idea just how powerful this system really is!

[clfenwi]

Looking at accuracy of the 00Z and 12Z forecasts starting at 00Z of the 20th (showing 12/24/36 hour forecast errors in nautical miles)

NHC 29.7/59.5/68 (generally too far south, though the error in the last 12h forecast was 1/2° too far north)

GFDL 37.7/55/86 (generally too far east)

GFS 41.7/69/103 (generally too far south, but may be getting a grip, as the last 12h forecast was good (17 nm))

[masaji79]

Given the storm's northward movement I wonder how the remnants could affect the Southwest monsoons? It's been a very quiet year for thunderstorms here in Southern Nevada.

[KWT]

Looking very good, odds are that Baja will probably get hit by a category-2/3, which would be quite potent for that part of the basin.

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive. Cat 5 is very possible looking at this image

[KWT]

Yeah shame we don't have recon in there at the moment as I'd bet it would indeed be very close to category-5 at this moment, impressive!

[Dave C]

The mexican radar site with cabo isn't working, does anyone know if there is any other sites to get it? Would be nice to have radar of it as it approaches Cabo san lucas.

[bombarderoazul]

This could become the 13th cat 5 in recorded history in the EPAC.

[Dave C]

I noticed it took a wobble to the sw on the latest visable loop. Each wooble could be very important for Cabo San Lucas down the road! On that zoomed in visable a couple of posts back there looks to be a ring of protruding cloud tops outside the eye, could be a ERC starting up?

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2009 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 16:19:02 N Lon : 106:31:10 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 937.4mb/127.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.4 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -18.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Kidding, right?!?

[Dave C]

Lets go all the way and say it's an open wave.

[HURAKAN]

The eye of the monster

[Derek Ortt]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2009 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 16:19:02 N Lon : 106:31:10 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 937.4mb/127.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.4 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -18.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Kidding, right?!?

that weakening flag can be a joke at times

[clfenwi]

] Weakening Flag : ON [/size][/color]
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Kidding, right?!?

That's because of the blip in the final T-number at 1615Z when it went from 6.5 to 6.4. Note also that the raw numbers have dropped off since this morning. It's slightly more valid than when the weakening flag got put on yesterday morning. (ADT history for Jimena)

[KWT]

Yeah clearly this one isn't weakening, so what if its slightly gone down on the T numbers, its clearly a very well organised strong hurricane!
Great structure, I'd put this around 125-130kts at the moment myself.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 13, 2009083018, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1066W, 115, 948, HU

Another one of those, "kidding, right?"

[KWT]

I'd think if recon was in there right now there'd have a shock almost the size of what they had with Hugo, I'd be surprised if it isn't a little stronger then that estimate.