ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF develops into a powerful hurricane and tracks over the open Atlantic as a big fish.

South America loop

North America loop

[pepeavilenho]

gfs






maybe gordon revval (2006).

euro as well.



thanks

[cycloneye]

What I am intrigued about is why all the models develop 96L by having favorable conditions and the system in front ex 95L didnt have favorable conditions.

[BigA]

What I am intrigued about is why all the models develop 96L by having favorable conditions and the system in front ex 95L didnt have favorable conditions.

I think the shear wall of death is expected to move north enough to allow for favorable conditions.

In any event, the invest looks better and better on the 15 minute update EUMETSAT imagery. It would be interesting to be able to get some observations out of the southern Cape Verde islands as it passes.

[cycloneye]

This looks like a TD already.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Very interresting discussion from San Juan PR...
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 061852
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SUN SEP 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW NEAR 29N 68W WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH TUE THEN MERGE WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. A MID-LVL
HIGH WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE REGION MID WEEK WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF EAST OF 65W. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR FCST TO MOVE IN FOR
TOMORROW. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY JUST
EAST OF 60W. EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION TOMORROW. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAKER CAP ON TUE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
44W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WED AND BRING OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT NOTHING LIKE WE SAW SAT MORNING.

IMPRESSIVE WAVE THAT EXITED THE AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WX OTLK FROM NHC BUT PRESENCE OF STRONG
CNTRL ATLC TROUGH WILL LIKELY RECURVE ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
BEFORE IT REACHES 40W.

LATEST RUNS OF THE EMPIRICAL WAVE MODEL...GFS...AND CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG POSITIVE 250 MB
VELOCITY ANOMALIES CORRESPONDING TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. WITH SUCH
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS PREDICTING STRONG DOWNWARD
MOTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC...AM ANTICIPATING AN OVERALL
RELATIVELY QUIET TWO-WEEK PERIOD IN TERMS OF TC ACTIVITY AND WITH
LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA OVER TJBQ EXPECTED UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE
VFR NEXT 18 HOURS ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY WED BRINGING AN INCREASE IN TSTM
ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 40
STT 76 90 76 89 / 30 30 20 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

93/64

[MGC]

Yes Cycloneye it does have the look of a TD. Time will tell if it holds together though. Should be a fish storm.....MGC

[abajan]

That is truly in the far eastern Atlantic. The system has just left the African coast and is already an invest. Amazing! I can't recall seeing a system being classified as an invest that far east.

[senorpepr]

That is truly in the far eastern Atlantic. The system has just left the African coast and is already an invest. Amazing! I can't recall seeing a system being classified as an invest that far east.

FWIW, on the ATCF, the first plot for 96L is 12.5, -18.0. That's in far NE Guinea-Bissau about 185 km NE of Bissau or about 300 km E of the coast.

[cycloneye]

GFS has a big wall at 40W.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[hcane27]

Invest 99L on August 31 in 2008 first best track position was 12,5N -10.8W way inside Africa

[CrazyC83]

If this is going to strengthen, it needs to stay at a low latitude - the TUTT will block anything that goes above 15°N. However, around 10°N, conditions are very favorable for development.

[CrazyC83]

Invest 99L on August 31 in 2008 first best track position was 12,5N -10.8W way inside Africa

That was future Ike?

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

Invest 99L on August 31 in 2008 first best track position was 12,5N -10.8W way inside Africa

That was future Ike?

Nope, Ike formed September 1st well west of Africa.

[Derek Ortt]

highly doubt this will be a fish

remember, fish means hitting no land. it has land right on its track!

[BigA]

highly doubt this will be a fish

remember, fish means hitting no land. it has land right on its track!

Good call, the southern Cape Verde islands could very well get windy, rainy conditions. It would be interesting to be able to get observations from there.

[wxman57]

highly doubt this will be a fish

remember, fish means hitting no land. it has land right on its track!

Has to be a named storm when it hits land, though. Otherwise, no wave coming off Africa could ever be called a fish because they produced storm in Africa.

[jinftl]

Given that it is likely to develop very far east in the atlantic, 96L has 'fish' written all over it...or so it would seem.....not all models agree on when recurve will take place.

96L, although very far east, is a bit south of where 95L was. Also, whereas 95L was moving wnw from the get-go, as of now, 96L is moving west.