ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cycloneye]

Some early info is that the 12z euro is further west through hour 96.

How much closer to the islands?

[deltadog03]

From what one of my friends is telling me is that the new euro is around 30N and 67ish W So, not quite as far W as the gfdl or the hwrf, but def. further west than last nights 00z run.

This is hour 108 BTW

[deltadog03]

Some early info is that the 12z euro is further west through hour 96.

How much closer to the islands?

Luis, from what I gather, its around 2 to 2.5 degrees further west. I will have to see for sure.

[Blown Away]

Next advisory should be through the Hebert Box.

[The Eye Wall]

Bill is going to have to rid himself of the dryair near the CDO. If he can do that, I don't see any reason why we won't have a Cat. 3 by 11 pm...especially at the rate we're seeing the pressure drop.

Once Bill develops a well pronounced eye, we're going to have to watch for these dark areas to show up in the CDO. This time it won't be dry air, but a moat (an area of subsidence just outside the eyewall). This is indicative of an EWRC.

[drezee]

buoy recorded 972 pressure with 27kt 10-min average wind...pressure may be in the 960s (RoT, pressure minus (knots/10))

[sevenleft]

Pressure bottomed out at 972mb at buoy 41041. Buoy is now passing through the eastern or southeastern eyewall (or eyewall feature).

[Skyhawk]

Bill apparently passed north of buoy 41041 at 1708Z. Minimum pressure was 28.71 in last advisory pressure was 977mb (28.85). Highest wind prior to passage was 50.3 kts.

[x-y-no]

Bill's eye has passed north of buoy 41041 (14.357 N 46.008 W )

Code: Select all

Time  wind dir               wind speed
1750   SSW ( 195 deg )    17.7 m/s
1740   SSW ( 207 deg )    19.1 m/s
1730   SW ( 228 deg )    17.2 m/s
1720   W ( 264 deg )    12.7 m/s
1710   NNW ( 335 deg )    14.6 m/s
1700   N ( 350 deg )    22.6 m/s


[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

Shouldn't Bill be slowing if he's going to make the first bend?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Wouldn't that be interesting if the NY City hit occurred this year... despite the otherwise "slow" season many were pointing out just a week ago. That would show that just one storm is all it takes to make a memorable season.

They recently did a special on the Science channel about that being one of the big disasters that could happen one day.

Bill could be the one if this west trending continues.

I wouldn't let my guard down if I lived in NC either.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Dont believe the models further than 4 days out. This thing will track more and more west and the models will adjust.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


*Edited by southerngale to add the disclaimer. You need to use it when making such matter of fact statements.

[tolakram]

Dont believe the models further than 4 days out. This thing will track more and more west and the models will adjust.

You shouldn't make statements you can't backup, but that's an opinion.

You should not make statements like that without the proper disclaimer. :|

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Dont believe the models further than 4 days out. This thing will track more and more west and the models will adjust.

You shouldn't make statements you can't backup, but that's an opinion.

You should not make statements like that without the proper disclaimer. :|

Really? Go back 3 pages where I stated what happened today before this run. this thing isnt clear from CONUS by a long shot. Anybody looking at model consenses 10 days out isnt very smart. a DISCLAIMER? for something in the middle of the atlantic?

[x-y-no]

Dont believe the models further than 4 days out. This thing will track more and more west and the models will adjust.

You shouldn't make statements you can't backup, but that's an opinion.

You should not make statements like that without the proper disclaimer. :|

Really? Go back 3 pages where I stated what happened today. Anybody looking at model consenses 10 days out isnt very smart

If you had said "anybody taking the model consensus 10 day out as definitive" I could agree with you. But looking that far out isn't a pointless exercise at all.

[drezee]

looking at the large scale features on the HWRF, at 120 and beyond...does this not look like the trough misses...center of the trough is at the same lat as the storm at the end of the frame and the storm has no E component in the direction...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Let me rephrase it. Anybody boarding up there house and evacuating because of a 10 day model concensus isnt very smart. Hence no disclaimer needed

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS joins the west shift

NOGAPS says hello to Carolinas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Thunder44]

12z/17 UKMET out to 144hrs:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHE ... kloop.html

[Blown Away]

Seems like a tight window for the trough to catch Bill. The Nogaps is getting way to close for comfort. Getting interesting!