EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[HURAKAN]

First visible

[KWT]

Looks totally textbook to me there Hurakan, looks like a verey powerful hurricane.

Chacor, I agree but the NHC is matching the Dvorak strength to the letter, they are following it totally which makes sense since there really isn't anything else to base on right now but with systems like this its well know that Dvorak can run low.

[cycloneye]

Eye looks like a crater in the moon.Thankfully is well away from coast.

[bombarderoazul]

Looks like a cat 4 at the moment.

[funster]

Wow Jimena looks amazing.

[HURAKAN]

AMAZING STORM

[KWT]

Sure looks like a category-4, I reckon this is probably between 125-130kts right now...really do need recon in this one given it looks like a landfall threat.

[Chacor]

WTPZ33 KNHC 301432
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

...JIMENA INTENSIFIES FURTHER...

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 515 MILES
...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.3N 106.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the forecast, it will be hugging the Baha...could it shift back into the Gulf of California where it can hold its strength?

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 301437
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

JIMENA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN EXTREMELY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB
WASHINGTON...WHICH EQUATES TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
KT OR CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE INNER CORE...WHICH IS NOT
VERY PREDICTABLE. NONETHELESS...SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND...SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS IS BASED ON A
MOTION NEAR AND OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER SINCE THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD...THE 4 AND 5 DAY INTENSITIES ARE ALSO HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA APPEARS TO DEPEND ON TWO MAIN FACTORS...A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD AND
WEAKENING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD...WHEREAS THE HWRF AND
GFDL DO NOT WEAKEN THE LOW OR BUILD THE RIDGE AS MUCH.
CONSEQUENTLY THE GFDL/HWRF TAKE JIMENA BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE
RIDGE...AND OVER BAJA OR MAINLAND MEXICO WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT JIMENA TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF BAJA. AS A COMPROMISE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AND
MOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

INTEREST IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.3N 106.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.1N 107.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 18.4N 108.3W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.0N 109.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W 90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Chacor]

WTPZ43 KNHC 301437
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

JIMENA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN EXTREMELY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB
WASHINGTON...WHICH EQUATES TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
KT OR CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE INNER CORE...WHICH IS NOT
VERY PREDICTABLE. NONETHELESS...SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND...SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS IS BASED ON A
MOTION NEAR AND OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER SINCE THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD...THE 4 AND 5 DAY INTENSITIES ARE ALSO HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA APPEARS TO DEPEND ON TWO MAIN FACTORS...A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD AND
WEAKENING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD...WHEREAS THE HWRF AND
GFDL DO NOT WEAKEN THE LOW OR BUILD THE RIDGE AS MUCH.
CONSEQUENTLY THE GFDL/HWRF TAKE JIMENA BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE
RIDGE...AND OVER BAJA OR MAINLAND MEXICO WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT JIMENA TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF BAJA. AS A COMPROMISE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AND
MOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

INTEREST IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.3N 106.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.1N 107.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 18.4N 108.3W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.0N 109.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W 90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

[Chacor]

That still currently shows the 2 am track.

[cycloneye]

That still currently shows the 2 am track.

It changes automaticly.

[KWT]

Looks like being the biggest threat of a Mexico landfall since Lane, so this one is well worth watching!

[Chacor]

Surely it'd be better to post specific, non-dynamic images (for example, save it to imageshack)? Makes the thread easier to follow...

Anyway, still waiting for TCPOD.

[hawaiigirl]

looks like Baja's going to get hit hard

[leaf blower]

For someone who knows very little about that area can anyone tell me. Is the baja peninsula low lying and densely populated at all? That storm looks like it will push a massive storm surge in to the inlet.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive

[Chacor]

It's a fairly mountainous area, most storms that go down the Gulf of California or over the Baja Peninsula don't survive for long.