ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

First we need to see this system develop and then we can talk about the future. A lot of people are already talking about a US landfall. At the moment, there's nothing to indicate that will happen. Everyone should know that the first computer runs are not very reliable and we need to see more of them. There is a lot of time. Don't let the panic reign!!!

[otowntiger]

large differences in the BAM models equals strong shear

Please explain.
(Thanks by the way for your constant input and tolerance of us amateurs.)

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection

[Emmett_Brown]

Very little data available yet, the last Quikscat pass missed 94L. Where Bill clearly had some rotation at this stage, it is less obvious with this wave, so my gut feeling is that it will be another 48 hours before TD. Probably around 40W.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful in this image:

[Sanibel]

Hope it recurves. Something about this one reminds me of a nasty little hurricane.


GFS finally recognizes it but keeps it as a weak minor cyclone.


CMC tracks it low towards Caribbean even though the weaknesses are still there off the east coast. GFS more towards recurve off east coast.

[HURAKAN]

GFS and CMC

[sandyb]

I noticed the CMC is pretty much in the same camp as these models, holding the ridge and driving it toward the Islands.

dont look at cmc its never right as we have seen with danny

[Evil Jeremy]

I noticed the CMC is pretty much in the same camp as these models, holding the ridge and driving it toward the Islands.

dont look at cmc its never right as we have seen with danny

Very few of the models were right with Danny, and the CMC has been much better this year than it has previously.

[Derek Ortt]

if there is a large spread in the BAM suite, it is because of different winds at different levels of the atmosphere

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Nice convection, potential she is compact and already has the "look". I don't think the same weather pattern is going to be in place in a week when whatever this turns out to be gets into the carribbean.

Lemme have a peek at the gfs and see where the trough and the high will be sitting in 72.

[Derek Ortt]

not that impressed. Convection seems more associated with the ITCZ

[Sanibel]

The red IR and slight curvature are the give aways. I think the board will be busy in a couple of days over this one.

[otowntiger]

not that impressed. Convection seems more associated with the ITCZ

Yeah, it is pretty close to the ITCZ but you really think that large circular blob is just being fed by the ITCZ? It looks fairly self contained to me.

[RNGR]

I noticed the CMC is pretty much in the same camp as these models, holding the ridge and driving it toward the Islands.

dont look at cmc its never right as we have seen with danny

Thats incorrect. CMC is a good model.

[cycloneye]

A good example of a low latitud system that developed was Ivan.It started more south than where 94L is.

Code: Select all

Date: 02-24 SEP 2004
Hurricane IVAN
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1   9.70  -29.10 09/02/21Z   25  1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2   9.80  -29.40 09/03/03Z   25  1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  3  10.00  -30.70 09/03/09Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  4   9.60  -32.90 09/03/15Z   40  1003 TROPICAL STORM
  5   8.90  -34.60 09/03/21Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  6   9.10  -35.80 09/04/03Z   45   999 TROPICAL STORM
  7   9.00  -37.40 09/04/09Z   50   997 TROPICAL STORM
  8   8.90  -38.90 09/04/15Z   50   997 TROPICAL STORM
  9   9.10  -40.80 09/04/21Z   50   994 TROPICAL STORM
 10   9.40  -42.20 09/05/03Z   60   991 TROPICAL STORM
 11   9.70  -44.30 09/05/09Z   65   987 HURRICANE-1
 12   9.90  -46.00 09/05/15Z   75   980 HURRICANE-1
 13  10.10  -46.60 09/05/17Z  100   960 HURRICANE-3
 14  10.40  -47.70 09/05/21Z  110   950 HURRICANE-3
14A  10.60  -48.50 09/06/00Z  115   948 HURRICANE-4
 15  10.80  -49.40 09/06/03Z  115   948 HURRICANE-4


[ConvergenceZone]

The fact that this is staying weak and so far south makes me believe that it won't recurve like the others.....

[tolakram]

This looks like a good place to post a tidbit from Jeff Masters blog.

From:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1295


Figure 2. Performance of the main models used to forecast Hurricane Bill. Forecasts for the time periods 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours are shown, with the track errors for each models' forecasts in nautical miles (nm). The statistics are shown for the regular interpolated version of the models used by the NHC forecasters in real time to make their forecasts. The "Consensus" model is the NHC's TVCN consensus, which is the average of at least two of the other models shown here (but not including the Canadian model). The Canadian model had the best performance of any model for Bill, surpassing even the Official NHC forecast. The next best performing models were the GFDL and GFS. Last year's best performing model, the European Center model, was not available for this analysis. Image credit: Dr. Jim Goerss, Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

[Cryomaniac]

The fact that this is staying weak and so far south makes me believe that it won't recurve like the others.....

Yeah, that occurred to me too.