CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO (10E)

[HURAKAN]

I knew that was why 91E disappeared from S2k map.

[cycloneye]

Special Advisory on new TD 10-E


000
WTPZ35 KNHC 121554
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
900 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

AT 900 AM PDT...1600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST OR ABOUT
675 MILES...1085 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 900 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.3N 116.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

KNHC 121554
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
1600 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 116.4W AT 12/1600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 116.4W AT 12/1600Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.0N 118.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.6N 120.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 126.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 116.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 121610
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
900 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 13Z INDICATES THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED. THE QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/14...BUT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
A LACK OF GOOD HISTORY ON THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT EASTERLY.
THIS WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ALONG THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND HWRF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW
AS MUCH DECAY AS SHIPS LATE IN THE PERIOD BECAUSE THAT MODEL WAS
BASED ON THE BAMM TRACK...WHICH LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1600Z 15.3N 116.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 118.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 16.6N 120.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 17.4N 126.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[hawaiigirl]

[CrazyC83]

Looking really good on that satellite, could be named at 2 pm?

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good on that satellite, could be named at 2 pm?

Waiting for the ATCF numbers to see if we have Guillermo.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 10, 2009081218, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1171W, 30, 1005, TD

Still TD 10-E

[HURAKAN]

130
WHXX01 KMIA 121953
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1953 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN (EP102009) 20090812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 1800 090813 0600 090813 1800 090814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 117.1W 16.6N 119.5W 17.4N 122.1W 18.2N 124.9W
BAMD 15.6N 117.1W 16.4N 119.7W 17.2N 122.2W 18.1N 124.8W
BAMM 15.6N 117.1W 16.4N 119.5W 17.1N 122.0W 18.0N 124.6W
LBAR 15.6N 117.1W 16.6N 120.0W 17.4N 123.1W 18.4N 126.1W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800 090817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 127.8W 19.8N 134.3W 20.8N 140.8W 22.0N 147.0W
BAMD 19.0N 127.4W 21.0N 132.5W 23.4N 137.0W 25.6N 138.4W
BAMM 18.9N 127.3W 20.6N 133.2W 22.4N 139.0W 24.0N 143.0W
LBAR 19.4N 129.2W 21.9N 134.6W 24.6N 137.7W 26.7N 138.2W
SHIP 54KTS 57KTS 49KTS 42KTS
DSHP 54KTS 57KTS 49KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 117.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 113.9W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 111.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

573
WTPZ45 KNHC 122038
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
200 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

THE DEPRESSION IS EXHIBITING GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE...ALBEIT AT A
LARGE RADIUS FROM THE CENTER...AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0
FROM SAB. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE...I AM
INCLINED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD NOT BE LONG BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK DROP BELOW 26C BY 72
HOURS...HOWEVER. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE SYSTEM AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/15. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE
STEERING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVING
WESTWARD WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 15.8N 117.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 16.5N 119.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 17.0N 122.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 17.5N 125.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.8N 128.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 19.0N 139.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


572
WTPZ35 KNHC 122038
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
200 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

...WELL-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION SHOULD BE A STORM SOON...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST OR ABOUT
710 MILES...1145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
STORM TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.8N 117.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

Another system for Hawaii to keep an eye on

[HurricaneRobert]

Beautiful structure. I think this could become a hurricane.

[clfenwi]

Amusing how the GFDL moves 10-E at a good pace while pushing 09-E more leisurely. The result being the two on a bit of a collision course towards the end of the forecast period.

End of the text product in hour/lat/long/heading/speed format.

10-E
126 17.7 145.7 251./13.9

9-E
126 14.1 143.9 285./ 6.1

[clfenwi]

13/0000 UTC 16.0N 118.5W T2.5/2.5 10E -- East Pacific

EP, 10, 2009081300, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1185W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 60, 1012, 175, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, M,

I would say Hola, but I don't want to Ana you, Senor cyclone.

[Macrocane]

13/0000 UTC 16.0N 118.5W T2.5/2.5 10E -- East Pacific

EP, 10, 2009081300, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1185W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 60, 1012, 175, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, M,

I would say Hola, but I don't want to Ana you, Senor cyclone.

Let's wait for the advisory to start calling him with the G name

[clfenwi]

I care not what the NRL says, you are Señor Cyclone to me until 0300Z (or thereabouts)!

[Crostorm]

[brunota2003]

It looks very pretty...no reason why this couldn't be a 35 or 40 knot TS right now.

[HURAKAN]

547
WTPZ45 KNHC 130242
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
CONSISTS OF WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED
PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES
OF 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE DEPRESSION
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KT. GUILLERMO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN SOME
STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR IN ABOUT
TWO TO THREE DAYS. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

GUILLERMO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND
PERHAPS BECOME EVEN MORE EASTERLY BEYOND THREE DAYS. GUILLERMO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A SMALL BEND TO THE
WEST DURING THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST
LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.2N 119.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 16.7N 121.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 17.1N 123.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 17.5N 126.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 18.5N 134.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 140.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 18.5N 147.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Macrocane]

Now I can say: Hello Guille

[bob rulz]

This has a beautiful structure for a minimal tropical storm.

It looks a lot more disorganized on the infrared though.