ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[wxman57]

You shouldn't look at that graphic and assume that it means a hit for the islands. It simply means that the ridge is very strong and for the next 24 hours or so, a more westward heading is likely. That alone will take it closer to the islands before the next weakness occurs.

True, that's just a map with CURRENT steering flow. I'm looking at the projected flow for 24-48 hours and it changes significantly. Ridge to the north of Bill weakens significantly tomorrow afternoon as the high off the SE U.S. weakens and moves southwestward.

[KWT]

Will be very interesting to see if that occurs Wxman57, or at least as progressivly as the models suggest. I still think odds of a NE threat are fairly low though they are there, chances increases as you head more NE.

Still no storm that was near 11N and 35W has totally missed land so history tells us that odds are this will probably hit at least Newfoundland on the way through more then likely.

[weatherSnoop]

Does anyone know where we can find the latest microwave imagery? I'm really curious to get a good look at the inner structure.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_03.html

Not sure if this was what you are looking for, FWIW

[lonelymike]

Bill looks like its gunning for Bermuda and the Maritimes.

[deltadog03]

Now, as you can see, GFS tomorrow night 00z has the ridge starting to break down quite a bit (as wxman said) So, that is the current steering map, and well we shall see.

[cpdaman]

You shouldn't look at that graphic and assume that it means a hit for the islands. It simply means that the ridge is very strong and for the next 24 hours or so, a more westward heading is likely. That alone will take it closer to the islands before the next weakness occurs.

True, that's just a map with CURRENT steering flow. I'm looking at the projected flow for 24-48 hours and it changes significantly. Ridge to the north of Bill weakens significantly tomorrow afternoon as the high off the SE U.S. weakens and moves southwestward.

thanks WXMAN that comment was like a nice stiff drink to help relax people in the island a bit

what you are talking about regarding the ridge to the north breaking down seems to match what the accuweaher vid i just watched showed......

do you think that watching the Direction of the cirrus on bill's N side on the WV loops helps shows the weaknesses location accurately.....

[I-wall]

Does anyone know where we can find the latest microwave imagery? I'm really curious to get a good look at the inner structure.

don't know if this is what you are looking for or not -

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

That's not it, but that was nice info. Bill looked very impressive in that loop. Thanks

[Normandy]

Regardless of Bill's track, one thing is for certain is the fact that it is going to be one of the strongest storms of the season (probably the largest and strongest). It looks like its about to open up a very large eye, and it has great upper level conditions ahead of it with an upper anticyclone building over it.

[Blown Away]

Is it safe to say the from S.C. south to Florida is out of the woods with Bill!!

[Stephanie]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
anyone else having problems with the above link running animations/loops today?
Anyone have the backup site info? Lost the link. Thanks in advance

The above link is working for me.

[artist]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
anyone else having problems with the above link running animations/loops today?
Anyone have the backup site info? Lost the link. Thanks in advance

The above link is working for me.

thanks Stephanie, it does for me but the loop keeps showing an error opening.

[KWT]

Oh certainly Normandy, I doubt a system will get this good conditions again this season, its really impressive and probably is going to get into the cat-4 range I'd guess. If it really bombs in the next 24hrs can't totally even rule out cat-5 though they are exceptionally rare in this part of the Atlantic and odds would still have to be very small.

Recon will certainly be interesting to observe, I'm guessing they will find a pretty impressive hurricane.

[Stephanie]

I didn't see that message when I ran it. Maybe I just didn't notice it.

[cycloneye]

Finnally eye is opening.

[CronkPSU]

Is it safe to say the from S.C. south to Florida is out of the woods with Bill!!

not yet...but unless it doesn't pick up any latitude overnight, I would say the NHC is pretty close to making the all clear sound for those of us below Myrtle Beach

[KWT]

Ah very interesting, indeed does look like an eye is opening up. I think the NHC will probably upgrade this to a category-2 tonight. Very pretty hurricane I have to say!

[Nimbus]

There is an upper level circulation that looks like a low centered near Cuba rolling west. I would think a ridge would follow that and then Bill would be embedded in the ridge. If Bills westerly component slows a little it will give more time for a trough or weakness to dig.

[lonelymike]

chances still favor east of NC

however, chances of a fish are not that good right now

I'm assuming you're talking about Bermuda and the Maritimes?

[Macrocane]

Bill reminds me to Ike, big hurricane, lower than normal pressure and dry air wrapping around the center. I've seen SAL and water vapor imagery and it seems that there is very dry air ahead for Bill, could it slow down intensification in a significant way? what do you think?

[rrm]

any chance bill enters the gom?