WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
JMA extra long range Guidance still predicts Choi-wan to be a 50 something knot Severe Tropical Storm in 132 hours
FXPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
PSTN 151200UTC 17.9N 145.0E
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=006 18.0N 143.5E +007HPA -032KT
T=012 18.1N 142.9E +010HPA -032KT
T=018 18.8N 142.2E +010HPA -035KT
T=024 19.5N 141.3E +014HPA -037KT
T=030 20.1N 140.3E +013HPA -039KT
T=036 20.7N 139.5E +015HPA -040KT
T=042 21.4N 138.9E +014HPA -042KT
T=048 22.1N 138.4E +016HPA -042KT
T=054 22.8N 138.0E +014HPA -042KT
T=060 23.7N 137.8E +016HPA -041KT
T=066 24.6N 137.9E +014HPA -041KT
T=072 25.6N 138.2E +014HPA -040KT
T=078 26.9N 138.9E +013HPA -040KT
T=084 28.3N 139.8E +013HPA -039KT
T=090 30.1N 141.0E +011HPA -040KT
T=096 31.8N 142.2E +011HPA -040KT
T=102 33.7N 143.3E +009HPA -039KT
T=108 35.2N 144.3E +008HPA -036KT
T=114 36.4N 145.4E +008HPA -037KT
T=120 37.2N 146.6E +012HPA -043KT
T=126 38.3N 148.2E +015HPA -048KT
T=132 39.5N 149.7E +019HPA -053KT=
FXPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
PSTN 151200UTC 17.9N 145.0E
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=006 18.0N 143.5E +007HPA -032KT
T=012 18.1N 142.9E +010HPA -032KT
T=018 18.8N 142.2E +010HPA -035KT
T=024 19.5N 141.3E +014HPA -037KT
T=030 20.1N 140.3E +013HPA -039KT
T=036 20.7N 139.5E +015HPA -040KT
T=042 21.4N 138.9E +014HPA -042KT
T=048 22.1N 138.4E +016HPA -042KT
T=054 22.8N 138.0E +014HPA -042KT
T=060 23.7N 137.8E +016HPA -041KT
T=066 24.6N 137.9E +014HPA -041KT
T=072 25.6N 138.2E +014HPA -040KT
T=078 26.9N 138.9E +013HPA -040KT
T=084 28.3N 139.8E +013HPA -039KT
T=090 30.1N 141.0E +011HPA -040KT
T=096 31.8N 142.2E +011HPA -040KT
T=102 33.7N 143.3E +009HPA -039KT
T=108 35.2N 144.3E +008HPA -036KT
T=114 36.4N 145.4E +008HPA -037KT
T=120 37.2N 146.6E +012HPA -043KT
T=126 38.3N 148.2E +015HPA -048KT
T=132 39.5N 149.7E +019HPA -053KT=
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
oh yeah and...
[b]WTPQ31 PGUM 151526
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
200 AM CHST WED SEP 16 2009
...SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE
MARIANAS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAIPAN IS CANCELLED AS OF 2 AM CHST.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 80 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN AND
225 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN.
SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. A SLIGHT
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 155 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES FROM THE CENTER. SUPER TYPHOON
CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...REACHING PEAK INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 144.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 8 AM CHST.
$$
WILLIAMS/MUNDELL
[/b]
[b]WTPQ31 PGUM 151526
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
200 AM CHST WED SEP 16 2009
...SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE
MARIANAS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAIPAN IS CANCELLED AS OF 2 AM CHST.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 80 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN AND
225 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN.
SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. A SLIGHT
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 155 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES FROM THE CENTER. SUPER TYPHOON
CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...REACHING PEAK INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 144.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 8 AM CHST.
$$
WILLIAMS/MUNDELL
[/b]
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
yes, I know I am getting annoying, but I just happened to see this:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
830 AM CHST SAT SEP 12 2009
GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-130000-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
830 AM CHST SAT SEP 12 2009
...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADED TOWARD THE MARIANAS...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR 14N153E IS STEADILY DEVELOPING AND MAY INTENSIFY
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. APPARENT
MOVEMENT AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 10 MPH TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 MPH.
WEATHER FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
MOVING WEST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS TOWARD THE CNMI. SINCE THIS IS
NEAR THE PEAK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO BE WARY OF THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE AND CLOSELY MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WEAK DISTURBANCES CAN QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING LATE SUMMER
OR EARLY FALL IN THIS PART OF THE PACIFIC CALLED TYPHOON ALLEY.
IT HAS BEEN SEVERAL YEARS SINCE THE MARIANAS HAVE BEEN THREATENED BY
A TYPHOON. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR PREPAREDNESS PROCEDURES
AND RESTOCK YOUR TYPHOON EMERGENCY KITS WELL BEFORE A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH OR WARNING IS DECLARED.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.
$$
MUNDELL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
830 AM CHST SAT SEP 12 2009
GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-130000-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
830 AM CHST SAT SEP 12 2009
...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADED TOWARD THE MARIANAS...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR 14N153E IS STEADILY DEVELOPING AND MAY INTENSIFY
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. APPARENT
MOVEMENT AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 10 MPH TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 MPH.
WEATHER FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
MOVING WEST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS TOWARD THE CNMI. SINCE THIS IS
NEAR THE PEAK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO BE WARY OF THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE AND CLOSELY MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WEAK DISTURBANCES CAN QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING LATE SUMMER
OR EARLY FALL IN THIS PART OF THE PACIFIC CALLED TYPHOON ALLEY.
IT HAS BEEN SEVERAL YEARS SINCE THE MARIANAS HAVE BEEN THREATENED BY
A TYPHOON. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR PREPAREDNESS PROCEDURES
AND RESTOCK YOUR TYPHOON EMERGENCY KITS WELL BEFORE A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH OR WARNING IS DECLARED.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.
$$
MUNDELL
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 144.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 144.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.4N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.9N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.7N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.6N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.1N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 41.6N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 143.9E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-
WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE, WELL ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED
EYE. A 151602Z AQUA IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYE-WALL WITH
BANDING EXTENDING RADIALLY FROM THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST AND EQUATORWARD. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. STY
15W WILL START TO RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR
AROUND TAU 48 AND WILL START TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. ALONG TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72 HAS BEEN INCREASED SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 144.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 144.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.4N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.9N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.7N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.6N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.1N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 41.6N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 143.9E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-
WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE, WELL ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED
EYE. A 151602Z AQUA IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYE-WALL WITH
BANDING EXTENDING RADIALLY FROM THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST AND EQUATORWARD. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. STY
15W WILL START TO RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR
AROUND TAU 48 AND WILL START TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. ALONG TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72 HAS BEEN INCREASED SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
NNNN
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Absolutely amazing. What a beautiful cyclone it is.Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
That pic is worthy of pin-up! That's about as cool as the classic Isabel!
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StormingB81
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
Quite an impressive typhoon. Got to be the most intense this year.
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bombarderoazul
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
I like the sound of that, "super typhoon" they should have something similar here in the EPAC and atlantic, it makes the storm sound more menacing. I also like the sound of "super cyclonic storm" used in the north indian ocean.
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
bombarderoazul wrote:I like the sound of that, "super typhoon" they should have something similar here in the EPAC and atlantic, it makes the storm sound more menacing. I also like the sound of "super cyclonic storm" used in the north indian ocean.
Yes I like to use the terms too.
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
Hopefully it will follow the forecasted track and stay well east of Japan.
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StormingB81
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