WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[cycloneye]

Derek,what do you see in terms of interaction between the two typhoons?

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection affecting the eastern Philippines

[oaba09]

So, where is this thing gonna make a landfall.......I live in the National Capital Region of the country(the area that was flooded by ketsana).....We're really nervous right now cause we haven't recovered from ketsana yet.......I'm seeing lots of different possible trajectories and it's quite confusing...

[Derek Ortt]

probably a stall after striking the philippines. Possibly over the water just north of the islands

[Derek Ortt]

MM5 did capture the open eyewall that has developed today. However, it shows landfall as a very strong cyclone

[Ptarmigan]

Philippines needs to brace for Parma.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 578
WTPQ51 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 13.1N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 15.7N 125.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 031200UTC 17.5N 123.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 041200UTC 18.7N 122.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 051200UTC 19.7N 122.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 061200UTC 20.7N 122.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't look as organized as it did yesterday but we need to remember that the winds are not the problem, the rains could cause a calamity if the Philippine government doesn't act quickly.

[P.K.]

CMA (Below) pretty similar intensity wise towards the end of the forecast when taking into account the different wind averaging periods. However the CMA do expect it to intensify a little in the next day or so.

WTPQ21 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 13.9N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 16.3N 125.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 031800UTC 18.4N 122.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 041800UTC 19.1N 121.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

WTPQ20 BABJ 011800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPER TY PARMA 0917 (0917) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC
00HR 14.0N 127.3E 935HPA 52M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 16.3N 124.2E 925HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 17.5N 123.0E 925HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 18.8N 122.1E 940HPA 50M/S
P+96HR 19.3N 120.4E 940HPA 50M/S=

[cycloneye]

Phillppines braces for Parma

CNN) -- Days after one storm left hundreds dead and most of Manila under water, the Philippines was bracing itself Thursday for the impact of a super typhoon gathering pace in the western Pacific.

The storm was upgraded to a super typhoon Thursday as it churned towards the island nation with winds of 240 kph (150 mph). The storm was about 600 miles (965 km) southeast of Manila, the Philippines' capital on Thursday afternoon.

The five-day tracking map shows the storm south of Taiwan on Monday.

Parma comes on the heels of Typhoon Ketsana, which left at least 246 people dead as it passed over the Philippines over the weekend. An additional 38 were still missing, the National Disaster Coordinating Council said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiap ... index.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

WTPN33 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.7N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.4N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.8N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 126.7E.
TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG
ITS WESTERN FLANK INTERACTED WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS. TY 19W REMAINS A VERY STRONG TYPHOON AT 120 KNOTS, BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FROM A 011741Z
AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS. TYPHOON PARMA IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRAJECTORY UP TO TAU 72. DURING THIS
PERIOD, TY 19W WILL WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTHERN LUZON BEFORE IT
REEMERGES IN THE LUZON STRAIT. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND PLACES THE SYSTEM IN A COL AREA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH GFS AND WBAR
STEERING THE VORTEX SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
PACK TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS FORECAST GOES WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION
ALBEIT AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND
022100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Typhoon10]

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tc_up.html

PAGASA has it going across Northern Philippines towards Hong Kong!

[StormingB81]

I have seen like 4 Different Tracks from 4 Different agencies. Who will be correct? I think it will turn to HK and Melor will slam Okinawa.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 734
WTPQ21 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 14.0N 127.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 16.3N 124.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 031800UTC 18.4N 122.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 041800UTC 19.1N 121.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[supercane]

From their outflows it looks like Parma and Melor are affecting one another. A Fujiwhara effect would send Parma further south into the Philippines, would it not?

Currently Parma and Melor are approximately 2600 km away from each other. This is currently too far away for a Fujiwhara effect. Excerpt from COMET's Tropical Meteorology textbook Fujiwhara effect subsection ,

Binary interactions (large angular rotation rates) occurred when the tropical cyclone centers were separated by distances of less than 1300-1400 km, with this critical separation distance depending on the sizes of the interacting systems.

(free registration required, but lots of good stuff on lots of weather topics)

Another site for information is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting noting a 1500 km threshold.

supercane

added additional reference

[HURAKAN]

Multi-agency track

[CrazyC83]

Better hope the Hong Kong track is right, for the sake of the poor Filipinos...

[HURAKAN]

Latest