ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Stormcenter]

The trough is not going to miss Bill.

[x-y-no]

looking at the large scale features on the HWRF, at 120 and beyond...does this not look like the trough misses...center of the trough is at the same lat as the storm at the end of the frame and the storm has no E component in the direction...

Do you know if there's any place one can get upper air data from the HWRF and GFDL? I'd like to know exactly where it thinks the trough is at the 500mb level ...


Of some relevance, the HPC extended forecast discussion talks about the operational GFS being too deep with that trough.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC BAM Models

Even the Bams have shifted a little west in the first 72 hours.

WHXX01 KWBC 171849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC MON AUG 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090817 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090817 1800 090818 0600 090818 1800 090819 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 46.0W 15.3N 48.7W 16.3N 51.2W 17.4N 53.6W
BAMD 14.4N 46.0W 15.3N 48.7W 16.2N 51.2W 17.1N 53.5W
BAMM 14.4N 46.0W 15.4N 48.7W 16.4N 51.2W 17.4N 53.4W
LBAR 14.4N 46.0W 15.2N 48.9W 16.1N 52.1W 16.9N 55.2W
SHIP 80KTS 89KTS 95KTS 101KTS
DSHP 80KTS 89KTS 95KTS 101KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090819 1800 090820 1800 090821 1800 090822 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 56.2W 21.9N 61.6W 25.4N 65.8W 29.7N 67.2W
BAMD 18.2N 55.7W 21.1N 60.0W 25.3N 63.8W 30.3N 65.4W
BAMM 18.7N 55.9W 21.7N 60.7W 25.5N 64.6W 30.2N 65.9W
LBAR 17.7N 58.3W 20.0N 64.0W 23.2N 67.8W 27.9N 68.9W
SHIP 105KTS 105KTS 102KTS 98KTS
DSHP 105KTS 105KTS 102KTS 98KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 46.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 43.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 39.4W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 969MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 395NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 105NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 125NM

[Thunder44]

looking at the large scale features on the HWRF, at 120 and beyond...does this not look like the trough misses...center of the trough is at the same lat as the storm at the end of the frame and the storm has no E component in the direction...

Do you know if there's any place one can get upper air data from the HWRF and GFDL? I'd like to know exactly where it thinks the trough is at the 500mb level ...


Of some relevance, the HPC extended forecast discussion talks about the operational GFS being too deep with that trough.

You can see upper levels on the NCEP site. Look down below for "Hurricane Graphics":

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[Frank2]

The 18Z model runs are very consistent - a classic recurve forecast, if there ever was one...

Frank

P.S. Hard to believe that 25 years ago we'd use colored pencils to plot the same maps...

[deltadog03]

hmmmmm

[cycloneye]

The tight clustered model guidance that was in past runs is breaking as the west shifts are shown.

[Stormcenter]

Exactly.

The models are "consistently" showing a curve out to sea.

The 18Z models are very consistent - a classic recurve forecast, if there ever was one...

Frank

[Frank2]

Well, it'll give some of the folks here something to look at for a day or two, until the trough sets up...

Frank

[x-y-no]

looking at the large scale features on the HWRF, at 120 and beyond...does this not look like the trough misses...center of the trough is at the same lat as the storm at the end of the frame and the storm has no E component in the direction...

Do you know if there's any place one can get upper air data from the HWRF and GFDL? I'd like to know exactly where it thinks the trough is at the 500mb level ...


Of some relevance, the HPC extended forecast discussion talks about the operational GFS being too deep with that trough.

You can see upper levels on the NCEP site. Look down below for "Hurricane Graphics":

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Heh ... Thanks! Can you believe ... I use that page all the time for the GFS but must never have scrolled down to looks at what all else is there ...

Creature of habit, I guess.

[Stormcenter]

I don't think anyone should expect them to be clustered together
this far out anyway. They always will be differences to some extent but they
all generally show a curve out to sea. Some are just a little further west then others.
It all depends on which model you trust more.

The tight clustered model guidance that was in past runs is breaking as the west shifts are shown.

[JTD]

Exactly.

The models are "consistently" showing a curve out to sea.

The 18Z models are very consistent - a classic recurve forecast, if there ever was one...

Frank

Frank2 and Stormcenter,

One cannot deny that the models have engaged in a western shift this afternoon. How significant this is, one cannot say, but it is definitely noteworthy.

[JTD]

Well, it'll give some of the folks here something to look at for a day or two, until the trough sets up...

Frank

Frank,

Why are you so confident at this point that this will turn out to sea and threaten no one?

[deltadog03]

I am not sure if this will get back to the coast. The way the summer has gone with a predominant trof in the east tells me that this should** safely clear the the US. I obviously can't say that for sure, but my gut tells me that the trof will be a pretty big one.

[x-y-no]

OK ... so here's the 500mb 126 hour frame of the 12z HWRF:



There is a bit of a trough axis extending down in the vicinity of the Appalachian chain, but frankly this looks like touch and go as far as turning Bill east of north ...

I'd guess that this run would be offshore of the US northeast, but just barely so.

[The Eye Wall]

I am not sure if this will get back to the coast. The way the summer has gone with a predominant trof in the east tells me that this should** safely clear the the US. I obviously can't say that for sure, but my gut tells me that the trof will be a pretty big one.

Off topic, I hope that same trough brings shot after shot after shot of ARCTIC, I MEAN ARCTIC, air, baby to Texas this winter. Texas is burnt to a crisp and I officially call it the "Roast Star State." Makes me sick.

[Sanibel]

[CrazyC83]

Based on that data, the pressure is probably 969mb right now.

[ronjon]

x-y-no, that trough is neither as sharp or progressive as previous runs. Must be the reason that the models are pushing west at 12Z.

[vacanechaser]

Well, it'll give some of the folks here something to look at for a day or two, until the trough sets up...

Frank

Frank,

Why are you so confident at this point that this will turn out to sea and threaten no one?

because he knows it gets people upset!!

this is part of what watkins said last night about the models... will be watching this closely... certain the nogaps caught my eye!!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team