ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[HURAKAN]

To me all this looks fishy!

[caribepr]

Yes, Luis, it will be interesting to watch it and NOT worry about it! What a strange feeling

[floridasun78]

i see this td7 not going were alot you are saying td7 going have supprise for few of you even mets post here keep eye on td7

[cycloneye]

TD 7 has a nice anticyclone over it.

[fci]

i see this td7 not going were alot you are saying td7 going have supprise for few of you even mets post here keep eye on td7

I think I can safely say that there will not be any surprises from TD7.

All we can do is watch mother nature build what is likely to be Fred and watch him churn away as a fish.
And that will be no surprise..

[Gustywind]

:D Looks like a fish given the first models tracks...so very good news for us in the islands. Hope this fishy trend will continue during the next couple of days, whereas as usual we could keep a small eye on TD 7 or maybe Fred?! ( tonight. ).

That is also good news for those of us in the CONUS.

Absolutely my friend, you're usually we're more concerned first that's why i don't even mentionned CONUS but that does not mean that we have forget you!
FISHY FRED?

[CourierPR]

I will continue to monitor the models just for the halibut.

[jinftl]

Nothing will be more surprising than the fact this will quite likely be the 6th named storm in less than 30 days.....not bad for a dud season.

i see this td7 not going were alot you are saying td7 going have supprise for few of you even mets post here keep eye on td7

I think I can safely say that there will not be any surprises from TD7.

All we can do is watch mother nature build what is likely to be Fred and watch him churn away as a fish.
And that will be no surprise..

[artist]

gusty, don't worry, we all do really think of you all there in the islands.

[cycloneye]

Dvorak T Numbers.The 5 PM position was 12.5N so it has confirmed what my eyes see of a more south track.But eventually its the same track down the road going to open Atlantic.

07/2345 UTC 12.0N 25.5W T2.0/2.0 07L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[fci]

Nothing will be more surprising than the fact this will quite likely be the 6th named storm in less than 30 days.....not bad for a dud season.

i see this td7 not going were alot you are saying td7 going have supprise for few of you even mets post here keep eye on td7

I think I can safely say that there will not be any surprises from TD7.

All we can do is watch mother nature build what is likely to be Fred and watch him churn away as a fish.
And that will be no surprise..

We are reaching the peak of the season so 6 storms in less than 30 days is not at all surprising to me.
A few more in the next few weeks would also not be unexpected, to me.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Still TD 7.

AL, 07, 2009090800, , BEST, 0, 124N, 253W, 30, 1004, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[CrazyC83]

Doesn't look like a TS at this point.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Bam Models

WHXX01 KWBC 080024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC TUE SEP 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072009) 20090908 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090908 0000 090908 1200 090909 0000 090909 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 25.3W 12.8N 28.1W 13.5N 31.2W 14.0N 33.9W
BAMD 12.4N 25.3W 12.9N 27.7W 13.6N 29.7W 14.6N 31.6W
BAMM 12.4N 25.3W 12.9N 27.6W 13.7N 29.8W 14.5N 31.9W
LBAR 12.4N 25.3W 12.9N 27.8W 13.6N 30.4W 14.4N 33.0W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090910 0000 090911 0000 090912 0000 090913 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 36.0W 14.5N 36.8W 14.1N 33.8W 13.4N 32.2W
BAMD 15.8N 33.1W 19.0N 34.3W 22.1N 33.2W 25.0N 33.4W
BAMM 15.5N 33.6W 17.7N 35.1W 19.5N 34.0W 21.6N 33.5W
LBAR 15.7N 35.1W 19.7N 38.1W 23.4N 37.7W 27.1N 37.0W
SHIP 58KTS 61KTS 58KTS 45KTS
DSHP 58KTS 61KTS 58KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 25.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 22.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 19.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Latest loop.

[expat2carib]

Off topic....... In a way on topic....

QuikSCAT
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Quikscat)
QuikSCAT

QuikSCAT
Organization JPL, NASA
Mission Type Earth observation
Contractor Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp.
Satellite of Earth
Launch June 19, 1999 on a Titan 23G
Launch site Vandenberg Air Force Base
Mission duration 2–3 years
Mass 971 kg (launch)
Webpage winds.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/quikscat/
Orbital elements
Semimajor Axis 7180.8 km
Eccentricity 0.00014
Inclination 98.6 degrees
Orbital Period 100.93 minutes
Right ascension of the ascending node 178.47 degrees
Argument of perigee 47.4 degrees
Instruments
SeaWinds microwave radar that measures near-surface wind speed and direction
The QuikSCAT (Quick Scatterometer) is an earth-observing satellite that provides wind speed and direction information over oceans to NOAA. It is a "quick recovery" mission to fill the gap created by the loss of data from the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) that was lost in June 1997. It is in a sun-synchronous low-earth orbit.
Built in record time in just 12 months, the ocean-observing satellite was launched June 19, 1999, on a Titan II rocket from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base. It circles Earth at an altitude of 800 kilometers (500 miles) once every 101 minutes, passing close to Earth’s north and south poles. The scatterometer instrument it carries is known as Seawinds.
In light of the 2003 failure of the ADEOS II satellite that was meant to succeed the NSCAT, QuikSCAT is currently the only US-owned instrument in orbit that measures surface winds over the oceans.[1] The European Space Agency has its own scatterometers in orbit, such as ERS-2.
However, because it is now running on a backup transmitter and having other problems, this satellite could fail at any moment, which some believe may reduce the confidence in forecasting tropical storms.[2]
Replacement of this satellite remains a topic of debate. Although NHC forecasters occasionally cite the data provided by QuikSCAT, some do not feel that the value of the data warrants the expenditure that would be necessary for replacement of the satellite with a similar instrument, but rather advocate development of a more advanced satellite.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quikscat

Anybody knows if there are any plans replacing this "gadget"?

[brunota2003]

occasionally cite the data provided by QuikSCAT? they dont read very many discussions, do they?

[OURAGAN]

it's going south west for the moment

[cycloneye]

Derek,I know what you think about the GFS ensembles but for the record I am posting them.

[caribepr]

Latest loop.

That can just go north any time now!