ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cycloneye]

Yes, I see it now at loop.I wonder why it dissipates it.

[ronjon]

The thing is though Nimbus the latest dynamic models seem to be suggesting there is going to be enough of a weakness to at give a lower risk to the central Caribbean now. Seems like the models are trending eastwards.

Still the models overdone the central Atlantic weakness with Td2, so no reason why they aren't overdoing this one as well, keep an eye on that.

No doubt KWT that the Euro is pointing toward a recurve scenario in the western Atlantic. It's been a stellar model in the long range so perhaps a little more than even money now on that track. But the only caveat (and it's a big one) is it's 10 days out.
Interesting that 90L in both GFDL and HWRF for 99Ls runs shows a much more southward track. Maybe because its weaker and not within the nested grid. A long time to watch this one - as always timing and forward speed will place important roles on track.

[KWT]

Hmmm I think the ECM is developing the same system as the GFS 06z run, in other words both aren't forming 90L..

I have a hard time thinking 90L will take about 102hrs to cross 40W but we shall see!

[KWT]

Of course the problem is Ronjon is the ECM is either way too slow with 90L (takes over 96hrs to cross 40W!!) or its not even developing 90l and forming the wave behind this system!

So therefore we need to be even more careful with the models when they are actually forming multiple systems.

Therefore its even possible this isn't the big one either that the models are developing.

[curtadams]

You have to be a little cautious about the model support. The models love to develop phantoms out of the monsoonal trough. Model support doesn't mean as much here as usual.

[KWT]

Even more so again curtadams when we aren't even sure the models are developing 90L afterall, the 06z GFS run now makes me think the ECM may be trying to develop the wave after 90L...

Still need one of those charts that go before 72hrs to see if thats the case.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

No teasers this time mother nature, we want something to track properly, PLEASE!!!

plenty in the Epac

[Fego]

Split the split... good morning everyone.

[Fego]

[jrpsuper123]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 16N NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AS WELL AS A 0746 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE GIVING EVIDENCE OF A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
21W-28W...AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 21W-26W. THERE IS A 30-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.[/size]

[KWT]

Forward speed is going to be so important in this set-up I suspect because the models suggest the high should remain strong for a little while yet before weakening between 72-144hrs and allowing the system to move more to the WNW.

So the key is whether this reaches 40W before 0z Sunday, if it does then the ECM is either too slow or forming another system...

[cyclonic chronic]

[cycloneye]

Loop of 90L and train of waves behind. It will be a slow proccess to develop because the wave is so big and has a broad low.

[tailgater]

Latest Quickscat

[KWT]

06z GFDL this off right away...no doubt thanks to what appears to be a very dodgy 06z GFS run.

We are going to have to wait till we get the 12z run, hopefully that doesn't develop a phantom storm like the 06z did.

[cyclonic chronic]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/32.html

[jrpsuper123]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

Got a pretty decent circulation there but it still needs a good deal more convection if its going to develop. Seems like it'll be a slow developer for now depsite what the SHIPS are suggesting, these big broad systems take a little while to tighten up.

[Gustywind]

Split the split... good morning everyone.

Hummm Fego don't like these paths, looks like a Dean's brother? Martinica , Dominica, Guadeloupe, Antigua in the zone? As we're far away from that, please let's wait and see what really happens during the next couple of days

[KWT]

Remember those models are not dynamic bar the UKMO and therefore they are only painting a picture of the current synoptic pattern and what would happen if things stayed static. The high is forecasted to start weakening a little by 96hrs which should allow it to lift up a little bit.

My worry is the models are once again overdoing it, just like they did with Td2 as well...though on the otherside by that time this should be a lot stronger then TD2 is at this moment.