EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

RattleMan · #181 Postby **RattleMan** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:12 pm

HURRICANE RICK TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
310 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...RICK BECOMES A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260 KM/HR.

#182 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:13 pm

No real surprise there. Might even be a bit stronger.

Pressure guess is 922mb.

#183 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:20 pm

I dont know if its a record for the most rapid intensifying system but starting as invest at 9:00 AM EDT on thursday to 6:10 PM EDT on Saturday reaching cat 5 must be a record.

#184 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:22 pm

ADT now supports 145 kt, raw and adjusted estimates suggest a trend towards as high as 155 kt.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 14:45:57 N Lon : 104:48:36 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 920.9mb/143.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.1 7.4 7.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +17.3C Cloud Region Temp : -75.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

#185 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:I dont know if its a record for the most rapid intensifying system but starting as invest at 9:00 AM EDT on thursday to 6:10 PM EDT on Saturday reaching cat 5 must be a record.

Has to be pretty close to a record. 72 hours ago, this was not even an organized cloud mass. Now it is a monster hurricane.

#186 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:24 pm

WOW. Very nice storm. Hope it doesnt make serious damage. But I have to admit, I love watching these.

#187 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:25 pm

#188 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:27 pm

Now that has the "cat 5" look. Beautiful storm.

I hope it dies a quick death before hitting Mexico.

#189 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:27 pm

If only there was Recon stationed off southern Mexico or Central America...

It looks a lot like Typhoon Melor did near its peak, although it may still have some strengthening to go.

Squarethecircle · #190 Postby **Squarethecircle** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:29 pm

Linda was made a category 5 hurricane on the 11th advisory, FWIW.

Technically if Linda wasn't upgraded on a special advisory then Rick would have the record.

#191 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:32 pm

A reminder that the very initial phase of this system was eastsoutheast of the Windward Islands as that wave was tagged as invest 92L.Later it moved along the Southamerican coast emerging in the EPAC and here we are.

#192 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:35 pm

Not a lot of words to describe Rick

#193 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:39 pm

srainhoutx wrote:

hey srainhoutex, where did you get that image? Just spectacular.

#194 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:39 pm

If that grey area completely surrounds the eye, then Linda's record may be in jeopardy.

#195 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:A reminder that the very initial phase of this system was eastsoutheast of the Windward Islands as that wave was tagged as invest 92L.Later it moved along the Southamerican coast emerging in the EPAC and here we are.

Good reminder cycloneye. This vortex has shown much tenacity throughout it's travels.

#196 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:41 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Macrocane wrote:If this is not upgraded on the next advisory to a cat 5 then we will have to wait for re-analysis because it surely looks perfect (Jimena may be upgraded too).

Barring a special advisory (very possible), the next advisory is a bit over 5 hours away.

If they analyze it at T7.5 at the next estimate, then a special advisory is a given for sure.

Very, very nice call.

#197 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:41 pm

What about a much closer view of that eye.

Macrocane · #198 Postby **Macrocane** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:43 pm

Extremely beautiful and dangerous storm. Cat 5 on EPAC/CPAC typically of El Niño years since 1994.

#199 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:44 pm

That eye is just spectacular. Classic stadium effect there. STILL rising with a bit to go.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 14:47:50 N Lon : 104:54:49 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 917.9mb/146.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.2 7.4 7.4

#200 Postby **MGC** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:05 pm

Sure am glad Rick is not in the GOM.....this is the way I like cat-5 hurricanes....out at sea. Just goes to show how quickly a system can develope under ideal contitions......MGC

EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - UPDATE : 160 mph - Cat 5

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