ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[CrazyC83]

20 kt? QuikSCAT seems to think it is more like 50-55 kt. It is still nowhere near being a tropical cyclone though.

[Blown Away]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 92, 2009082500, , BEST, 0, 178N, 599W, 20, 1012, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

Starting to see slight cyclonic rotation near that area.

[weatherwindow]

have seen many TCs intensify very quickly when moving at 25KT.

the speed is not a problem at all if there is no shear

derek....given forward speed and proximity, what are the chances that cyclogenesis occurs further west than, say, 73degw or so , as could be implied by the 72hr tafb surface forcast??...any plausible chance of missing the trough and impacting the southern half of the penisula?.......rich

looking for an informed opinion here..can any promet answer this one?....thanks, rich

[jinftl]

Current est of 17.8N and 59.9W already puts out south and west of all models in the map

00 UTC Bam Models

SHIP continues to forecast hurricane intensity by 96 hours.


WHXX01 KWBC 250044
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090825 0000 090825 1200 090826 0000 090826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 59.9W 20.2N 63.6W 22.7N 66.2W 25.0N 68.6W
BAMD 17.8N 59.9W 19.8N 62.2W 21.9N 64.3W 23.8N 66.1W
BAMM 17.8N 59.9W 19.5N 62.8W 21.3N 65.2W 22.9N 67.1W
LBAR 17.8N 59.9W 19.6N 62.9W 21.4N 65.4W 23.0N 67.6W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090827 0000 090828 0000 090829 0000 090830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.2N 70.4W 30.9N 72.3W 34.4N 71.8W 38.5N 66.8W
BAMD 25.3N 67.9W 27.6N 70.5W 30.1N 71.3W 34.2N 69.0W
BAMM 24.4N 68.9W 26.7N 71.7W 29.1N 72.6W 32.1N 71.5W
LBAR 24.4N 69.3W 26.2N 71.4W 27.8N 72.7W 29.8N 73.5W
SHIP 44KTS 56KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 44KTS 56KTS 66KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 59.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 56.0W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 52.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Derek Ortt]

dont think you'll see anything in the southern half of the peninsula

[Blown Away]

[Aric Dunn]

I highly doubt we are going to see such a sharp recurve.. that trough off the east coast is very weak and the ridge pushing towards the east coast is quite strong... I expect the models to trend more west over the next few runs... considering the Euro is significantly farther west before any recurve..

[Rainband]

dont think you'll see anything in the southern half of the peninsula

or anywhere in Florida for that matter

[wxman57]

Current est of 17.8N and 59.9W already puts out south and west of all models in the map

I thought that, too, at first. But the map's latitude lines are drawn every 2 degrees. The starting point of all the models is 17.8N/59.9W. Of course, there's no center of anything there now. It's just a point picked to represent a "center". And the BAM models are probably way too slow in moving the disturbance. Only to 70W in 4 days? Should be past 75W by then.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

These models are struggling with the Upper-level low in the vicinity. We have seen the models shown above (e.g like the BAMs) struggle with this type of setup time and time again. In addition the XTRAP (i.e. extrapolation of current movement) shows a more WNW movement, while all of the models shown above call for a more NW component now which clearly is not happening.

With that said, I expect models to shift more left over the coming days but show a recurve to be far enough east to miss Florida (I'm thinking about 150-200 miles or so east of Florida, similar to NAM/ECMWF). Development into Danny is a real possibility here still.

[JTD]

I'm certainly not a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center and am an amateur at watching these things at best; however, I just checked the 0z early model guidance that was posted above and all I can say is wow. This is about a clear cut case of recurvature as I've seen. Also, look at the standard synoptic this season, signifcant east coast troughs constantly that serve to deflect systems away from the USEC.

Unless, something drastic changes and yes I realize that the models can change and that they have trouble handling something that isn't clearly defined, this seems to be a system that will cause trouble only to fish.

Also, I heard on multiple weather boards last week why the models were wrong and that Bill would be a threat to New England. It was not. When the models indicate recurvature like this the way that they did with Bill, I tend to believe them candidly.

Now if the models start hinting at something else, I'll gladly change my opinion. I prefer to go by best available data.

[Aric Dunn]

Expect a track more west.. very similar to the UKMET .. as the ridge coming off the east coast is strong and most of the models are over estimating the strength of the weak trough near florida and the they are clearly not initializing the current overall motion as many have said and that is clearly noticeable.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

[hurricanedude]

hate to bust your bubble tropics dude. but bill was a threat to NE...as the coast of Mass had TS conditions...and there were at least a half dozen deaths from rip currents in coastal maine alone....threats of a storm dont always just mean wind...effects from tropical systems have may varibles, so think before u speak!

[Derek Ortt]

I'm certainly not a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center and am an amateur at watching these things at best; however, I just checked the 0z early model guidance that was posted above and all I can say is wow. This is about a clear cut case of recurvature as I've seen. Also, look at the standard synoptic this season, signifcant east coast troughs constantly that serve to deflect systems away from the USEC.

Unless, something drastic changes and yes I realize that the models can change and that they have trouble handling something that isn't clearly defined, this seems to be a system that will cause trouble only to fish.

Also, I heard on multiple weather boards last week why the models were wrong and that Bill would be a threat to New England. It was not. When the models indicate recurvature like this the way that they did with Bill, I tend to believe them candidly.

Now if the models start hinting at something else, I'll gladly change my opinion. I prefer to go by best available data.

you'd be wrong

most dynamical models, except GFS and its slaves (GFDL/HWRF) have this hitting the U.S. East Coast

[Blown Away]

The deep convection seems to be moving N and the wave is moving WNW at 25mph??

[hurricanedude]

its called shear....blowing the tops off to the north

[The Eye Wall]

From Adrian'sWeather.com--

The wind shear is eating 92L's lunch right now. Wow....



Though, I'm not sure if this was there earlier, but there is a bit of convergence at the surface near the deeper convection. Grant it, I haven't paid too much attention lately.

[george_r_1961]

I am watching this VERY closely. Could be an interesting weekend/early next week here.

[ROCK]

it eating it lunch alright but it also is helping sustain the convection. Long enough I supposed to get a LLC out of it by tomorrow IMO.....

some nice warm water to work with as it gets closer to FL...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Blown Away]

its called shear....blowing the tops off to the north

Yeah I know, all the convection is on the N side of the approximate circulation center and this convection is being blown N while the circulation is moving WNW. I think we will see the forward speed slow some at the 2am update, because if 92L continues at 25 mph it appears all the convection will be left behind.