ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Derek Ortt]

CMC no longer develops 100 hurricanes with the changes

[KWT]

Yeah there are certainly some interesting comprasions to be made between this set-up and Bob, esp on the CMC and the ECM which both led the way with Bill.

Sanibel, for now the pattern probably is decent for Florida, but firstly it could change and secondly we always have those late season systems to worry about, though in El Nino of course they are usually much less common.

[Sanibel]

GFS shows an obvious weakness in the east-oriented Bermuda High. I don't see any back-building ridge, so the models should be considered wack until both the system and synoptic resolve.

If you look closely two of those model tracks bend west and one enters what looks like it could be the beginning of a cyclonic loop.


I'd discount them until the situation becomes clearer.

[HURAKAN]

Latest on 92L

[cycloneye]

They are ready to go starting tommorow.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 24 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1900Z
D. 22.0N 67.0W
E. 25/2000Z TO 26/0001Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 26/0400Z
D. 23.0N 71.0W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 26/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[KWT]

Pretty convectivly active look there Hurakan, will be interesting to observe hoe well it continues to handle the shear in the next 24hrs or so and what happens when eventually the shear eases off somewhat. I think the ULL is doing a good job helping to keep convection flaring.

[KWT]

Clearly must have been preparing behind the scenes in case something got going in this region. Makes sense I suppose given the track will probably be towards the northern Bahamas region.

[KWT]

What may be happening with the GFS is its being over progressive with the whole pattern and too keen to kick the next upper trough out into the Atlantic. The ECM is certainly slower with that feature and is more amplified with the pattern as well.

The 12z suite will be interesting, so the cycle starts again.

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

[deltadog03]

That trof split from this past weekends trof in the east is really going to do the dirty work to help this one potentially take off.

Don't think this one is automatically a fish by any means.

[Sanibel]

The ULL might be flaring it but I see an increasing twist in the lower levels and main convection.

[KWT]

I've got to admit it is starting to already take on a fairly interesting shape, obviously shear is still hitting it but even at this stage, I can only describe it as having the look of a system that is attempting formation.

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

You scared me you jerk

[KWT]

Yep Deltadog, also I think the GFS has been somewhat progressive with kicking out the upper trough around 78-96hrs, the ECM did a splendid job with the upper feature with Bill so will be interesting to see if it stays further west on this run or reverts back closer to the GFS.

[Derek Ortt]

I beleive GFS did better with the evolution of Bill's environment. If I remember correctly, EC shifted everything to the east, while GFS had a weakness developing in the BH, letting it come far enough north to be picked up by the trough

[KWT]

No Derek the ECM constantly showed the weakness developing around 50-60W, the upper high moving off to the SW ad eroding from the Bermuda region then the next upper trough picking it up and kicking it out to sea. It was too far east at first thats for sure but it had that idea quite a bit before the GFS which was still busy plowing this one into The LA's.

Anyway this is a fresh new system so one model that did well with one system may not do nearly so good this time round!

[otowntiger]

I don't know, this one seems to already have a pretty definitive northerly component to its motion right now. Looks to be sliding northwest or maybe even more north than that. My guess is this one could very well miss every one again, save for possible Bermuda.

Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about necessarily, just what my amateur untrained eyes see right now. Refer to NHC for official news and information.

[deltadog03]

Here is the 12z NAM, I know its the NAM, but to be honest looks pretty close to most models at this point.







Also, if you run the loop of the nam, you can see whatever is out there almost moving due west at the end.