CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA (11E)

[HURAKAN]

22/0000 UTC 13.5N 134.5W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific

Remains at 2

[Kingarabian]

Very interesting pictures Hurakan as always. The models have this becoming a hurricane...

[HURAKAN]

The convection is now much stronger

[HURAKAN]

974
ABPZ20 KNHC 220538
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1070 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Kingarabian]

Whats keeping them from calling it a depression? I believe the winds are 30 kts.

[HURAKAN]

882
WHXX01 KMIA 220635
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0635 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090822 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090822 0600 090822 1800 090823 0600 090823 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 135.4W 14.0N 136.8W 14.4N 138.1W 14.8N 139.5W
BAMD 13.7N 135.4W 14.2N 137.5W 14.8N 139.6W 15.3N 141.7W
BAMM 13.7N 135.4W 14.2N 137.2W 14.8N 139.0W 15.1N 141.0W
LBAR 13.7N 135.4W 14.2N 137.4W 15.1N 139.6W 15.9N 141.9W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090824 0600 090825 0600 090826 0600 090827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 140.6W 15.2N 143.1W 14.9N 145.2W 14.6N 147.0W
BAMD 15.7N 143.8W 16.1N 148.3W 16.6N 152.3W 17.2N 156.0W
BAMM 15.5N 143.0W 15.4N 147.0W 14.9N 150.8W 14.2N 154.1W
LBAR 16.7N 144.1W 17.8N 148.2W 18.5N 151.5W 18.9N 154.4W
SHIP 46KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 46KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 135.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 133.8W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 132.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

06z:

EP, 92, 2009082206, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1354W, 30, 1008, DB

No depression at the moment

[HURAKAN]

22/0600 UTC 13.5N 135.2W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific

Still 2.0

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT. HOWEVER...ANY
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 221330
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII MOVED WEST AT NEAR 10 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. IF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AT ITS PRESENT
SPEED...IT PROBABLY WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922009_ep112009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908221426
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 112009.ren


We have TD 11-E.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 221444
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.9W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.9W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.7N 138.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.1N 139.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 141.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 142.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 15.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 136.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

1 KNHC 221455
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS MAINTAINED A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION COINCIDING WITH
THE DIURNAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM. HOWEVER...MORE RECENTLY A DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS PERSISTED FOR SOME TIME OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...EVEN PARTIALLY COVERING WHAT WAS EARLIER AN EXPOSED
CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...AN EXPANDING CIRRUS CANOPY IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTIVE OF A BETTER ESTABLISHED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
AND THERE HAS BEEN A FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THIS SYSTEM
CAN NOW BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BASED UPON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 2.0 AND AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON
A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND 72 HOURS
AND BEYOND...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NORTH OF HAWAII SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT
TO MOVE ON A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT BY SHOWING A SLOWER-MOVING CYCLONE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
PASS 140W AND ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY IN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...WHICH COULD LEAVE SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE AND INCREASES THE INTENSITY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ICON AND LGEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 13.6N 136.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 13.7N 138.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 14.1N 139.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.6N 141.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.0N 142.9W 40 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 15.5N 149.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA/READ

[Derek Ortt]

this may require half of the air force recon to head back to Hawaii

[Chacor]

Bill Read co-writing the discussion, interesting.

[cycloneye]

Hawaii better watch this one.

[HURAKAN]

TD 11-E needs to hurry if it wants to be called Hilda

[cycloneye]

If it forms into a TS after 140W it will be named NEKI.

[Chacor]

Been a while since we've had three named Central Pacific storms. The last time was 2002.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good in the visible

[Derek Ortt]

might get named in the EPAC