GOM: INVEST 90L

[gatorcane]

Which area was tagged an invest, SE GOM or the area in the Southern Bahamas/Northern Coast of Cuba?

Members may be confused at this point where the invest is at (including me)

Cuba .. since its the area that is most likely tropical ...

the area in the gulf was going to have to start as a non tropical or sub tropical .. which the non tropical would not get designated as an invest.

Thanks -- well that is the area I believed would have a chance and looks like its heading north into the Bahamas and east of Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Which area was tagged an invest, SE GOM or the area in the Southern Bahamas/Northern Coast of Cuba?

Members may be confused at this point where the invest is at (including me)

Cuba .. since its the area that is most likely tropical ...

the area in the gulf was going to have to start as a non tropical or sub tropical .. which the non tropical would not get designated as an invest.

Thanks -- well that is the area I believed would have a chance and looks like its heading north into the Bahamas and east of Florida.

well both areas are being watched .. just the Cuba low is tropical and the gulf in non to sub tropical .

[fci]

I believe 14 people (including me) guess Monday afternoon. Anyways, lets lock and load, its Hurricane season lol.

As one of the 14 I would like to propose that we split the prize evenly.

[gatorcane]

WV imagery shows that the highly amplified trough in the GOM that is likely going to scoop up 90L or its remnants and shunt it Northeastward.

and should 90L try to deepen (which it should not), it will get shunted Northeastward even faster. Looks like east of Florida all the way on this one.

For Florida the real weather we be from the cold front/trough that is pushing in at the moment, a rather winter-time setup still across the sunshine state.

[AnnularCane]

Welcome 90L!

What site do you use to find out if something is officially an invest or not? I've always used the Navy site but it's not up there yet, so I'm guessing you must be using another one.

[cycloneye]

SHIP shear forecast shows not a hostile shear by 72 hours.

Code: Select all

                  *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *     GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING         *
                    *      INVEST  AL902009  05/18/09  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    31    37    42    48    53    55    54    52    53    51    50
V (KT) LAND       25    28    31    37    42    48    53    55    39    31    28    27    27
V (KT) LGE mod    25    27    27    28    28    28    28    29    27    27    27    27    27

SHEAR (KTS)       29    28    39    32    27    35    34    22    10    16     7    17    13
SHEAR DIR        304   258   253   240   220   239   227   257   264   267   261   286   290
SST (C)         26.1  26.0  25.9  25.6  25.0  24.8  25.4  24.3  23.7  24.0  23.6  23.6  23.7
POT. INT. (KT)   115   114   113   111   106   103   109   101    96    97    94    93    94
ADJ. POT. INT.   104   104   103   101    95    91    96    89    85    85    81    81    81
200 MB T (C)   -56.1 -56.2 -56.9 -57.7 -56.9 -57.8 -58.4 -58.5 -58.6 -58.5 -58.0 -57.4 -56.9
TH_E DEV (C)       7     6     5     5     4     3     3     1     3     1     5     2     5
700-500 MB RH     61    64    69    71    73    71    58    51    56    58    59    56    59
GFS VTEX (KT)      5     7     8    12    13    15    16    17    13     9     8     8     8
850 MB ENV VOR     3    28    43    62    82    68    49    18    41    27    49    20    23
200 MB DIV        60    85    66    71   135    26    55    25     1     4    26    -4     8
LAND (KM)         92   207   322   444   490   426   284    81  -144  -177  -192  -180  -203
LAT (DEG N)     21.9  22.9  23.9  25.2  26.4  28.5  29.5  30.3  31.1  31.8  32.2  32.3  32.2
LONG(DEG W)     75.8  75.5  75.2  75.2  75.2  76.1  77.9  80.5  83.1  85.2  86.9  88.3  89.7
STM SPEED (KT)    10    10    12    12    12     9    11    12    11     8     7     6     6
HEAT CONTENT       0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):  0/ 11      CX,CY:   0/ 11
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  734  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   1.   5.   8.  11.  12.  13.  14.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   4.   3.   0.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -6.  -5.  -6.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       1.   2.   3.   4.   8.  12.  16.  19.  23.  26.  28.  29.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   3.   4.   6.   8.   8.   5.   2.   1.   1.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       3.   6.  12.  17.  23.  28.  30.  29.  27.  28.  26.  25.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   6.  12.  17.  23.  28.  30.  29.  27.  28.  26.  25.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009     INVEST 05/18/09  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  31.0 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  83.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  76.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  72.6 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   0.0 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902009     INVEST 05/18/09  18 UTC         ##
   ##         ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING


[RL3AO]

Welcome 90L!

What site do you use to find out if something is officially an invest or not? I've always used the Navy site but it's not up there yet, so I'm guessing you must be using another one.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[TropicalWXMA]

Quick question, how do you decode the INVEST message?

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Aric Dunn]

WV imagery shows that the highly amplified trough in the GOM that is likely going to scoop up 90L or its remnants and shunt it Northeastward.

and should 90L try to deepen (which it should not), it will get shunted Northeastward even faster. Looks like east of Florida all the way on this one.

For Florida the real weather we be from the cold front/trough that is pushing in at the moment, a rather winter-time setup still across the sunshine state.

unlikely .. the trough is washing out and all the energy is pulling away to the north... a NW motion should continue with a turn to the north then back wnw to west as the ridge builds in and the low in the gulf interacts with it.. its a very complex situation..

[Ivanhater]

WV imagery shows that the highly amplified trough in the GOM that is likely going to scoop up 90L or its remnants and shunt it Northeastward.

and should 90L try to deepen (which it should not), it will get shunted Northeastward even faster. Looks like east of Florida all the way on this one.

For Florida the real weather we be from the cold front/trough that is pushing in at the moment, a rather winter-time setup still across the sunshine state.

Most of the models now develop the low around the Florida straits and move it to SE Louisiana

[RL3AO]

AL, 90, 2009051818, , BEST, 0, 219N, 758W, 25, 1010, DB,

Group by group

AL = Atlantic
90 = Invest 90
2009051818 = May 18 2009, 18z
BEST = Best track
0 = Not sure
219N = Centered at 21.9N
758W = Centered at 75.8W
25 = Wind are 25 knots
1010 = pressure is 1010 mb
DB = its a disturbance

The rest of it has to do with how far out 34kt, 50kt, and 74kt winds go out, which in this case is 0.

[Derek Ortt]

this is not going to the NE

it should swing back to the west around the northern edge of the GOM system

[TropicalWXMA]

Thanks a lot buddy! I had no idea where to begin on that one haha.

AL, 90, 2009051818, , BEST, 0, 219N, 758W, 25, 1010, DB,

Group by group

AL = Atlantic
90 = Invest 90
2009051818 = May 18 2009, 18z
BEST = Best track
0 = Not sure
219N = Centered at 21.9N
758W = Centered at 75.8W
25 = Wind are 25 knots
1010 = pressure is 1010 mb
DB = its a disturbance

The rest of it has to do with how far out 34kt, 50kt, and 74kt winds go out, which in this case is 0.

[KWT]

Most models though Aric do suggest that any system would have developed further west, so this is a bit further east then they expected I believe from the limited stuff I have seen...but you do seem right about the track idea overall.

[gatorcane]

this is not going to the NE

it should swing back to the west around the northern edge of the GOM system

The GFS could have it correct, NE into an area about a couple of hundred miles north of the Bahamas and then a bend back to the west in about 5 days from now, but not becoming a depression at any point during this time.

[ronjon]

12Z Euro sticking to its guns in the GOM.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006040500!!/

[cycloneye]

As its now a invest we will have two more models to look at,GFDL and HWRF.

[gatorcane]

As its now a invest we will have two more models to look at,GFDL and HWRF.

Yes good point. These are two excellent models in my opinion. Look for these runs here:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Also note the last dates these models were run

[cycloneye]

As its now a invest we will have two more models to look at,GFDL and HWRF.

[bahamaswx]

Sure is a rainy/windy day here. Wind from the SE though; not even close to having anything on the surface yet.